29207 Dandelion Sky Dr · Houston, TX 77484

$244,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,582 sqft · SingleFamily · 128 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,497 sqft lot $155/sqft · at area comps Est $251k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Appreciation +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Bridgeport brings everything together in one comfortable, convenient single-story floor plan. Centered around an airy, open kitchen that overlooks a dining room and a great room, the main living area is spacious and inviting. The lavish primary suite boasts a private bath with a walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a walk-in closet. Adjacent, you'll find three additional bedrooms, offering ample space for rest and relaxation.

Key facts

• 5,497 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-80 ($-960/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Waller J H (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 899 students, 69% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1196 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,435 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.40%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $251,290
• List price: $244,900
• Delta: -2.54%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29123 Dandelion Sky Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,582 (0%)	1mo	$273,900	$173	97
29227 Farmhouse Estates Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,565 (-1%)	0mo	$250,040	$160	95
29210 Farmhouse Estates Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,565 (-1%)	1mo	$260,040	$166	94
29218 Farmhouse Estates Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,565 (-1%)	1mo	$241,040	$154	93
29023 Farmhouse Estates Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,688 (+7%)	0mo	$269,240	$160	79
29207 Farmhouse Estates Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,449 (-8%)	2mo	$249,940	$172	77
29215 Farmhouse Estates Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,428 (-10%)	0mo	$233,940	$164	76
29203 Dandelion Sky Dr	0.01mi	4/2.5	1,785 (+13%)	1mo	$279,900	$157	76
29219 Farmhouse Estates Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,414 (-11%)	1mo	$252,540	$179	73
29131 Farmhouse Estates Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,414 (-11%)	2mo	$261,240	$185	73
17407 Sage Run Dr	0.08mi	4/2.5	1,785 (+13%)	1mo	$276,900	$155	72
17411 Sage Run Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,388 (-12%)	2mo	$246,900	$178	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-50,885
• Equity at exit: $36,515

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-74,451
• Equity at exit: $21,174

Cash invested: $68,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77484

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 1196
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,104 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,284
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,674/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,206

Max offer price $233,322

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $89	-5% $5	+0% $-80	+5% $-165	+10% $-249
Rent	-10% $-246	-5% $-163	+0% $-80	+5% $3	+10% $86
Rate	-1.0pp $43	-0.5pp $-18	base $-80	+0.5pp $-143	+1.0pp $-208

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,225
• Closing costs: $7,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16722 Old Wagon Way Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1880	$1,790	$0.95	45d	1	0.95mi
17222 King Eider Rd Waller, TX	4.0	2.5	2178	$1,935	$0.89	7d	1	1.03mi
17119 King Eider Rd Waller, TX	4.0	2.5	1994	$1,900	$0.95	23d	1	1.09mi
16315 Mesquite Field Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	45d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $244,900 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,900 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,900 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,900 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,900 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $244,900 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $264,900 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $264,900 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $264,900 Active 114 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $264,900 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $264,900 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $264,900 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $264,900 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $264,900 Active 107 DOM
15. 2026-04-02
    price $264,900 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    The Bridgeport brings everything together in one comfortable, convenient single-story floor plan. Centered around an airy, open kitchen that overlooks a dining room and a great room, the main living area is spacious and inviting. The lavish primary suite boasts a private bath with a walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a walk-in closet. Adjacent, you’ll find three additional bedrooms, offering ample space for rest and relaxation.

16. 2026-04-02
    price $264,900 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    The Bridgeport brings everything together in one comfortable, convenient single-story floor plan. Centered around an airy, open kitchen that overlooks a dining room and a great room, the main living area is spacious and inviting. The lavish primary suite boasts a private bath with a walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a walk-in closet. Adjacent, you’ll find three additional bedrooms, offering ample space for rest and relaxation.

17. 2026-02-13
    listed $271,900 Active 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    The Bridgeport brings everything together in one comfortable, convenient single-story floor plan. Centered around an airy, open kitchen that overlooks a dining room and a great room, the main living area is spacious and inviting. The lavish primary suite boasts a private bath with a walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a walk-in closet. Adjacent, you’ll find three additional bedrooms, offering ample space for rest and relaxation.

18. 2026-02-07
    listed $271,900 Active 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    The Bridgeport brings everything together in one comfortable, convenient single-story floor plan. Centered around an airy, open kitchen that overlooks a dining room and a great room, the main living area is spacious and inviting. The lavish primary suite boasts a private bath with a walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a walk-in closet. Adjacent, you'll find three additional bedrooms, offering ample space for rest and relaxation.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,252
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,718
• − Property taxes: −$3,674
• − Insurance: −$1,224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,020
• − Management: −$2,020
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$7,124
• Taxable loss: −$5,129
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,231
• After-tax cash flow: $271/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with a good layout and curb appeal. It is move-in ready and would benefit from some exterior painting and modernizing the blinds to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can add value.
• Rental Replacing blinds with more modern or energy-efficient ones — Improves aesthetics and energy efficiency.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can add value. ↑
• Rental Replacing blinds with more modern or energy-efficient ones — Improves aesthetics and energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,348
• Household income: $81,250
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 270.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
• Current HPI: 397.85
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $264,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $264,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $271,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-07 Listed $271,900 Zillow