2407 E Main St · Belleville, IL 62221

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 880 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 105 Days on market

Built 1925 0.38 ac lot Est $127k · 18% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Two homes situated on a spacious 0.38 acre lot! You can live in one home & rent the other or if you have an extended family or want to own a short term rental this would be perfect. The front home has 3 bedrooms & 1 full bath, Large living room, kitchen (with smart Range included), separate dining room - with 880 finished Sq Ft plus a full unfinished basement (with new sump pump). The 2nd home / cottage has been updated & includes 2 bedrooms, 1 full bath, living room, kitchen w appliances & laundry area - with 684 finished Sq Ft. Both homes have a newer water heater approx 3 yrs old and New A/C, 2025. Total living area of 1564 sq ft includes both homes. Buyer to veri

Key facts

• 0.38 acre lot
• Built 1925
• Listed 105 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $24 ($288/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#142 in IL, #2,604 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities D-.
• Belleville Twp Hsd 201 (suburban): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #308 of 620 in IL (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Belleville High School-East (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #241 of 693 statewide, top 35%, 2,568 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 157 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $93k; list at $150k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,081 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.69%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $126,720
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2104 E C St	0.28mi	3/1.0	864 (-2%)	2mo	$119,500	$138	78
2125 E B St	0.36mi	3/1.0	884 (+0%)	2mo	$115,000	$130	76
2105 E B St	0.27mi	3/1.0	800 (-9%)	2mo	$133,900	$167	67
134 N Florida Ave	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	880 (0%)	3mo	$49,900	$57	67
2006 E D St	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	978 (+11%)	11mo	$149,900	$153	49
1803 E Belle Ave	0.52mi	2/1.5 (-1)	963 (+9%)	9mo	$139,000	$144	45
1644 N Church St	0.75mi	2/1.0 (-1)	832 (-6%)	4mo	$129,900	$156	44
1307 West Blvd	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (+9%)	10mo	$109,900	$114	43
1806 E D St	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	782 (-11%)	13mo	$110,000	$141	43
1101 West Blvd	0.67mi	3/1.0	960 (+9%)	12mo	$154,900	$161	40
27 Michigan Ave	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	768 (-13%)	8mo	$115,000	$150	40
101 Glencoe Dr	0.52mi	3/1.0	988 (+12%)	18mo	$99,900	$101	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-17,277
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $11,462
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62221

• Home prices YoY: -24.2%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,301 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,854/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,270

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $109	-5% $66	+0% $24	+5% $-18	+10% $-61
Rent	-10% $-79	-5% $-27	+0% $24	+5% $75	+10% $127
Rate	-1.0pp $100	-0.5pp $62	base $24	+0.5pp $-15	+1.0pp $-54

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1717 La Salle St Belleville, IL	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,350	$1.22	24d	1	0.61mi
537 Vicksburg Dr Unit h Belleville, IL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,190	$1.25	16d	1	0.71mi
2917 West Blvd Belleville, IL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,025	$1.02	15d	1	0.76mi
1528 Lebanon Ave Belleville, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,095	$1.22	13d	1	0.78mi
1320 Sangamon Dr Belleville, IL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,145	$1.21	2d	1	0.99mi
1400 Sangamon Dr Belleville, IL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,120	$1.18	2d	1	1.03mi
1671 Shadow Ridge Ct Belleville, IL	1.0–2.0	1.0	815	$1,325	$1.62	2d	12	1.12mi
535 Williamsburg Dr Belleville, IL	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$1,866	$2.67	2d	6	1.21mi
223 Anderson Ln Belleville, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,190	$1.19	24d	1	1.26mi
1104 Bel Aire Dr Belleville, IL	2.0	1.0	780	$1,350	$1.73	2d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-04
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-19
   listed $150,000 Active
3. 2025-11-17
   historical $150,000
4. 2022-06-28
   soldstatus $93,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,854 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,630 · $219/mo
• Expected delta: +$775/yr (+$65/mo · 41.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,610
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,854
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,249
• − Management: −$1,249
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$2,258
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$542
• After-tax cash flow: $830/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belleville Twp Hsd 201
• NCES district ID: 1705640
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,064
• Composite: 22.39/100
• National rank: #8115
• State rank: #308 of 620 in IL

Livability — Belleville

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #2604

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Belleville, IL
• County: Saint Clair County · 169,691 people
• City population: 47,407
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 29,875
• Household income: $82,271
• Rent vs Own: 34.8% rent · 65.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 658.0

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 250,366 people
• By 2030: 240,511 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 217,391 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 192,699 · -23.0%
• By 2075: 140,637 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 100,499 · -59.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 31% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.9) · D 53.0% · R 45.1% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: 7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.9 2020: D+8.7 2016: D+5.6 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.50%
• Current HPI: 167.8124
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.04%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+61.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-19 Listed $150,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-17 Coming Soon $150,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $93,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.2%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,854 · -48.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.