1 Vilafranca Ln · Hot Springs Village, AR 71909

$159,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 200 Days on market

Built 1975 0.31 ac lot $139/sqft · 10% below area Est $212k · 24% under $113/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable 2 bedroom house that feels like a treehouse from the den! The Arkansas room offers a second gathering space full of windows for morning coffee or a great craft space. A handy heated & cooled workshop space is available under the house for extra storage or projects. The living room has classic parquet wood flooring, vaulted ceilings, and a grand stone fireplace with electric insert for easy ambiance and additional heat source. NEW ROOF and NEW HVAC in 2024 gives peace of mind for ease of maintenance Enjoy the peace and tranquility of Hot Springs Village and its amenities. The lot behind the house is available for purchase as well for added guaranteed privacy.

Key facts

• New hvac
• Vaulted ceilings
• New roof

Tags

• HEATED AND COOLED WORKSHOP
• PARQUET WOOD FLOORING
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• GRAND STONE FIREPLACE
• NEW ROOF
• NEW HVAC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8 ($101/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.6% in Hot Springs Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#76 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Jessieville School District (rural): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #60 of 238 in AR (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Jessieville Elementary School (math 57% / reading 42%, grade D, #93 of 454 statewide, top 23%, 368 students, 99% FRL); Jessieville Middle School (math 38% / reading 48%, grade D-, #70 of 201 statewide, top 38%, 205 students, 98% FRL); Jessieville High School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #164 of 292 statewide, top 61%, 273 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 70% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 770 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $160k implies a 119% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,393 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.23%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $211,680
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -24.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Sabadell Ln	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,172 (+2%)	2mo	$164,000	$140	77
5 Vilafranca Ln	0.03mi	2/1.5	1,040 (-10%)	4mo	$82,405	$79	77
12 Badalona Ln	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,116 (-3%)	4mo	$184,000	$165	74
27 Sonora Way	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,158 (+0%)	3mo	$225,000	$194	68
12 Estella Circle Cir	0.30mi	2/1.5	1,268 (+10%)	1mo	$159,000	$125	66
12 Segovia Dr	0.14mi	2/1.5	1,024 (-11%)	11mo	$142,000	$139	64
4 Tomino Ln	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,080 (-6%)	4mo	$200,000	$185	60
47 Segovia Dr	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,312 (+14%)	2mo	$188,000	$143	59
23 Cullerendo Way	0.60mi	2/1.5	1,226 (+6%)	4mo	$63,000	$51	56
61 Tomino Way	0.66mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,104 (-4%)	3mo	$145,000	$131	53
1 Valls Cir	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-10%)	6mo	$175,000	$168	45
11 Tomino Way	0.54mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,316 (+14%)	11mo	$195,000	$148	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-25,369
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-21,384
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71909

• Home prices YoY: -10.9%
• Active inventory: 770
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,374 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $706/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$113
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,363

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $99	-5% $54	+0% $8	+5% $-37	+10% $-82
Rent	-10% $-100	-5% $-46	+0% $8	+5% $63	+10% $117
Rate	-1.0pp $89	-0.5pp $49	base $8	+0.5pp $-33	+1.0pp $-75

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2 Dulzura Ln Hot Springs Village, AR	2.0	1.5	1120	$1,200	$1.07	46d	1	0.47mi
16 Dulzura Ln Unit 1 Hot Springs, AR	2.0	1.5	1120	$1,100	$0.98	15d	1	0.51mi
143 La Vista Ln Hot Springs Village, AR	2.0	1.5	1028	$1,450	$1.41	25d	1	0.73mi
120 Emperado Way Hot Springs Village, AR	3.0	1.5	1296	$1,300	$1.00	25d	1	0.74mi
4 Astorga Cir Hot Springs Village, AR	2.0	2.0	1020	$1,500	$1.47	25d	1	1.06mi
29 Frontera Cir Hot Springs Village, AR	2.0	2.0	1179	$1,600	$1.36	25d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $113 · $1,356/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $159,900 Active 200 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $159,900 Active 199 DOM
3. 2026-02-13
   status Back on Market 682-char remark

   Show marketing remark (682 chars)

   Adorable 2 bedroom house that feels like a treehouse from the den! The Arkansas room offers a second gathering space full of windows for morning coffee or a great craft space. A handy heated & cooled workshop space is available under the house for extra storage or projects. The living room has classic parquet wood flooring, vaulted ceilings, and a grand stone fireplace with electric insert for easy ambiance and additional heat source. NEW ROOF and NEW HVAC in 2024 gives peace of mind for ease of maintenance Enjoy the peace and tranquility of Hot Springs Village and its amenities. The lot behind the house is available for purchase as well for added guaranteed privacy.

