2839 Manatee Rd · Tavares, FL 32778

$143,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1986 Est $168k · 15% under $60/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Excellent location. Community 55+, Property with 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The buyer is responsible for completing their due diligence and home inspections to verify water and septic/sewer connections. The home is being sold in As Is condition. The home is being Sold in As Is condition without any Warranty nor Guarantee by seller. The buyer is responsible for verifying ALL property information, room sizes, utilities and condition. The buyer must deliver an updated copy of the pre-approval letter or Proof of Funds dated within 30 days. The escrow deposit must be in form of Certified Funds and the check must be delivered to the Listing Broker within 48 hours of bid acceptance by HUD. The es

Key facts

• As is condition
• Excellent location
• Garage

Tags

• EXCELLENT LOCATION
• AS IS CONDITION
• WATER AND SEPTIC CONNECTIONS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Universal property ID available; Directions provided
• Financial info: Unfurnished
• HOA & community: Has HOA managed by Top Notch Property Mgmt; HOA fee $60 monthly ($720 annually); Senior community; Cats and dogs allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1-car)
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Private water source; No sewer (none listed); Electricity available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property; One story; Faces north
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Pillar/Post/Pier foundation; Building area ~1,858 sq ft (public records)
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access; No waterfront or water access

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $143k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $520 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $143k).
• Recommended offer: $130k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 4.5% in Tavares — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#220 in FL, #3,464 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 501 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $989 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $143k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,130 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.58%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $168,192
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2828 Manatee Rd	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,144 (-1%)	5mo	$167,500	$146	92

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $11,864
• Equity at exit: $21,322

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $61,037
• Equity at exit: $12,364

Cash invested: $40,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32778

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 501
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,818 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$750
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $564/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $520

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,160

Max offer price $143,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,750
• Closing costs: $4,290
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
500 E Rosewood Ln Unit 154 Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,650	$1.45	23d	1	0.29mi
459 E Rosewood Ln #157 Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,400	$1.13	21d	1	0.32mi
741 W Rosewood Ln Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,195	$1.06	2d	1	0.34mi
4950 Marsh Harbor Dr Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1227	$2,050	$1.67	3d	1	0.45mi
4567 Barbuda Dr Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1362	$2,150	$1.58	23d	1	0.47mi
4721 Treasure Cay Rd Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1372	$2,000	$1.46	14d	1	0.49mi
615 Juniper Way Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,900	$1.57	17d	1	0.65mi
1585 Dead River Rd Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1053	$1,990	$1.89	23d	1	0.84mi
30024 Tavares Ridge Blvd Unit 62 Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$2,000	$1.75	23d	1	1.01mi
2106 Shantiniketan Blvd Unit B6 Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,200	$1.83	4d	1	1.25mi
123 N Lake Ave Tavares, FL	2.0	1.0	1120	$1,595	$1.42	23d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr
• Likely covers: watersewer

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-04
   status $143,000 Pending 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $143,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $143,000 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $143,000 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $143,000 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-05-01
   price $143,000
7. 2026-03-28
   price $162,000
8. 2026-02-27
   listed $180,000 Active
9. 2003-12-19
   soldstatus $74,500
10. 2003-04-22
    soldstatus $70,000
11. 1994-08-31
    soldstatus $53,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $564 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,187 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$622/yr (+$52/mo · 110.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,819
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,010
• − Property taxes: −$564
• − Insurance: −$715
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,746
• − Management: −$1,746
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$4,160
• Taxable income: $4,158
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$998
• After-tax cash flow: $5,241/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tavares

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #3464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tavares, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 25,042
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,042
• Household income: $63,472
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.07%
• Current HPI: 288.7123
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+169.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $143,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $162,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Listed $180,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $74,500 Public Records
• 2003-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 1994-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $564 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.