58 Stirrup Ln #58 · Riverside, CT 06878

$1,100,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,992 sqft · SingleFamily · 19 Days on market

Built 1978 Est $1462k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

EXCEPTIONALLY SPACIOUS HOME W/ WONDERFUL WOODED VWS. RECENT RENOV, WELL MAINTAINED. BOASTS LRG FAM RM W/ BRICK FPL & WETBAR. GREAT STORAGE. MUST SEE. J-3.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1978
• Listed 19 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Silo Hill homeowners association; Community pool; Association covers trash, snow removal, and grounds care

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Condominium; Built in 1978 (effective year 2018); Asphalt roof; Wood siding construction; R-C12 zoning
• Construction: Built 1978 (effective 2018); Wood siding; Asphalt roof; Pool house
• Exterior features: Terrace; Deck; Private pool; Pool house; Adjacent to conservation; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Natural gas heating with forced air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Fireplace (1); Partially finished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.10M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-117 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.08M (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $954k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $954k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.6% in Riverside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#60 in CT, #3,626 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Greenwich School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #12 of 153 in CT (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: North Mianus School (math 83% / reading 81%, grade A+, #11 of 553 statewide, top 3%, 492 students, 3% FRL); Eastern Middle School (math 75% / reading 81%, grade A+, #2 of 175 statewide, top 1%, 784 students, 6% FRL).
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $88k of equity ($8k loan paydown + $80k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$140k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.08M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $698k; list at $1.10M implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $954,482 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.24%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,462,128
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18 Griffith Rd	0.15mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,986 (-0%)	3mo	$1,625,000	$818	85
12 Griffith Rd	0.12mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,086 (+5%)	14mo	$1,360,000	$652	70
11 Perna Ln	0.26mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,891 (-5%)	6mo	$1,312,500	$694	67
46 Old Orchard Rd	0.41mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,044 (+3%)	9mo	$1,500,000	$734	64
31 Thornhill Rd	0.40mi	4/4.0 (+1)	2,074 (+4%)	0mo	$2,050,000	$988	63
152 Valley Rd	0.38mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,100 (+5%)	10mo	$1,410,000	$671	58
27 Sound Beach Ave	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,928 (-3%)	6mo	$1,579,000	$819	57
18 Sound Beach Ave	0.64mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,977 (-1%)	4mo	$1,849,000	$935	57
24 Riverside Ln	0.51mi	3/3.0	1,871 (-6%)	13mo	$1,315,000	$703	53
65 Halsey Dr	0.52mi	4/4.0 (+1)	2,031 (+2%)	11mo	$1,810,000	$891	52
10 Maple Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	2,290 (+15%)	1mo	$1,258,000	$549	38
38 Center Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,200 (+10%)	14mo	$1,475,000	$670	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.28% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $396,136
• Equity at exit: $782,797

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.75×
• Total profit: $1,155,757
• Equity at exit: $1,505,932

Cash invested: $308,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06878

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,545 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,769
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,375 /mo · $16,500/yr
• Insurance: −$458
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,004
• Net cashflow: $-117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,693

Max offer price $1,083,072

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $643	-5% $263	+0% $-117	+5% $-497	+10% $-877
Rent	-10% $-871	-5% $-494	+0% $-117	+5% $260	+10% $637
Rate	-1.0pp $437	-0.5pp $163	base $-117	+0.5pp $-402	+1.0pp $-692

