Is 121 Brunson Cir in Guyton, GA a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D- with a 5.4% cap rate and $-267/mo modeled cash flow at a $269,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 121 Brunson Cir?

The modeled cap rate is 5.4% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,347/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

D- Composite 38.98

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +9.3/30.0
ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Schools +5.1/10.0
Condition / age +5.0/5.0
1% rule +3.5/10.0
Livability +3.5/5.0
DSCR +2.6/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$269,990

121 Brunson Cir · Guyton, GA 31312

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,470 sqft · Townhouse · 9 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition Garage $154/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the Amara at Brunson Station Townhomes, an active lifestyle near top employers, dining, shopping, and weekend getaways. This move-in ready Amara townhome spreads 1,470 square feet across two levels, with three bedrooms, two full baths, a powder room, and a one-car front-load garage. Sweeper Beige vinyl plank flooring runs through the main level, where white Aristokraft cabinetry and Frost White quartz countertops with a four-inch backsplash give the kitchen a clean, bright feel alongside GE stainless appliances. The living and dining areas extend naturally from the kitchen, keeping the whole main level open and connected, with a powder room tucked close by. Upstairs, three bedrooms and a full bath sit toward one end of the level, while the primary suite occupies the other, with its own en-suite bath finished in Bianca Carrara quartz. On nights when dinner gets pushed late, the kitchen counter handles prep, plating, and cleanup without the space feeling crowded. Standout features: GE stacked washer and dryer included upstairs. GE stainless steel side-by-side refrigerator included. Garage door opener with remote control included. Oxford Blue siding with Colonial White trim and a Web Gray front door. See what sets this home apart. Schedule a private showing and imagine life here.

Key facts

Open floor plan
Quartz countertops
Large center island

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $270k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-267 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (12.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (13.1% below list).
Recommended offer: $235k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 69/100 on livability (#128 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Effingham County (rural): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #16 of 174 in GA (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Marlow Elementary School (math 63% / reading 50%, grade C+, #159 of 1,228 statewide, top 13%, 775 students, 31% FRL); South Effingham Middle School (math 51% / reading 58%, grade B-, #52 of 470 statewide, top 11%, 1,097 students, 32% FRL); South Effingham High School (math 33% / reading 27%, grade F, #135 of 424 statewide, top 32%, 1,888 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 549 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 836 units permitted in Effingham County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Effingham County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,665 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.85% ✗
Cap rate: 5.42%
Cash-on-cash: -3.13%
DSCR: 0.86
GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $274,990
List price: $269,990
Delta: -1.82%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
108 Brunson Cir	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	3mo	$274,990	$187	94
115 Principal Way	1.11mi	3/2.0	1,518 (+3%)	4mo	$330,000	$217	54
138 Hawthorne Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,833 (+25%)	6mo	$275,000	$150	49
143 Twin Oak Cir	1.40mi	3/2.0	1,593 (+8%)	2mo	$447,000	$281	48
255 Caribbean Village Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,594 (+8%)	2mo	$305,000	$191	48
146 Butternut Ct	1.25mi	3/2.0	1,596 (+9%)	3mo	$304,000	$190	46
112 Cotton Bluff Ct	1.22mi	3/2.0	1,599 (+9%)	4mo	$310,000	$194	45
804 Hyacinth Cir	0.98mi	3/2.0	1,613 (+10%)	2mo	$340,000	$211	45
834 Hyacinth Cir	1.08mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-11%)	5mo	$265,000	$204	40
428 Pecan Ln	0.82mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-18%)	2mo	$178,500	$149	36
109 Barbados Cir	0.98mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,768 (+20%)	3mo	$300,000	$170	31
105 Nevis Rd	0.91mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,774 (+21%)	5mo	$289,000	$163	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -23.2%
Equity multiple: 0.20×
Total profit: $-61,395
Equity at exit: $41,002

10-year hold

IRR: -17.7%
Equity multiple: 0.03×
Total profit: $-74,664
Equity at exit: $23,776

Cash invested: $76,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 12 active · 3 under contract
Months of supply: 72.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $254,990 ($173/sqft)
Median days on market: 14 d
This list price: 100% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +7.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 31312

Home prices YoY: -26.6%
Active inventory: 549
Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,347 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,125/yr
Insurance: −$115
Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
HOA: −$154
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
Net cashflow: $-267

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,685

Max offer price $236,355

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-77	-5% $-172	+0% $-267	+5% $-362	+10% $-457
Rent	-10% $-452	-5% $-360	+0% $-267	+5% $-174	+10% $-82
Rate	-1.0pp $-129	-0.5pp $-197	base $-267	+0.5pp $-338	+1.0pp $-411

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $68,748
Closing costs: $8,250
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
268 Caribbean Village Dr Guyton, GA	3.0	2.0	1594	$2,275	$1.43	6d	1	0.67mi
121 Caribbean Village Dr Guyton, GA	3.0	2.0	1511	$2,250	$1.49	6d	1	0.77mi
521 Amsonia Cir Guyton, GA	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,105	$1.37	4d	1	0.94mi
105 Creekside Blvd Guyton, GA	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1698	$1,999	$1.18	0d	17	1.05mi
215 Bellflower Cir Guyton, GA	4.0	2.0	1774	$2,310	$1.30	6d	1	1.19mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Homeowners associationHOA fee $1,844 annually (about $153.67/month)

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage1 garage spaceOff-street parking
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerUnderground utilities
Home design: Townhouse2 storiesProperty is attached1 common wallNew constructionBuilder: Stanley Martin Homes — Model: The Amara
Construction: Vinyl sidingAsphalt roofSlab foundationBuilt as new construction
Exterior features: Community poolPlaygroundParkStreet lightsSidewalksTennis courtsHas a viewAsphalt road

