129 Birchwood Rd · Coram, NY 11727

$339,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 936 sqft · Condo public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1975 $362/sqft · 16% below area Est $404k · 16% under $722/mo HOA · 25% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lovely Jarrett model in Bretton Woods. This corner unit has a beautiful location with nice views and a private patio. A half bath was added in the primary bedroom. It's been meticulously maintained. The h/vac system was updated in 2009 and the washer and dryer are new. Bretton Woods is a wonderful place to live that offers something for everyone - indoor and outdoor, pool, golf, basketball and tennis courts, playground and fitness center with sauna. You can be active every day if you want or just relax in the quiet privacy of your home. Pets are allowed.

Key facts

• $722 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1975

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association; Monthly HOA fee of $722; HOA covers cable TV, common area maintenance, exterior maintenance, grounds care, sewer, snow removal, trash, and water; Association amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, sauna, tennis courts, basketball court, playground, maintenance grounds, security, trash service

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Security: Gated community; Security gate
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Trash collection (private); Water connected
• Home design: Condominium; Single-story (1 story); Entry on level 1; Property condition: Actual
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Outdoor space; Pool/Spa access; Gated community with security gate; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One-story unit with rooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bath; Patio
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $339k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-401 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (20.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $292k (14.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.5% in Coram — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#646 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Longwood Central School District (rural): math 61% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #235 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Coram Elementary School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 914 students, 53% FRL); Longwood Junior High School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade A-, #101 of 729 statewide, top 15%, 1,388 students, 48% FRL); Longwood High School (math 90% / reading 77%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 2,977 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 232 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $268,234 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.06%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $404,448
• List price: $339,000
• Delta: -16.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-75,230
• Equity at exit: $50,546

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-76,269
• Equity at exit: $29,311

Cash invested: $94,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11727

• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,916 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $755/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$722
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$612
• Net cashflow: $-401

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,423

Max offer price $268,234

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-209	-5% $-305	+0% $-401	+5% $-497	+10% $-592
Rent	-10% $-631	-5% $-516	+0% $-401	+5% $-285	+10% $-170
Rate	-1.0pp $-230	-0.5pp $-314	base $-401	+0.5pp $-488	+1.0pp $-578

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,750
• Closing costs: $10,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
389 Clubhouse Ct Unit 457 Coram, NY	2.0	2.0	1065	$3,150	$2.96	24d	1	0.18mi
1 Charles Pond Dr Coram, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1061	$3,375	$3.18	0d	1	0.47mi
313 Charles Pond Dr Unit 313 Coram, NY	1.0	1.0	760	$2,550	$3.36	46d	1	0.51mi
1 Villa D'Est Dr Unit D-02 Coram, NY	2.0	1.0	812	$2,695	$3.32	46d	1	0.71mi
1 Villa D'Est Dr Unit B-06 Coram, NY	1.0	1.0	650	$2,350	$3.62	46d	1	0.71mi
1 Villa D'Est Dr Unit D-04 Coram, NY	2.0	1.0	812	$2,695	$3.32	26d	1	0.71mi
100 Villa D'Est Dr Coram, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	891	$3,100	$3.48	46d	1	0.75mi
2002 Vista View Dr Unit 2002 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1021	$2,805	$2.75	46d	1	0.92mi
2204 Vista View Dr Unit 2204 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1021	$2,805	$2.75	46d	1	0.92mi
404 Dunstan Pl Unit 404B Coram, NY	2.0	1.0	907	$2,915	$3.21	46d	1	1.03mi
405 Dunstan Pl Unit 405B Coram, NY	2.0	1.0	907	$2,915	$3.21	46d	1	1.03mi
105 Aycock Pl Unit 0105B Coram, NY	2.0	1.0	907	$2,915	$3.21	0d	1	1.07mi
104 Aycock Pl Unit 0104B Coram, NY	2.0	1.0	907	$2,915	$3.21	0d	1	1.08mi
304 Vista View Dr Unit 304 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1021	$2,835	$2.78	23d	1	1.10mi
204 Vista View Dr Unit 204 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1021	$2,835	$2.78	46d	1	1.11mi
902 Ipswich Pl Unit 902B Coram, NY	2.0	1.0	907	$2,915	$3.21	46d	1	1.18mi
1104 Kingsley Pl Unit 1104B Coram, NY	2.0	1.0	907	$2,915	$3.21	5d	1	1.24mi
1004 Joyner Pl Unit 1004B Coram, NY	2.0	1.0	907	$2,915	$3.21	0d	1	1.25mi
1002 Joyner Pl Unit 1002A Coram, NY	2.0	1.0	907	$2,840	$3.13	46d	1	1.25mi
1005 Joyner Pl Unit 1005B Coram, NY	2.0	1.0	907	$2,915	$3.21	0d	1	1.25mi
1998 New York 112 Coram, NY	2.0	1.0	806	$2,760	$3.42	0d	4	1.25mi
112 Centre Ct Unit 112 Medford, NY	1.0	2.0	810	$2,795	$3.45	46d	1	1.25mi
1202 Longwood Pl Unit 1202B Coram, NY	1.0	1.0	881	$2,350	$2.67	46d	1	1.31mi
32 Country Club Dr Unit 32B Coram, NY	2.0	1.0	980	$2,765	$2.82	46d	1	1.32mi
104 Birchwood Rd Medford, NY	1.0	1.0	808	$2,400	$2.97	1d	1	1.35mi
34 Country Club Dr Unit 34C Coram, NY	2.0	1.0	855	$2,650	$3.10	46d	1	1.37mi
36 Country Club Dr Apt B Coram, NY	1.0	1.0	830	$2,275	$2.74	46d	1	1.39mi
45 Country Club Dr Coram, NY	2.0	1.0	876	$2,795	$3.19	46d	1	1.41mi
1 Homestead Dr Coram, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	658	$2,590	$3.93	3d	6	1.41mi
90 Blue Point Rd Selden, NY	3.0	2.0	1075	$4,850	$4.51	26d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $722 · $8,664/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 561-char remark
2. 2026-04-29
   listed $339,000 Active 561-char remark
3. 2005-08-16
   soldstatus $295,000
4. 1990-01-08
   soldstatus $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $755 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,242 · $270/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,487/yr (+$207/mo · 329.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,988
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,989
• − Property taxes: −$755
• − Insurance: −$1,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,799
• − Management: −$2,799
• − HOA: −$8,664
• − Depreciation: −$9,862
• Taxable loss: −$10,576
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,538
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,269/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Longwood Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619230
• Math proficiency: 61% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $72,748
• Composite: 51.63/100
• National rank: #1703
• State rank: #235 of 590 in NY

Livability — Coram

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #646
• US rank: #12097

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Coram, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 28,495
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 28,495
• Household income: $103,287
• Rent vs Own: 32.5% rent · 67.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 994.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 18% Black 15% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 8% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -571.88%
• Current HPI: 388.8297
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.66%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+208.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Listed $339,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $295,000 Public Records
• 1990-01-08 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $755 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.