27155 Nelsonia Rd · Nelsonia, VA 23308

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,224 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1955 6,534 sqft lot $81/sqft · 41% below area Est $167k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

GREAT PROPERTY WITH PLENTY OF PRIVACY! PRICED JUST RIGHT FOR THE DISCERNING BUYER! COME GET YOUR QUIET ESCAPE TODAY! STAINLESS APPLIANCES, NEWER CABINETS, NEWER ROOF, AND SOME NEW WINDOWS! LOW REAL ESTATE TAXES! WOWZER IN YOUR BROWSER!

Key facts

• Some new windows
• Newer cabinets
• Newer roof

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER CABINETS
• SOME NEW WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $263 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#352 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime A, cost of living A-; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, housing F.
• Accomack County Public School District (rural): math 44% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #99 of 131 in VA (top 76%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 181 units permitted in Accomack County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Accomack County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,515 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.39%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,962
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -31.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.8% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $50,049
• Equity at exit: $67,289

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.80×
• Total profit: $132,985
• Equity at exit: $126,645

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23308

• Home prices YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,073 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $291/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $263

Break-even live

Break-even rent $740

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $99,000 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-05-13
    historical
14. 2026-03-12
    listed $115,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $291 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $812 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$521/yr (+$43/mo · 178.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,878
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$291
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,030
• − Management: −$1,030
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $1,606
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$385
• After-tax cash flow: $2,772/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Accomack County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100060
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,348
• Composite: 43.05/100
• National rank: #3096
• State rank: #99 of 131 in VA

Livability — Nelsonia

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #352
• US rank: #14000

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nelsonia, VA
• Population (ZIP): 2,118

Population outlook (Accomack County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,072 people
• By 2030: 31,425 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 29,685 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 27,748 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 23,396 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 18,774 · -41.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 29% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 13% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 14% Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Accomack

• 2024 margin: R (+13.3) · D 43.0% · R 56.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -1.4pp · 2024: -13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.3 2020: R+9.4 2016: R+11.7 2012: R+3.5 2008: R+1.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.80%
• Current HPI: 149.3044
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $115,000 REINMLS

Property tax history

-2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $291 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.