501 Evans Ave · Keenesburg, CO 80643

$440,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,439 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 2021 6,098 sqft lot Est $441k · at est. $45/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully maintained, 5-year-old home in the charming town of Keenesburg! Sitting on a large corner lot, this home offers ample space both inside and out, perfect for family living and entertaining. With 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, there's plenty of room for everyone, not to mention a 2.875 Assumable VA loan! The open-concept floor plan creates a welcoming atmosphere, while large windows allow natural light to flood the home. The kitchen boasts modern appliances, sleek countertops, and plenty of storage offered with a large pantry, making it ideal for preparing delicious meals. The spacious living and dining areas flow seamlessly, offering versatility for any occasion. The primary suite features a spacious layout with an ensuite bath, providing a serene escape after a long day. Each additional bedroom is generously sized, offering comfort and flexibility for your needs. With a large corner lot, the backyard is perfect for outdoor activities, gardening, or simply relaxing in your own private space. Whether you're hosting gatherings or enjoying quiet moments, the outdoor space has endless potential. This home is ready to move in and waiting for you to make it your own!

Key facts

• Large corner lot
• Modern appliances
• Ensuite bath

Tags

• LARGE CORNER LOT
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• MODERN APPLIANCES
• LARGE PANTRY
• ENSUITE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $440k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $138 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $376k (14.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $376k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#296 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Weld County School District Re-3J (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #64 of 86 in CO (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Hoff Elementary School (math 10% / reading 24%, grade F, #747 of 966 statewide, top 80%, 319 students, 42% FRL); Weld Central Middle School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #207 of 270 statewide, top 79%, 525 students, 53% FRL); Weld Central Senior High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #220 of 381 statewide, top 59%, 697 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $376,075 (14.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.35%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $441,459
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
595 E Kiser Ave	0.24mi	4/3.0	2,324 (-5%)	4mo	$370,000	$159	77
15 Johnson Cir	0.38mi	4/3.0	2,595 (+6%)	8mo	$445,000	$171	65
70 S Lambert St	0.52mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,460 (+1%)	13mo	$492,100	$200	59
105 Johnson Cir	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,618 (+7%)	10mo	$445,500	$170	56
520 E Kiser Ave	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,772 (+14%)	10mo	$490,000	$177	56
25 Johnson Cir	0.38mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,248 (-8%)	11mo	$407,000	$181	55
210 E Gandy Ave	0.64mi	4/1.0	2,520 (+3%)	2mo	$158,000	$63	55
60 N Miller St	0.38mi	4/2.0	2,616 (+7%)	22mo	$485,000	$185	47
320 E Lambert Ct	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,494 (+2%)	23mo	$490,000	$196	44
255 S Trader St	0.72mi	3/4.0 (-1)	2,500 (+2%)	21mo	$485,000	$194	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-62,554
• Equity at exit: $65,605

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-43,408
• Equity at exit: $38,043

Cash invested: $123,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80643

• Home prices YoY: -5.7%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,761 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax from tax record: −$297 /mo · $3,562/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$790
• Net cashflow: $138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,586

Max offer price $440,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $387	-5% $263	+0% $138	+5% $14	+10% $-111
Rent	-10% $-159	-5% $-10	+0% $138	+5% $287	+10% $436
Rate	-1.0pp $360	-0.5pp $250	base $138	+0.5pp $24	+1.0pp $-92

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $110,000
• Closing costs: $13,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-03-24
   status Pending 1216-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1216 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully maintained, 5-year-old home in the charming town of Keenesburg! Sitting on a large corner lot, this home offers ample space both inside and out, perfect for family living and entertaining. With 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, there's plenty of room for everyone, not to mention a 2.875 Assumable VA loan! The open-concept floor plan creates a welcoming atmosphere, while large windows allow natural light to flood the home. The kitchen boasts modern appliances, sleek countertops, and plenty of storage offered with a large pantry, making it ideal for preparing delicious meals. The spacious living and dining areas flow seamlessly, offering versatility for any occasion. The primary suite features a spacious layout with an ensuite bath, providing a serene escape after a long day. Each additional bedroom is generously sized, offering comfort and flexibility for your needs. With a large corner lot, the backyard is perfect for outdoor activities, gardening, or simply relaxing in your own private space. Whether you're hosting gatherings or enjoying quiet moments, the outdoor space has endless potential. This home is ready to move in and waiting for you to make it your own!

