2119 Messer Rd · Carrabelle, FL 32322

$255,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Manufactured public records · 85 Days on market

Built 2021 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into the coastal lifestyle with this meticulously maintained home just minutes away from the beach! This very clean 2021 mobile home boasts 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms on a sprawling 1-acre lot. The open concept layout is perfect for entertaining, featuring a large kitchen island with bar seating, lots of cabinet storage, and stainless steel appliances. With spacious bedrooms and a master walk in closet this home is perfect for full time living or for your coastal retreat! You'll appreciate the added conveniences of two storage sheds for all your beach gear and an updated 2022 Culligan water conditioning system, ensuring your comfort and peace of mind. Home is situated in an X flood zone, this charming home offers a coastal retreat with a touch of luxury.

Key facts

• Split-bedroom layout
• 30x60 pole barn
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• 30X60 POLE BARN
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT
• SHORT DRIVE TO THE BEACH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Lighthouse Ridge subdivision; Directions: From Highway 98 turn north on Frank McKamey Road, left on Lighthouse Road, right on Lagoon Street then right on Messer; look for sign

Exterior

• Parking: 4 parking spaces; Carport; Detached parking; Driveway; Oversized parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (mobile/manufactured); Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; New construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Irregular interior lot; Lot dimensions 165 x 350 x 80 x 350; 1 acre lot; Zoned for mobile home or single-family residential; New construction

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Kitchen island

🏗️ New construction. The $255,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $246,064.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $256k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($631/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (21.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 1.9% in Carrabelle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#466 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Franklin (rural): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #67 of 73 in FL (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 320 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Franklin County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,798 (21.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.92%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $246,064
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2119 Messer Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,352 (0%)	24mo	$235,000	$174	80
308 Frank Mckamey Way	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-1%)	3mo	$245,000	$182	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-36,592
• Equity at exit: $36,689

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-27,825
• Equity at exit: $21,275

Cash invested: $68,898 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32322

• Home prices YoY: -8.8%
• Active inventory: 320
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,018 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,290
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,785/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,951

Max offer price $246,064

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $192	-5% $122	+0% $53	+5% $-17	+10% $-87
Rent	-10% $-107	-5% $-27	+0% $53	+5% $132	+10% $212
Rate	-1.0pp $176	-0.5pp $115	base $53	+0.5pp $-11	+1.0pp $-76

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,516
• Closing costs: $7,382
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,900 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $255,900 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $255,900 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $255,900 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $255,900 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $255,900 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $255,900 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $255,900 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $255,900 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-05-01
    price $255,900
11. 2026-03-16
    listed $265,900 Active
12. 2026-02-05
    price $279,000
13. 2025-12-19
    price $289,000
14. 2025-08-21
    price $299,000
15. 2024-06-28
    soldstatus $235,000 Closed 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    Step into the coastal lifestyle with this meticulously maintained home just minutes away from the beach! This very clean 2021 mobile home boasts 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms on a sprawling 1-acre lot. The open concept layout is perfect for entertaining, featuring a large kitchen island with bar seating, lots of cabinet storage, and stainless steel appliances. With spacious bedrooms and a master walk in closet this home is perfect for full time living or for your coastal retreat! You'll appreciate the added conveniences of two storage sheds for all your beach gear and an updated 2022 Culligan water conditioning system, ensuring your comfort and peace of mind. Home is situated in an X flood zone, this charming home offers a coastal retreat with a touch of luxury.

16. 2024-06-28
    soldstatus $235,000

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    Step into the coastal lifestyle with this meticulously maintained home just minutes away from the beach! This very clean 2021 mobile home boasts 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms on a sprawling 1-acre lot. The open concept layout is perfect for entertaining, featuring a large kitchen island with bar seating, lots of cabinet storage, and stainless steel appliances. With spacious bedrooms and a master walk in closet this home is perfect for full time living or for your coastal retreat! You'll appreciate the added conveniences of two storage sheds for all your beach gear and an updated 2022 Culligan water conditioning system, ensuring your comfort and peace of mind. Home is situated in an X flood zone, this charming home offers a coastal retreat with a touch of luxury.