4. 2026-02-10
   historical Take Backups 682-char remark

   Show marketing remark (682 chars)

   Adorable 2 bedroom house that feels like a treehouse from the den! The Arkansas room offers a second gathering space full of windows for morning coffee or a great craft space. A handy heated & cooled workshop space is available under the house for extra storage or projects. The living room has classic parquet wood flooring, vaulted ceilings, and a grand stone fireplace with electric insert for easy ambiance and additional heat source. NEW ROOF and NEW HVAC in 2024 gives peace of mind for ease of maintenance Enjoy the peace and tranquility of Hot Springs Village and its amenities. The lot behind the house is available for purchase as well for added guaranteed privacy.

5. 2025-11-12
   listed $159,900 Active 682-char remark

   Show marketing remark (682 chars)

   Adorable 2 bedroom house that feels like a treehouse from the den! The Arkansas room offers a second gathering space full of windows for morning coffee or a great craft space. A handy heated & cooled workshop space is available under the house for extra storage or projects. The living room has classic parquet wood flooring, vaulted ceilings, and a grand stone fireplace with electric insert for easy ambiance and additional heat source. NEW ROOF and NEW HVAC in 2024 gives peace of mind for ease of maintenance Enjoy the peace and tranquility of Hot Springs Village and its amenities. The lot behind the house is available for purchase as well for added guaranteed privacy.

6. 2025-11-12
   listed $159,900 New Listing 682-char remark

   Show marketing remark (682 chars)

   Adorable 2 bedroom house that feels like a treehouse from the den! The Arkansas room offers a second gathering space full of windows for morning coffee or a great craft space. A handy heated & cooled workshop space is available under the house for extra storage or projects. The living room has classic parquet wood flooring, vaulted ceilings, and a grand stone fireplace with electric insert for easy ambiance and additional heat source. NEW ROOF and NEW HVAC in 2024 gives peace of mind for ease of maintenance Enjoy the peace and tranquility of Hot Springs Village and its amenities. The lot behind the house is available for purchase as well for added guaranteed privacy.

7. 2025-11-10
   historical
8. 2025-08-13
   status Back on Market
9. 2025-08-06
   historical Take Backups
10. 2025-07-21
    price $159,900
11. 2025-07-21
    price $159,900
12. 2025-05-29
    price $165,000
13. 2025-05-29
    price $165,000
14. 2025-05-09
    listed $167,000 New Listing
15. 2014-09-04
    historical
16. 2014-03-03
    listed $89,900
17. 2001-02-02
    soldstatus $73,000
18. 1996-07-01
    soldstatus $83,000
19. 1994-03-15
    soldstatus $68,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $706 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,023 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$318/yr (+$26/mo · 45.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,487
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$706
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,319
• − Management: −$1,319
• − HOA: −$1,356
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$2,620
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$629
• After-tax cash flow: $730/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jessieville School District
• NCES district ID: 0507920
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,066
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5003
• State rank: #60 of 238 in AR

Livability — Hot Springs Village

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #8970

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hot Springs Village, AR
• County: Saline County · 77,216 people
• City population: 18,449
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 18,449
• Household income: $75,433
• Rent vs Own: 12.0% rent · 88.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 207.0

Population outlook (Garland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,343 people
• By 2030: 101,880 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 104,804 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 107,292 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 113,182 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 112,247 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.2) · D 30.8% · R 67.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.2 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.00%
• Current HPI: 195.9499
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+135.1% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2025-11-12 Listed $159,900 HSBOR
• 2025-11-12 Listed $159,900 CARMLS
• 2025-11-10 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-08-13 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2025-08-06 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $159,900 CARMLS
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $159,900 HSBOR
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed $165,000 CARMLS
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed $165,000 HSBOR
• 2025-05-09 Listed $167,000 CARMLS
• 2014-09-04 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2014-03-03 Listed $89,900 CARMLS
• 2001-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 1996-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records
• 1994-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $706 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.