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveOvenRangeRefrigeratorKitchen islandPantry
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom1 main-level bathroom
Heating & cooling: Central air (electric)Electric heatingForced airHeat pump
Interior features: Double vanityKitchen islandPantryAccessible full bath
Laundry & utility: Laundry roomWasherDryerElectric water heater

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $269,990 Active 9 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $269,990 Active 8 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $269,990 Active 7 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $269,990 Active 6 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $269,990 Active 5 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $269,990 Active 3 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $269,990 Active 2 DOM
2026-09-16

days on marketlisting id $269,990 Active 1 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $269,990 Active 89 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $269,990 Active 88 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $269,990 Active 87 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $269,990 Active 86 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $269,990 Active 85 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $269,990 Active 79 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $269,990 Active 78 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $269,990 Active 77 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $269,990 Active 74 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $269,990 Active 73 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $269,990 Active 72 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $269,990 Active 71 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $269,990 Active 70 DOM
2026-08-26

pricedays on market $269,990 Active 69 DOM

Show marketing remark (1307 chars)

Discover the Amara at Brunson Station Townhomes, an active lifestyle near top employers, dining, shopping, and weekend getaways. This move-in ready Amara townhome spreads 1,470 square feet across two levels, with three bedrooms, two full baths, a powder room, and a one-car front-load garage. Sweeper Beige vinyl plank flooring runs through the main level, where white Aristokraft cabinetry and Frost White quartz countertops with a four-inch backsplash give the kitchen a clean, bright feel alongside GE stainless appliances. The living and dining areas extend naturally from the kitchen, keeping the whole main level open and connected, with a powder room tucked close by. Upstairs, three bedrooms and a full bath sit toward one end of the level, while the primary suite occupies the other, with its own en-suite bath finished in Bianca Carrara quartz. On nights when dinner gets pushed late, the kitchen counter handles prep, plating, and cleanup without the space feeling crowded. Standout features: GE stacked washer and dryer included upstairs. GE stainless steel side-by-side refrigerator included. Garage door opener with remote control included. Oxford Blue siding with Colonial White trim and a Web Gray front door. See what sets this home apart. Schedule a private showing and imagine life here.
2026-08-25

days on market $284,990 Active 68 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $284,990 Active 67 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $284,990 Active 66 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $284,990 Active 65 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $284,990 Active 64 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $284,990 Active 63 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $284,990 Active 62 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $284,990 Active 61 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $284,990 Active 60 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $284,990 Active 59 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $284,990 Active 58 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $284,990 Active 57 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $284,990 Active 56 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $284,990 Active 55 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $284,990 Active 54 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $284,990 Active 53 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $284,990 Active 52 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $284,990 Active 51 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $284,990 Active 50 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $284,990 Active 49 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $284,990 Active 48 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $284,990 Active 47 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $284,990 Active 46 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $284,990 Active 43 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $284,990 Active 42 DOM
2026-07-29

days on market $284,990 Active 41 DOM
2026-07-27

days on market $284,990 Active 39 DOM
2026-07-25

days on market $284,990 Active 37 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $28,160
− Mortgage interest: −$15,404
− Property taxes: −$4,125
− Insurance: −$2,172
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,253
− Management: −$2,253
− HOA: −$1,848
− Depreciation: −$8,000
Taxable loss: −$7,894

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,895
After-tax cash flow: $-1,309/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This move-in ready townhome is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great value with potential for minor updates to enhance curb appeal and functionality.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and appearance ↑
Resale New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary South Effingham Elementary School B+ GA #76/1,228 Nat'l #4,272/41,679 Middle South Effingham Middle School B- GA #52/470 Nat'l #2,564/14,009 High South Effingham High School F GA #135/424 Nat'l #10,947/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Effingham County
NCES district ID: 1301980
Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income: $60,503
Composite: 42.56/100
National rank: #3195
State rank: #16 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Guyton

Score: 69/100
State rank: #128
US rank: #9058

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Effingham County · 67,399 people
City population: 25,991
Metro: Savannah, GA
Population (ZIP): 25,991
Household income: $101,750
Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

Population outlook (Effingham County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 67,399 people
By 2030: 72,297 · +7.3%
By 2040: 81,602 · +21.1%
By 2050: 89,494 · +32.8%
By 2075: 105,976 · +57.2%
By 2100: 111,943 · +66.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 11% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Effingham

2024 margin: Solid R (+49.1) · D 25.2% · R 74.3%
2008→2024 swing: +1.6pp toward D · 2008: -50.7pp · 2024: -49.1pp
All cycles: 2024: R+49.1 2020: R+49.5 2016: R+55.6 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+50.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -74.77%
Current HPI: 205.9899
Rent YoY: —
Metro: Savannah, GA
State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
#203 WestRock Atlanta $19.3B #346 Graphic Packaging Holding Atlanta $9.4B
Retail	1	$160B
#24 Home Depot Atlanta $159.5B
Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
#47 United Parcel Service Atlanta $91.1B
Airlines	1	$62B
#70 Delta Air Lines Atlanta $61.6B
Consumer Goods	1	$47B
#97 Coca-Cola Atlanta $47.1B
Utilities	1	$25B
#147 Southern Company Atlanta $24.9B

Price history

-5.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

2026-09-14 Listed $269,990 Hive MLS
2026-08-26 Price Changed $269,990 Zillow
2026-06-18 Listed $284,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…