17. 2024-05-14
    historical Active Under Contract 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    Step into the coastal lifestyle with this meticulously maintained home just minutes away from the beach! This very clean 2021 mobile home boasts 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms on a sprawling 1-acre lot. The open concept layout is perfect for entertaining, featuring a large kitchen island with bar seating, lots of cabinet storage, and stainless steel appliances. With spacious bedrooms and a master walk in closet this home is perfect for full time living or for your coastal retreat! You'll appreciate the added conveniences of two storage sheds for all your beach gear and an updated 2022 Culligan water conditioning system, ensuring your comfort and peace of mind. Home is situated in an X flood zone, this charming home offers a coastal retreat with a touch of luxury.

18. 2024-03-27
    price $244,000 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    Step into the coastal lifestyle with this meticulously maintained home just minutes away from the beach! This very clean 2021 mobile home boasts 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms on a sprawling 1-acre lot. The open concept layout is perfect for entertaining, featuring a large kitchen island with bar seating, lots of cabinet storage, and stainless steel appliances. With spacious bedrooms and a master walk in closet this home is perfect for full time living or for your coastal retreat! You'll appreciate the added conveniences of two storage sheds for all your beach gear and an updated 2022 Culligan water conditioning system, ensuring your comfort and peace of mind. Home is situated in an X flood zone, this charming home offers a coastal retreat with a touch of luxury.

19. 2024-02-22
    listed $249,900 Active 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    Step into the coastal lifestyle with this meticulously maintained home just minutes away from the beach! This very clean 2021 mobile home boasts 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms on a sprawling 1-acre lot. The open concept layout is perfect for entertaining, featuring a large kitchen island with bar seating, lots of cabinet storage, and stainless steel appliances. With spacious bedrooms and a master walk in closet this home is perfect for full time living or for your coastal retreat! You'll appreciate the added conveniences of two storage sheds for all your beach gear and an updated 2022 Culligan water conditioning system, ensuring your comfort and peace of mind. Home is situated in an X flood zone, this charming home offers a coastal retreat with a touch of luxury.

20. 2022-02-18
    soldstatus $185,000
21. 2022-02-18
    soldstatus $185,000
22. 2021-08-20
    listed $199,000
23. 2021-08-20
    listed $199,000
24. 2020-12-09
    soldstatus $23,500
25. 2020-07-31
    listed $32,000
26. 2019-06-12
    soldstatus $16,500
27. 2019-05-24
    soldstatus $16,500
28. 2019-01-08
    listed $18,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,785 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,124 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: +$339/yr (+$28/mo · 19.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,216
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,783
• − Property taxes: −$1,785
• − Insurance: −$1,230
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,937
• − Management: −$1,937
• − Depreciation: −$7,158
• Taxable loss: −$3,615
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$868
• After-tax cash flow: $1,499/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin
• NCES district ID: 1200570
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,084
• Composite: 29.7/100
• National rank: #6454
• State rank: #67 of 73 in FL

Livability — Carrabelle

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #466
• US rank: #8398

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,348

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,827 people
• By 2030: 11,839 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 11,707 · -1.0%
• By 2050: 11,218 · -5.1%
• By 2075: 9,849 · -16.7%
• By 2100: 7,286 · -38.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 15% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.8) · D 27.7% · R 71.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: -27.9pp · 2024: -43.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.8 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+31.5 2008: R+27.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.76%
• Current HPI: 185.16
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1283.2% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $255,900 RAFGC
• 2026-03-16 Listed $265,900 RAFGC
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $279,000 RAFGC
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $289,000 RAFGC
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $299,000 RAFGC
• 2024-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 2024-06-28 Sold (MLS) $235,000 CATRS
• 2024-05-14 Contingent — CATRS
• 2024-03-27 Price Changed $244,000 CATRS
• 2024-02-22 Listed $249,900 CATRS
• 2022-02-18 Sold (MLS) $185,000 RAFGC
• 2022-02-18 Sold (MLS) $185,000 CATRS
• 2021-08-20 Listed $199,000 RAFGC
• 2021-08-20 Listed $199,000 CATRS
• 2020-12-09 Sold (MLS) $23,500 RAFGC
• 2020-07-31 Listed $32,000 RAFGC
• 2019-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $16,500 Public Records
• 2019-05-24 Sold (MLS) $16,500 RAFGC
• 2019-01-08 Listed $18,500 RAFGC

Property tax history

+23.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,785 · +44.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.