35151 Colony Hills Dr · Zephyrhills West, FL 33541

$184,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,524 sqft · Manufactured public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1986 6,418 sqft lot Est $180k · at est. $60/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this spacious and beautifully maintained home offering over 1,500 square feet of comfortable living space in a desirable 55+ community where you own your lot! This thoughtfully designed residence features an air-conditioned Florida room for year-round enjoyment, a family room with a wet bar and built-in shelving, and a functional kitchen with a convenient breakfast bar and laundry area located just off the kitchen. The formal dining area includes a charming built-in china buffet, while numerous built-ins throughout the home, including a desk, add both character and practicality. The generous primary suite offers a walk-in closet, walk in shower and dual sinks. Situated on a gorg

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Wet bar
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• FLORIDA ROOM
• WET BAR
• BREAKFAST BAR
• BUILT-IN CHINA BUFFET
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• COVERED FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Senior community
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Colony Hills HOA (buyer approval required); HOA fees $60/month ($720 annually); HOA amenities: clubhouse, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard, tennis courts; Pets allowed (max 20 lbs); Association approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/High-speed internet available; Electric service
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; West-facing
• Construction: Metal frame with vinyl siding; Membrane roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a 0.15-acre lot (approx. 78 x 82)
• Exterior features: Storage; Irrigation equipment; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Living room/dining room combo; Walk-in closet(s); Wet bar
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry with washer and dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $408 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $174k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#772 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School (math 33% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 654 students, 77% FRL); Raymond B. Stewart Middle School (math 33% / reading 30%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 988 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 48% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 862 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,178/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 393% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,806 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.45%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $179,832
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35020 Colony Hills Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,430 (-6%)	9mo	$175,000	$122	74
34911 Buck Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,496 (-2%)	12mo	$120,000	$80	72
35021 Mcculloughs Leap	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-11%)	4mo	$167,000	$124	70
35139 Wagner Way	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (-13%)	8mo	$169,900	$129	64
3842 William Hume Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,429 (-6%)	17mo	$165,000	$115	62
34620 Dustin Ct	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-1%)	15mo	$278,000	$184	60
4100 Carefree Way	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,302 (-15%)	1mo	$139,500	$107	60
3819 Chah Dr	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,395 (-8%)	16mo	$164,000	$118	56
4618 Newcomb Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-10%)	7mo	$115,000	$84	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-10,313
• Equity at exit: $27,569

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $25
• Equity at exit: $15,987

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 862
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,178 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$206 /mo · $2,470/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $408

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,661

Max offer price $184,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $513	-5% $460	+0% $408	+5% $356	+10% $303
Rent	-10% $236	-5% $322	+0% $408	+5% $494	+10% $580
Rate	-1.0pp $501	-0.5pp $455	base $408	+0.5pp $360	+1.0pp $311

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34916 Mulrion Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,100	$1.39	26d	1	0.29mi
36232 Lanier Oaks Pt , FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,700	$1.28	26d	1	0.30mi
34652 Blue Starling St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,650	$1.22	7d	1	0.94mi
5019 Coopers Hawk Pl Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,699	$1.17	12d	1	0.97mi
4410 Sailplane Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1574	$2,100	$1.33	26d	1	1.00mi
34214 Rogallo Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1574	$2,050	$1.30	26d	1	1.01mi
4111 Ryals Rd Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	3.0	1216	$2,195	$1.81	5d	1	1.01mi
34873 Robins Song Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,749	$1.11	4d	1	1.01mi
4235 Ryals Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	2000	$2,250	$1.12	13d	1	1.02mi
34218 Cinder Way Unit 34218 Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1574	$1,950	$1.24	1d	1	1.02mi
34214 Cinder Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1650	$2,200	$1.33	7d	1	1.03mi
34796 Robins Song Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,799	$1.14	21d	1	1.03mi
34747 Double Eagle Ct Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1308	$1,650	$1.26	20d	1	1.08mi
3344 Fresno Pl Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1687	$2,255	$1.34	0d	1	1.09mi
34718 Kircher Dr Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1970	$2,600	$1.32	26d	1	1.19mi
34751 Telluride Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1964	$2,200	$1.12	7d	1	1.22mi
5224 Braddock Dr Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	2089	$2,150	$1.03	26d	1	1.22mi
3346 Lapis Lake Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1760	$1,975	$1.12	1d	1	1.24mi
3328 Lapis Lake Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1597	$1,999	$1.25	12d	1	1.25mi
34325 Smart Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,065	$1.37	5d	1	1.28mi
33976 Lusitano Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1251	$2,895	$2.31	0d	70	1.34mi
33780 Charleston Club Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$2,360	$2.23	1d	13	1.38mi
5137 Benjamin Eric St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,050	$1.25	1d	1	1.38mi
35940 Inspiration Dr Zephyrhills, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1034	$2,201	$2.13	1d	22	1.40mi
35759 Sunflower Hill Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1584	$2,400	$1.52	13d	1	1.41mi
35029 Brackett Bnd Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1939	$2,400	$1.24	13d	1	1.46mi
34350 Redwood Dawn Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,350	$1.40	7d	1	1.46mi
2883 Peony Prairie Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,099	$1.25	13d	1	1.48mi
34276 Redwood Dawn Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,500	$1.49	26d	1	1.49mi
34272 Redwood Dawn Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1758	$2,300	$1.31	1d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $184,900 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,900 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,900 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,900 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,900 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,900 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $184,900 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $184,900 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $184,900 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $184,900 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $184,900 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $184,900 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $184,900 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,900 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-04-03
    listed $184,900 Active
16. 2022-03-10
    soldstatus $162,000
17. 2003-12-01
    soldstatus $74,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,133
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$2,470
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,091
• − Management: −$2,091
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable income: $2,100
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$504
• After-tax cash flow: $4,390/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills West

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #772
• US rank: #17403

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+149.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $184,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $162,000 Public Records
• 2003-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $74,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,470 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.