2603 S 13th St · St. Joseph, MO 64503

$19,500

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 180 Days on market

Built 1915 4,356 sqft lot $18/sqft · 81% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1915

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $887 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $17k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 60.9% vs local median 4.7% in St. Joseph — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Joseph (urban): math 28% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #241 of 324 in MO (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Parkway Elem. (math 33% / reading 40%, grade F, #656 of 1,115 statewide, top 59%, 379 students, 99% FRL); Spring Garden Middle (math 19% / reading 25%, grade F, #332 of 391 statewide, top 86%, 474 students, 99% FRL); Benton High (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #356 of 521 statewide, top 71%, 676 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 53% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 70 units permitted in Buchanan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $135 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $585 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Buchanan County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($17k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $17,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 60.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 194.96%
• DSCR: 9.67
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $105,102
• List price: $19,500
• Delta: -81.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2419 S 10th St	0.23mi	3/1.0 (-1)	950 (-13%)	9mo	$147,000	$155	56
1607 S 14th St	0.71mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,134 (+4%)	1mo	$133,900	$118	53
2403 S 16th St	0.26mi	3/1.0 (-1)	934 (-14%)	8mo	$154,000	$165	52
1626 S 12th St	0.70mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,227 (+12%)	2mo	$129,900	$106	40
2205 Vories St	0.74mi	4/1.5	1,232 (+13%)	4mo	$100,000	$81	39
2102 & 2104 S 14th St	0.43mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,225 (+12%)	21mo	$222,900	$182	38
2709 South 24th St	0.68mi	3/1.0 (-1)	977 (-10%)	23mo	$99,500	$102	26
1525 Duncan St	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (+13%)	12mo	$199,900	$162	26
3802 W Ayrlawn Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,244 (+14%)	24mo	$130,000	$105	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.77×
• Total profit: $53,361
• Equity at exit: $2,908

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 22.85×
• Total profit: $119,310
• Equity at exit: $1,686

Cash invested: $5,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64503

• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$102
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $354/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $887

Break-even live

Break-even rent $177

Max offer price $19,500

Occupancy floor 27%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $898	-5% $893	+0% $887	+5% $882	+10% $876
Rent	-10% $784	-5% $836	+0% $887	+5% $938	+10% $990
Rate	-1.0pp $897	-0.5pp $892	base $887	+0.5pp $882	+1.0pp $877

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,875
• Closing costs: $585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1616 S 25th St Saint Joseph, MO	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,300	$0.87	45d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $19,500 Active 180 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $19,500 Active 179 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $19,500 Active 178 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $19,500 Active 177 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $19,500 Active 176 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $19,500 Active 174 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $19,500 Active 173 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $19,500 Active 170 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $19,500 Active 169 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $19,500 Active 168 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $19,500 Active 164 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $19,500 Active 163 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $19,500 Active 162 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $19,500 Active 161 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $19,500 Active 160 DOM
16. 2026-04-13
    price $19,500
17. 2026-03-15
    price $21,900
18. 2026-03-06
    price $22,500
19. 2026-02-26
    price $22,900
20. 2026-02-07
    price $23,900
21. 2026-01-30
    price $24,500
22. 2025-12-21
    listed $24,900 Active
23. 2025-12-18
    soldstatus
24. 2025-12-07
    historical
25. 2025-10-31
    listed $25,000 Active
26. 2002-02-22
    soldstatus
27. 2002-02-15
    soldstatus
28. 2001-05-10
    listed $14,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $354 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $354 · $30/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,092
• − Property taxes: −$354
• − Insurance: −$98
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$567
• Taxable income: $10,992
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,638
• After-tax cash flow: $8,007/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Joseph
• NCES district ID: 2927060
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,007
• Composite: 27.99/100
• National rank: #6853
• State rank: #241 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Joseph

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Joseph, MO
• City population: 44,382
• Population (ZIP): 11,921

Population outlook (Buchanan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,041 people
• By 2030: 88,401 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 86,220 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 83,603 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 76,750 · -13.8%
• By 2100: 67,623 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Buchanan

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.0) · D 35.2% · R 63.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.2pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -28.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.0 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -128.03%
• Current HPI: 185.3921
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+30.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $19,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-15 Price Changed $21,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $22,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $22,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $23,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $24,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-21 Listed $24,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-12-07 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-31 Listed $25,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-02-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-02-15 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-05-10 Listed $14,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $354 · -32.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.