3109 Naylor Rd SE #103 · Washington, DC 20020

$100,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 848 sqft · Condo public records · 202 Days on market

Built 1965 $500/mo HOA · 29% of rent ↓ 44% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CHRISTOPHER CONDOS- PHASE I - Open Sat & Sun 1-4 ~~Luxury~Comfort~Style~ 1 & 2 BR. Cinnamon cabinetry, granite, SS appl, LG washer/dryer, track lighting, walk in closet in master br, HW floors, 1 PARKING SP INCLUDED. Select units feature private patios. Walk to METRO, Good Hope Shopping Center & proposed Skyland Shopping Mall. Incredible Incentives~Ask Agent!

Key facts

• Rec center
• Fort stanton park
• Bus lines

Tags

• CONDO UNIT
• CLOSE PROXIMITY
• NAYLOR ROAD METRO STATION
• BUS LINES
• FORT STANTON PARK
• REC CENTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $179 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 2.5% in Washington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#1 in DC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• District Of Columbia Public Schools (urban): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #8 of 32 in DC (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Capitol Hill Montessori School At Logan (424 students, 0% FRL); Johnson Ms (298 students, 0% FRL); Ballou Hs (657 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 65% district-wide (65 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 298 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,737 units permitted in District of Columbia in 2024 (1,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• District of Columbia County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 202 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 29% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 202 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.52%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.86% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-2,965
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $19,759
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State District of Columbia: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+43
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Washington: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+43

Rent Stabilization Program; TOPA gives tenants right of first refusal.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20020

• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 298
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,733 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $694/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$500
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,507

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $236	-5% $207	+0% $179	+5% $151	+10% $122
Rent	-10% $42	-5% $110	+0% $179	+5% $247	+10% $316
Rate	-1.0pp $229	-0.5pp $204	base $179	+0.5pp $153	+1.0pp $127

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3111 Naylor Rd SE #301 Washington, DC	1.0	1.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	26d	1	0.03mi
3109 Naylor Rd SE Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	655	$1,904	$2.91	9d	1	0.03mi
3107 Naylor Rd SE #301 Washington, DC	1.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	26d	1	0.05mi
3105 Naylor Rd SE Washington, DC	1.0	1.0	750	$1,350	$1.80	14d	1	0.06mi
3105 Naylor Rd SE #104 Washington, DC	1.0	1.0	715	$1,350	$1.89	26d	1	0.06mi
3103 Naylor Rd SE Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	768	$1,650	$2.15	26d	1	0.08mi
3009 Southern Ave SE Temple Hills, MD	3.0	1.0	909	$1,650	$1.82	45d	1	0.08mi
3101 Naylor Rd SE Washington, DC	1.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	0d	1	0.09mi
3035 30th St SE Unit 2M Washington, DC	1.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	26d	1	0.12mi
3035 30th St SE Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	750	$1,350	$1.80	0d	1	0.12mi
3035 30th St SE Unit 3B Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	950	$1,575	$1.66	26d	1	0.12mi
3030 30th St SE Washington, DC	1.0–2.0	1.0	887	$1,500	$1.69	26d	3	0.12mi
3130 Buena Vista Ter SE Unit 6 Washington, DC	3.0	1.0	855	$1,980	$2.32	18d	1	0.13mi
3009 30th St SE Washington, DC	1.0	1.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	5d	1	0.18mi
3158 Buena Vista Ter SE Unit 1 Washington, DC	3.0	1.0	800	$2,900	$3.62	26d	1	0.19mi
3001 Branch Ave Temple Hills, MD	2.0	1.0	769	$2,043	$2.66	0d	40	0.21mi
3212 28th St SE Unit D Washington, DC	3.0	1.0	790	$2,100	$2.66	26d	1	0.27mi
3216 28th St SE #2 Washington, DC	3.0	1.0	600	$2,204	$3.67	26d	1	0.27mi
2847 Gainesville St SE Unit 303 Washington, DC	3.0	1.0	902	$2,400	$2.66	26d	1	0.29mi
2847 Gainesville St SE Unit B2 Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	710	$1,700	$2.39	26d	1	0.29mi
2838 Hartford St SE Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	785	$1,538	$1.96	19d	2	0.30mi
2841 Gainesville St SE #201 Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	784	$1,900	$2.42	4d	1	0.30mi
2838 Hartford St SE #304 Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	775	$1,500	$1.94	4d	1	0.30mi
2716 29th St SE Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	850	$2,000	$2.35	26d	1	0.33mi
2627 Jasper St SE Washington, DC	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	838	$1,729	$2.06	26d	1	0.36mi
2816 Hartford St SE Washington, DC	3.0	1.0	760	$9,000	$11.84	0d	1	0.37mi
2816 Hartford St SE Washington, DC	3.0	1.0	760	$9,000	$11.84	5d	1	0.37mi
2603 Southern Ave SE Hillcrest Heights, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	646	$1,375	$2.13	3d	7	0.40mi
3103 Good Hope Ave Hillcrest Heights, MD	3.0	1.0–2.0	851	$2,303	$2.71	1d	13	0.41mi
2472 Alabama Ave SE Unit B2 Washington, DC	3.0	1.0	827	$2,500	$3.02	26d	1	0.41mi
2833 28th St SE Unit 4 Washington, DC	3.0	1.0	820	$2,200	$2.68	26d	1	0.41mi
2805 28th St SE Unit 1 Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	800	$1,690	$2.11	26d	1	0.42mi
2482 Alabama Ave SE Unit 302 Washington, DC	1.0	1.0	725	$1,350	$1.86	26d	1	0.42mi
2429 Alabama Ave SE Unit 204 Washington, DC	3.0	1.0	635	$2,850	$4.49	23d	1	0.44mi
2936 Knox Pl SE Washington, DC	1.0	1.0	800	$1,750	$2.19	5d	1	0.45mi
2495 Alabama Ave SE Unit 302 Washington, DC	3.0	1.0	825	$2,600	$3.15	23d	1	0.48mi
2621 30th St SE Unit 1 Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	800	$1,750	$2.19	26d	1	0.49mi
2439 25th St SE Washington, DC	1.0	1.0	679	$1,293	$1.90	17d	1	0.59mi
2219 Town Center Dr SE Washington, DC	1.0	1.0	668	$2,045	$3.06	7d	5	0.68mi
3416 Curtis Dr Suitland, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	779	$1,603	$2.06	0d	25	0.80mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $500 · $6,000/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-26
   price $100,000
3. 2025-12-26
   price $110,000
4. 2025-11-13
   price $115,000
5. 2025-10-08
   listed $120,000 Active
6. 2007-04-19
   soldstatus $179,900 379-char remark