2. 2026-03-23
   status Pending 1216-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1216 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully maintained, 5-year-old home in the charming town of Keenesburg! Sitting on a large corner lot, this home offers ample space both inside and out, perfect for family living and entertaining. With 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, there's plenty of room for everyone, not to mention a 2.875 Assumable VA loan! The open-concept floor plan creates a welcoming atmosphere, while large windows allow natural light to flood the home. The kitchen boasts modern appliances, sleek countertops, and plenty of storage offered with a large pantry, making it ideal for preparing delicious meals. The spacious living and dining areas flow seamlessly, offering versatility for any occasion. The primary suite features a spacious layout with an ensuite bath, providing a serene escape after a long day. Each additional bedroom is generously sized, offering comfort and flexibility for your needs. With a large corner lot, the backyard is perfect for outdoor activities, gardening, or simply relaxing in your own private space. Whether you're hosting gatherings or enjoying quiet moments, the outdoor space has endless potential. This home is ready to move in and waiting for you to make it your own!

3. 2026-01-12
   listed $440,000 Active 1216-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1216 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully maintained, 5-year-old home in the charming town of Keenesburg! Sitting on a large corner lot, this home offers ample space both inside and out, perfect for family living and entertaining. With 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, there's plenty of room for everyone, not to mention a 2.875 Assumable VA loan! The open-concept floor plan creates a welcoming atmosphere, while large windows allow natural light to flood the home. The kitchen boasts modern appliances, sleek countertops, and plenty of storage offered with a large pantry, making it ideal for preparing delicious meals. The spacious living and dining areas flow seamlessly, offering versatility for any occasion. The primary suite features a spacious layout with an ensuite bath, providing a serene escape after a long day. Each additional bedroom is generously sized, offering comfort and flexibility for your needs. With a large corner lot, the backyard is perfect for outdoor activities, gardening, or simply relaxing in your own private space. Whether you're hosting gatherings or enjoying quiet moments, the outdoor space has endless potential. This home is ready to move in and waiting for you to make it your own!

4. 2026-01-12
   listed $440,000 Active 1216-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1216 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully maintained, 5-year-old home in the charming town of Keenesburg! Sitting on a large corner lot, this home offers ample space both inside and out, perfect for family living and entertaining. With 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, there's plenty of room for everyone, not to mention a 2.875 Assumable VA loan! The open-concept floor plan creates a welcoming atmosphere, while large windows allow natural light to flood the home. The kitchen boasts modern appliances, sleek countertops, and plenty of storage offered with a large pantry, making it ideal for preparing delicious meals. The spacious living and dining areas flow seamlessly, offering versatility for any occasion. The primary suite features a spacious layout with an ensuite bath, providing a serene escape after a long day. Each additional bedroom is generously sized, offering comfort and flexibility for your needs. With a large corner lot, the backyard is perfect for outdoor activities, gardening, or simply relaxing in your own private space. Whether you're hosting gatherings or enjoying quiet moments, the outdoor space has endless potential. This home is ready to move in and waiting for you to make it your own!

5. 2025-04-04
   historical
6. 2025-04-04
   historical
7. 2025-03-07
   listed $510,000 Active
8. 2025-03-07
   listed $510,000 Active
9. 2021-10-22
   soldstatus $505,900 Closed
10. 2021-10-22
    soldstatus $505,900
11. 2021-10-07
    status Pending
12. 2021-09-15
    price $505,900
13. 2021-09-09
    price $504,900
14. 2021-09-07
    price $503,900
15. 2021-09-07
    status Active
16. 2021-05-05
    historical
17. 2021-05-05
    price $496,900
18. 2021-05-05
    listed $496,900
19. 2021-05-05
    listed $505,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,562 · $297/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,562 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,129
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,647
• − Property taxes: −$3,562
• − Insurance: −$2,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,610
• − Management: −$3,610
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$12,800
• Taxable loss: −$5,840
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,402
• After-tax cash flow: $3,063/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weld County School District Re-3J
• NCES district ID: 0804920
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $60,814
• Composite: 22.63/100
• National rank: #8062
• State rank: #64 of 86 in CO

Livability — Keenesburg

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #296
• US rank: #20911

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime B Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keenesburg, CO
• City population: 4,257
• Population (ZIP): 4,257

Population outlook (Weld County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 351,957 people
• By 2030: 385,304 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 451,818 · +28.4%
• By 2050: 514,478 · +46.2%
• By 2075: 648,733 · +84.3%
• By 2100: 720,400 · +104.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 7% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Weld

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.0) · D 38.2% · R 59.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.0 2020: R+18.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+13.2 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.47%
• Current HPI: 287.5564
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-11.5% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Pending — IRES
• 2026-03-23 Pending — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Listed $440,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Listed $440,000 IRES
• 2025-04-04 Listing Removed — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-04 Listing Removed — IRES
• 2025-03-07 Listed $510,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-07 Listed $510,000 IRES
• 2021-10-22 Sold (MLS) $505,900 IRES
• 2021-10-22 Sold (MLS) $505,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-07 Pending — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-15 Price Changed $505,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-09 Price Changed $504,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-07 Price Changed $503,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-07 Relisted — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-05 Listed $505,900 IRES
• 2021-05-05 Listed $496,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-05 Price Changed $496,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-05 Listing Removed — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+140.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,562 · -20.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.