187 Ballard St #133 · El Cajon, CA 92019

$149,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 666 sqft · Manufactured · 104 Days on market

Built 2025

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This brand new 2025 all-electric manufactured home features 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. Upgraded kitchen packages includes: Hardwood cabinets with shaker style doors, adjustable shelving, and soft-close, hidden hinges. Stainless steel appliance package includes: 21 CF SxS refrigerator with ice/water, self-cleaning gas range, microwave over range, and garbage disposal. Counters are quartz w/ 6" quartz backsplash, and quartz behind the range, with square edges. Bathroom vanity also has quartz counter w/ 6" quartz backsplash, tub/shower and rectangular, undermount sink. Recessed canned lighting throughout, 2' faux wood blinds, and more. New home construction nearly complete!

Key facts

• Quartz counters
• Hardwood cabinets
• Faux wood blinds

Tags

• ALL ELECTRIC MANUFACTURED HOME
• UPGRADED KITCHEN PACKAGES
• HARDWOOD CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERS
• RECESSED CANNED LIGHTING
• FAUX WOOD BLINDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park name: El Cajon Mobile Home Park; Access via paved city streets; Property facing/location details available in listing
• Financial info: Land lease of $1,225 per month (park provided)
• HOA & community: Located in El Cajon Mobile Home Park; Community features include street lighting; Park requires manager approval; Pets allowed with size, breed and number restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned street parking (no driveway)
• Security: Carbon monoxide and smoke detectors
• Utilities: Standard electric service; Public/district water; Public sewer (connected); Telephone in street; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-story mobile home; Model: Canyon Lake; Turnkey condition; Two or more access exits
• Construction: Hardboard siding; Drywall interior walls; Composition roof; Pier jacks foundation; Mobile home dimensions approximately 20' x 38'
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Exterior lighting; Has patio; In-ground fenced community pool; Cement board skirting

Interior

• Kitchen: Stone counters; Self-closing cabinet doors and drawers; Water line to refrigerator; Ice maker; Refrigerator; Electric range; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Water heater unit
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms on one level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Shower-in-tub; Stone counters; Exhaust fan
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Recessed lighting; Open floor plan; Stone counters; Panel doors; Shutters, blinds and screens on windows; Carbon monoxide and smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Community laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $652 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 2.4% in El Cajon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#230 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, cost of living F.
• Grossmont Union High (suburban): math 31% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #173 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,409 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.65%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $76,590
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1174 E Main St #62	0.24mi	2/2.0	691 (+4%)	2mo	$175,000	$253	77
998 E Main St #46	0.54mi	3/1.5 (+1)	676 (+2%)	9mo	$135,000	$200	58
410 S 1st St Spc 145	0.42mi	2/1.5	742 (+11%)	5mo	$85,575	$115	55
1174 E Main St Spc 151	0.24mi	2/1.0	576 (-14%)	14mo	$60,000	$104	54
1425 E Madison Ave #18	0.68mi	2/1.0	748 (+12%)	1mo	$147,000	$197	47
150 S Anza St #41	0.51mi	2/1.0	600 (-10%)	20mo	$35,000	$58	44
1285 E Washington Ave #51	0.62mi	1/1.0 (-1)	624 (-6%)	15mo	$65,000	$104	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $11,022
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $39,019
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92019

• Rents YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,137 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,248/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $652

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,311

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
187 Ballard St El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	542	$2,150	$3.97	2d	2	0.03mi
233 Shady Ln El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,795	$2.76	2d	1	0.24mi
301 Shady Ln El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	720	$2,250	$3.12	2d	8	0.29mi
368 Orlando St El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	692	$1,850	$2.67	2d	1	0.31mi
368 Orlando St #21 El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	692	$1,850	$2.67	10d	1	0.31mi
180 N 1st St El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	830	$2,125	$2.56	2d	3	0.34mi
1041-89 E Lexington Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	838	$2,425	$2.89	2d	8	0.35mi
291 Jamacha Rd El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$2,095	$2.54	2d	4	0.37mi
1037 E Lexington Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	855	$2,225	$2.60	2d	5	0.39mi
422 Shady Ln El Cajon, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	900	$2,304	$2.56	2d	18	0.39mi
421 Shady Ln El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	575	$1,708	$2.97	2d	3	0.40mi
1018 E Lexington Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	670	$1,800	$2.69	2d	1	0.41mi
359 N 1st St Apt 8 El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$1,575	$3.15	2d	1	0.42mi
360 N 1st St El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	725	$1,995	$2.75	16d	1	0.44mi
1382 Ivory Ct Unit 1382B El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	550	$1,625	$2.95	2d	1	0.48mi
541 N 1st St Apt 14 El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	550	$1,550	$2.82	2d	1	0.54mi
588 S Anza St El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	767	$2,100	$2.74	2d	6	0.58mi
233 N Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	843	$2,202	$2.61	2d	10	0.62mi
421 S Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	726	$1,900	$2.62	2d	2	0.63mi
1360 E Madison Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	550	$2,595	$4.72	2d	22	0.63mi
279 S Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	570	$1,950	$3.42	2d	1	0.64mi
1343 Oakdale Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$2,195	$2.74	2d	1	0.65mi
150 S Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	515	$1,800	$3.50	2d	1	0.66mi
390 S Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	750	$1,725	$2.30	2d	1	0.67mi
523 Grape St El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	648	$1,695	$2.62	2d	2	0.69mi
280 N Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$2,195	$2.66	2d	1	0.72mi
917 E Madison Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,195	$2.93	2d	1	0.74mi
545 N Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,000	$2.86	8d	9	0.77mi
545 N Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,028	$2.90	2d	11	0.77mi
444 S Lincoln Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	748	$2,000	$2.67	24d	1	0.84mi
633 E Park Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,675	$2.58	11d	1	0.89mi
633 E Park Ave Unit 12 El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,675	$2.58	17d	1	0.89mi
570 S Lincoln Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	745	$2,475	$3.32	3d	2	0.90mi
1037 Peach Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	560	$1,694	$3.03	2d	4	0.93mi
1019 Peach Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	700	$2,161	$3.09	2d	8	0.95mi
195 Ballantyne St Unit 8 El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$1,650	$3.30	8d	1	0.97mi
181 Ballantyne St Unit 15 El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	750	$2,500	$3.33	8d	1	0.98mi
181 Ballantyne St Apt 12 El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	583	$2,067	$3.55	5d	1	0.98mi
200 Taft Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	700	$2,175	$3.11	2d	6	0.98mi
798 McClure St Apt 7 El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	570	$1,595	$2.80	2d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,900 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-03-06
    listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,643
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,248
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,051
• − Management: −$2,051
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $5,785
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,388
• After-tax cash flow: $6,439/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grossmont Union High
• NCES district ID: 0616230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,801
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3810
• State rank: #173 of 517 in CA

Livability — El Cajon

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #230
• US rank: #7531

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment C Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Cajon, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 173,694
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 45,351
• Household income: $101,973
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1897.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Arab 6% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 11% Arabic 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -553.81%
• Current HPI: 349.3085
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.61%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $149,900 CRMLS