945 San Ildefonso Road Rd #73 · Los Alamos, NM 87544

$96,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured · 116 Days on market

Built 1998 Est $96k · at est. ↓ 13% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nice manufactured home is a quiet location ready to occupy. Fully fenced yard. . 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms. Gas stove range. Washer & Dryer included. Metal roof, new skirting. Evaporative cooling. New entry steps and deck. Carpet and engineered wood flooring. Two storage sheds.

Key facts

• Gas stove range
• Metal roof
• New skirting

Tags

• FULLY FENCED YARD
• GAS STOVE RANGE
• METAL ROOF
• NEW SKIRTING
• EVAPORATIVE COOLING
• NEW ENTRY STEPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $96k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $96k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#2 in NM, #1,377 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Los Alamos Public Schools (town): math 61% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #2 of 29 in NM (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 14 units permitted in Los Alamos County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $664 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Alamos County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,360 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 74.39%
• DSCR: 4.31
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $96,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
945 San Ildefonso Road Rd #73	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,280 (0%)	1mo	$96,000	$75	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 74.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.37×
• Total profit: $90,616
• Equity at exit: $14,314

10-year hold

• IRR: 78.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.03×
• Total profit: $215,744
• Equity at exit: $8,300

Cash invested: $26,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87544

• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,949 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$503
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$120 /mo · $1,440/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$619
• Net cashflow: $1,666

Break-even live

Break-even rent $840

Max offer price $96,000

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,000
• Closing costs: $2,880
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
340 Rim Rd Unit 340-B Los Alamos, NM	2.0	1.0	1460	$3,500	$2.40	10d	1	0.66mi
55 Verde Ridge St Unit B Los Alamos, NM	2.0	1.5	1134	$2,400	$2.12	19d	1	0.91mi
1300 Iris St #203 Los Alamos, NM	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,400	$2.40	19d	1	1.11mi
1926 24th St Los Alamos, NM	2.0	1.0	900	$1,920	$2.13	2d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-11
   price $96,000
3. 2025-11-24
   listed $110,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥88°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,377
• − Property taxes: −$1,440
• − Insurance: −$480
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,831
• − Management: −$2,831
• − Depreciation: −$2,793
• Taxable income: $19,636
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,713
• After-tax cash flow: $15,283/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Alamos Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501650
• Math proficiency: 61% ▲ 14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $104,436
• Composite: 64.09/100
• National rank: #577
• State rank: #2 of 29 in NM

Livability — Los Alamos

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #1377

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Los Alamos, NM
• County: Los Alamos County · 13,598 people
• City population: 13,598
• Metro: Los Alamos, NM
• Population (ZIP): 13,598
• Household income: $138,583
• Rent vs Own: 32.9% rent · 67.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 43.0

Population outlook (Los Alamos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,874 people
• By 2030: 18,157 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 19,073 · +6.7%
• By 2050: 20,010 · +12.0%
• By 2075: 22,686 · +26.9%
• By 2100: 23,523 · +31.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Asian 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 9% Chinese 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Alamos

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+30.2) · D 63.4% · R 33.2% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +23.3pp toward D · 2008: 6.9pp · 2024: 30.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+30.2 2020: D+26.6 2016: D+20.3 2012: D+3.7 2008: D+6.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -377.45%
• Current HPI: 192.7096
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Los Alamos, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-12.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $96,000 Southwest MLS
• 2025-11-24 Listed $110,000 Southwest MLS