   Show marketing remark (379 chars)

   CHRISTOPHER CONDOS- PHASE I - Open Sat & Sun 1-4 ~~Luxury~Comfort~Style~ 1 & 2 BR. Cinnamon cabinetry, granite, SS appl, LG washer/dryer, track lighting, walk in closet in master br, HW floors, 1 PARKING SP INCLUDED. Select units feature private patios. Walk to METRO, Good Hope Shopping Center & proposed Skyland Shopping Mall. Incredible Incentives~Ask Agent!

7. 2007-04-02
   historical 379-char remark

   Show marketing remark (379 chars)

   CHRISTOPHER CONDOS- PHASE I - Open Sat & Sun 1-4 ~~Luxury~Comfort~Style~ 1 & 2 BR. Cinnamon cabinetry, granite, SS appl, LG washer/dryer, track lighting, walk in closet in master br, HW floors, 1 PARKING SP INCLUDED. Select units feature private patios. Walk to METRO, Good Hope Shopping Center & proposed Skyland Shopping Mall. Incredible Incentives~Ask Agent!

8. 2006-12-13
   listed $179,900 379-char remark

   Show marketing remark (379 chars)

   CHRISTOPHER CONDOS- PHASE I - Open Sat & Sun 1-4 ~~Luxury~Comfort~Style~ 1 & 2 BR. Cinnamon cabinetry, granite, SS appl, LG washer/dryer, track lighting, walk in closet in master br, HW floors, 1 PARKING SP INCLUDED. Select units feature private patios. Walk to METRO, Good Hope Shopping Center & proposed Skyland Shopping Mall. Incredible Incentives~Ask Agent!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast DC · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $694 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $694 · $58/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,799
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$694
• − Insurance: −$1,298
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,664
• − Management: −$1,664
• − HOA: −$6,000
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $969
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$233
• After-tax cash flow: $1,914/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: District Of Columbia Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 1100030
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,671
• Composite: 35.84/100
• National rank: #9606
• State rank: #8 of 32 in DC

Livability — Washington

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #5327

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Washington, DC
• County: District of Columbia · 671,873 people
• City population: 671,873
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 53,005
• Household income: $54,032
• Rent vs Own: 69.8% rent · 30.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 5148.0

Population outlook (District of Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 821,926 people
• By 2030: 899,517 · +9.4%
• By 2040: 1,061,162 · +29.1%
• By 2050: 1,231,493 · +49.8%
• By 2075: 1,603,312 · +95.1%
• By 2100: 1,847,141 · +124.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% White 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · District of Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+86.1) · D 91.2% · R 5.1% · Other 3.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 85.9pp · 2024: 86.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+86.1 2020: D+86.8 2016: D+88.7 2012: D+84.2 2008: D+85.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -415.44%
• Current HPI: 306.5068
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.86%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.33%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in DC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$153B
▸Life Sciences / Industrials	1	$25B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$8B

Price history

-44.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $100,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-26 Price Changed $110,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $115,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-08 Listed $120,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-04-19 Sold (MLS) $179,900 MRIS
• 2007-04-02 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-12-13 Listed $179,900 MRIS

Property tax history

-3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $694 · -14.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.