580 S Mike Cir · Meadow Lakes, AK 99623

$199,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Other public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1984 6,970 sqft lot $192/sqft · 43% below area Est $351k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ranch style home w/open living layout. 2BR/1BA - Both bedrooms have walk-in closets. Surrounded by trees. Attached shed for additional storage. Located close to highway for quick, easy access to City of Wasilla. Do not miss out on this opportunity for sweat equity! Call today to schedule a showing!

Key facts

• Walk-in closets
• Open living layout
• Surrounded by trees

Tags

• OPEN LIVING LAYOUT
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• ATTACHED SHED
• SURROUNDED BY TREES
• CLOSE TO HIGHWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($119/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.2% in Meadow Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#187 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 414 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $173,608 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.21%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $351,090
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -43.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-31,449
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-25,291
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99623

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,736 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$230 /mo · $2,760/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,724

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $123	-5% $66	+0% $10	+5% $-47	+10% $-103
Rent	-10% $-127	-5% $-59	+0% $10	+5% $78	+10% $147
Rate	-1.0pp $111	-0.5pp $61	base $10	+0.5pp $-42	+1.0pp $-95

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1622 S Blue Duck Cir Unit 2 Wasilla, AK	3.0	2.0	1129	$1,900	$1.68	15d	1	0.88mi
1635 S Pollywog Pl Unit B Wasilla, AK	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,900	$1.73	15d	1	0.94mi
6850 W Lilly Pad Cir Unit 3 Wasilla, AK	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	24d	1	1.03mi
1090 Salmonberry St Unit 2 Wasilla, AK	2.0	1.0	825	$1,200	$1.45	45d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,900 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-04-09
    listed $219,900 Active 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Ranch style home w/open living layout. 2BR/1BA - Both bedrooms have walk-in closets. Surrounded by trees. Attached shed for additional storage. Located close to highway for quick, easy access to City of Wasilla. Do not miss out on this opportunity for sweat equity! Call today to schedule a showing!

17. 2022-03-29
    soldstatus
18. 2022-01-29
    status Pending
19. 2022-01-12
    price $195,000
20. 2021-11-23
    listed $200,000 Active
21. 2015-01-29
    soldstatus
22. 2014-09-12
    listed $139,000
23. 2014-07-28
    soldstatus
24. 2001-04-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,760 · $230/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,760 · $230/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,833
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,760
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,667
• − Management: −$1,667
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$3,273
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$785
• After-tax cash flow: $904/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Meadow Lakes

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #24629

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Meadow Lakes, AK
• County: Matanuska Susitna Borough · 100,174 people
• City population: 23,424
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 23,424
• Household income: $88,799
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 285.0

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 10% Native American 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.82%
• Current HPI: 200.2242
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.17%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+58.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $219,900 AKMLS
• 2022-03-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-01-29 Pending — AKMLS
• 2022-01-12 Price Changed $195,000 AKMLS
• 2021-11-23 Listed $200,000 AKMLS
• 2015-01-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-09-12 Listed $139,000 AKMLS
• 2014-07-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-04-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,760 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.