3506 Elm Ave · Lubbock, TX 79404

$145,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1952 0.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country Living with City Utilities. Very quiet and peaceful. Updated inside. Extremely large lot with lots of potential. Close to Lubbock Business Park and Airport. It would be a great investment property. Schedule your showing today and see what this gem has to offer!

Key facts

• City utilities
• Close to airport
• Updated inside

Tags

• CITY UTILITIES
• UPDATED INSIDE
• LARGE LOT
• CLOSE TO LUBBOCK BUSINESS PARK
• CLOSE TO AIRPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $155 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (5.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.59%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.22% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $29,058
• Equity at exit: $67,030

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $87,447
• Equity at exit: $104,748

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79404

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,367 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,250/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,171

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $237	-5% $196	+0% $155	+5% $114	+10% $73
Rent	-10% $47	-5% $101	+0% $155	+5% $209	+10% $263
Rate	-1.0pp $228	-0.5pp $192	base $155	+0.5pp $118	+1.0pp $80

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
515 E Stanford St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	910	$595	$0.65	22d	1	1.20mi
503 E Rice St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1103	$1,150	$1.04	22d	1	1.26mi
2142 N Texas Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1646	$1,499	$0.91	45d	1	1.29mi
509 E Queens St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,050	$0.96	44d	1	1.33mi
2122 N Jayton Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,500	$1.26	14d	1	1.37mi
2125 N Texas Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,299	$0.96	44d	1	1.38mi
2123 N Jayton Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1355	$1,175	$0.87	44d	1	1.39mi
2118 N Jayton Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,325	$0.98	44d	1	1.39mi
2118 N Jayton Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,325	$1.12	22d	1	1.39mi
2117 N Jayton Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,325	$1.12	44d	1	1.41mi
2112 N Jayton Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,325	$1.12	22d	1	1.42mi
2119 North Avenue K Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,450	$1.00	44d	1	1.42mi
2114 North Avenue K Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,350	$1.14	44d	1	1.42mi
2101 N Texas Ave Unit 2-B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,295	$1.09	14d	1	1.43mi
2102 N Jayton Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,450	$1.07	44d	1	1.45mi
2425 N Avenue N Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,450	$1.10	14d	1	1.46mi
2109 North Avenue K Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,299	$0.96	22d	1	1.46mi
2109 North Avenue K Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,299	$0.96	44d	1	1.46mi
2509 N Avenue O Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,349	$1.02	44d	1	1.47mi
2108 N Avenue L Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1355	$1,299	$0.96	44d	1	1.48mi
2608 N Avenue P Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,399	$1.12	14d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $145,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $145,000 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-04-13
    listed $145,000 Active 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    Country Living with City Utilities. Very quiet and peaceful. Updated inside. Extremely large lot with lots of potential. Close to Lubbock Business Park and Airport. It would be a great investment property. Schedule your showing today and see what this gem has to offer!

18. 2020-07-02
    soldstatus
19. 1997-10-01
    soldstatus
20. 1987-01-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,250 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,654 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,404/yr (+$117/mo · 112.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,410
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,250
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,313
• − Management: −$1,313
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$531
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$127
• After-tax cash flow: $1,992/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,529
• Household income: $51,630
• Rent vs Own: 31.0% rent · 69.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 366.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Black 22% White 20% Two or more races 17% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.22%
• Current HPI: 163.854
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $145,000 LARMLS
• 2020-07-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1987-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,250 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.