102 Elma St · Copalis Beach, WA 98535

$225,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,342 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 105 Days on market

Built 1937 0.55 ac lot $168/sqft · 27% below area Est $310k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for affordable housing or a good investment property? Look no further! This two-bedroom, one bathroom home is in a great location just minutes from a beach access, the Copalis River, and an ocean front state park! With such a fantastic location, the benefits of fishing, clam digging, or traveling to the rain forest are all easily accessible for your enjoyment. Sitting on a large, half acre lot with a big yard, this home needs a little TLC. Whether you want to live here, clean it up a bit and flip it, or use it as a rental, it is ideal for any of those situations. Currently in use as a rental, the tenant is month-to-month and would be willing to stay if you so desired! With so ma

Key facts

• Copalis river
• Beach access
• Large half acre lot

Tags

• BEACH ACCESS
• COPALIS RIVER
• OCEAN FRONT STATE PARK
• LARGE HALF ACRE LOT

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $225,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$309,608) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-393 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (30.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (42.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $129k (42.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#581 in WA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• North Beach School District (rural): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #236 of 291 in WA (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pacific Beach Elementary School (110 students, 84% FRL); North Beach Junior High School (162 students, 78% FRL); North Beach Senior High School (177 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 297 units permitted in Grays Harbor County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
• Grays Harbor County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1937 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $128,989 (42.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1937 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.48%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 14.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $309,608
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -27.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40 Elma St	0.21mi	2/1.0	1,312 (-2%)	14mo	$275,000	$210	74
11 Benner Rd	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,352 (+1%)	19mo	$382,000	$283	54
7 Griffard St	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,392 (+4%)	20mo	$366,000	$263	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $27,727
• Equity at exit: $128,503

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $104,912
• Equity at exit: $222,608

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98535

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 14.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,290 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,655/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $-393

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,787

Max offer price $155,653

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-265	-5% $-329	+0% $-393	+5% $-456	+10% $-520
Rent	-10% $-494	-5% $-444	+0% $-393	+5% $-342	+10% $-291
Rate	-1.0pp $-279	-0.5pp $-335	base $-393	+0.5pp $-451	+1.0pp $-510

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $225,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $225,000 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $225,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 86 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $225,000 Active 85 DOM
17. 2026-03-06
    listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,655 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,205 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: +$550/yr (+$46/mo · 33.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥73°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,479
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,655
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,238
• − Management: −$1,238
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$8,927
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,142
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,568/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Beach School District
• NCES district ID: 5305700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $40,966
• Composite: 34.46/100
• National rank: #10153
• State rank: #236 of 291 in WA

Livability — Copalis Beach

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #581
• US rank: #25857

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Copalis Beach, WA
• Population (ZIP): 598

Population outlook (Grays Harbor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,443 people
• By 2030: 63,255 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 56,466 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 50,516 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,296 · -40.9%
• By 2100: 31,142 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 29% Slovak 4% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grays Harbor

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.0) · D 45.6% · R 51.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: -6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.0 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+7.1 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.07%
• Current HPI: 181.7725
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $225,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,655 · -3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.