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $275,000
• Closing costs: $33,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8 Perry Pl Riverside, CT	4.0	3.0	2556	$11,500	$4.50	22d	1	0.22mi
45 N Sound Beach Ave Riverside, CT	3.0	2.0	1344	$9,500	$7.07	25d	1	0.29mi
30 Mary Ln Riverside, CT	3.0	1.5	1255	$6,200	$4.94	15d	1	0.38mi
38 Sheephill Rd Riverside, CT	3.0	2.5	2600	$8,200	$3.15	45d	1	0.39mi
44 Riverside Ln Riverside, CT	3.0	3.5	2404	$19,000	$7.90	4d	1	0.41mi
197 Sheephill Rd Unit C Riverside, CT	2.0	3.5	2354	$7,500	$3.19	11d	1	0.43mi
15 Dandy Dr Cos Cob, CT	3.0	2.0	1762	$6,500	$3.69	22d	1	0.47mi
26 Revere Rd Riverside, CT	4.0	2.5	2383	$13,900	$5.83	11d	1	0.49mi
26 Revere Rd Riverside, CT	4.0	2.5	2383	$13,900	$5.83	13d	1	0.49mi
45 Thornhill Rd Riverside, CT	3.0	2.0	1386	$6,500	$4.69	25d	1	0.49mi
18 Cary Rd Riverside, CT	3.0	2.0	1440	$6,950	$4.83	4d	1	0.54mi
272 Valley Rd Unit 2 Cos Cob, CT	2.0	1.0	2423	$2,800	$1.16	25d	1	0.57mi
1465 E Putnam Ave #122 Old Greenwich, CT	2.0	1.5	1344	$4,400	$3.27	45d	1	0.58mi
31 Cognewaugh Rd Cos Cob, CT	3.0	2.0	1620	$6,000	$3.70	25d	1	0.64mi
6 Halsey Dr Old Greenwich, CT	4.0	3.0	2490	$8,500	$3.41	15d	1	0.72mi
81 Cos Cob Ave Unit A Cos Cob, CT	3.0	2.0	1461	$5,900	$4.04	4d	1	0.72mi
25 Arnold St Old Greenwich, CT	4.0	3.0	2490	$10,500	$4.22	25d	1	0.75mi
25 Center Dr Old Greenwich, CT	3.0	2.0	1616	$8,950	$5.54	22d	1	0.77mi
1 Christiano St Unit B Cos Cob, CT	2.0	2.0	2124	$2,800	$1.32	45d	1	0.78mi
78 River Rd #15 Cos Cob, CT	3.0	2.5	2381	$12,000	$5.04	45d	1	0.88mi
78 River Rd #15 Cos Cob, CT	3.0	3.5	2381	$12,000	$5.04	45d	1	0.88mi
14 Cos Cob Ave Unit 3 Cos Cob, CT	3.0	2.5	1900	$6,500	$3.42	45d	1	0.88mi
28 Pleasant St Cos Cob, CT	4.0	2.5	2140	$6,250	$2.92	13d	1	0.93mi
510 W Main St Unit 2ND FL Stamford, CT	3.0	1.0	2027	$3,150	$1.55	4d	1	1.12mi
8 Potter Dr Old Greenwich, CT	4.0	3.0	1979	$10,500	$5.31	45d	1	1.19mi
143 Sound Beach Ave Old Greenwich, CT	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1269	$12,985	$10.23	0d	1	1.23mi
51 Forest Ave Old Greenwich, CT	3.0	3.0	1737	$8,150	$4.69	4d	2	1.28mi
51 Forest Ave #26 Old Greenwich, CT	3.0	3.0	2194	$9,500	$4.33	4d	1	1.28mi
51 Forest Ave #19 Old Greenwich, CT	3.0	2.5	1946	$8,500	$4.37	45d	1	1.28mi
3 River Rd Unit 3 Cos Cob, CT	3.0	1.0	1500	$3,150	$2.10	45d	1	1.34mi
10 Miltiades Ave Riverside, CT	3.0	2.0	1477	$7,600	$5.15	15d	1	1.35mi
25 Weston Hill Rd Riverside, CT	3.0	3.0	2531	$10,950	$4.33	4d	1	1.36mi
4 Highview Ave Old Greenwich, CT	3.0	2.0	1542	$10,000	$6.49	20d	1	1.44mi
14 Shoalpoint Ln Riverside, CT	4.0	2.5	2340	$14,000	$5.98	25d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-29
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-17
   listed $1,100,000 Active
4. 2017-10-03
   historical
5. 2009-10-23
   listed $795,000
6. 2004-12-02
   soldstatus $697,500 160-char remark

   Show marketing remark (160 chars)

   EXCEPTIONALLY SPACIOUS HOME W/ WONDERFUL WOODED VWS. RECENT RENOV, WELL MAINTAINED. BOASTS LRG FAM RM W/ BRICK FPL & WETBAR. GREAT STORAGE. MUST SEE. J-3.

7. 2004-09-07
   listed $729,000 160-char remark

   Show marketing remark (160 chars)

   EXCEPTIONALLY SPACIOUS HOME W/ WONDERFUL WOODED VWS. RECENT RENOV, WELL MAINTAINED. BOASTS LRG FAM RM W/ BRICK FPL & WETBAR. GREAT STORAGE. MUST SEE. J-3.

8. 2004-08-16
   soldstatus
9. 2004-07-19
   listed $769,000
10. 1997-06-09
    soldstatus $334,500
11. 1997-01-13
    listed $369,000
12. 1996-12-31
    soldstatus
13. 1996-09-16
    listed $369,000
14. 1996-05-10
    soldstatus $339,000
15. 1996-03-26
    listed $339,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $114,538
• − Mortgage interest: −$61,617
• − Property taxes: −$16,500
• − Insurance: −$6,166
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,163
• − Management: −$9,163
• − Depreciation: −$32,000
• Taxable loss: −$20,072
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,817
• After-tax cash flow: $3,413/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greenwich School District
• NCES district ID: 0901710
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $129,257
• Composite: 65.67/100
• National rank: #461
• State rank: #12 of 153 in CT

Livability — Riverside

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #3626

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety B User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverside, CT
• City population: 8,446
• Population (ZIP): 8,446

Population outlook (Western Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 685,031

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 13% Two or more races 12% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Salvadoran 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 16% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Western Connecticut

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 58.8% · R 39.7% · Other 1.6%
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.28%
• Current HPI: 198.3808
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+224.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — GMLS
• 2026-04-29 Contingent — GMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $1,100,000 GMLS
• 2017-10-03 Delisted — GMLS
• 2009-10-23 Listed $795,000 GMLS
• 2004-12-02 Sold (MLS) $697,500 GMLS
• 2004-09-07 Listed $729,000 GMLS
• 2004-08-16 Sold (MLS) — GMLS
• 2004-07-19 Listed $769,000 GMLS
• 1997-06-09 Sold (MLS) $334,500 GMLS
• 1997-01-13 Listed $369,000 GMLS
• 1996-12-31 Sold (MLS) — GMLS
• 1996-09-16 Listed $369,000 GMLS
• 1996-05-10 Sold (MLS) $339,000 GMLS
• 1996-03-26 Listed $339,000 GMLS