1715 Old Bay Springs Rd · Laurel, MS 39440

$139,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,650 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1950 0.50 ac lot $84/sqft · 34% above area Est $104k · 34% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS HOUSE IS WELL BUILT AND SOUND. NEEDS UPDATES. HARDWAOOD UNDER CARPET. AND LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION. THERE WILL BE AN ESTATE SALE. BEAUTIFUL WOODED LOT PRIVATE WITH NEAR PROXIMITY TO TOWN.

Key facts

• Wooded lot
• Private
• 0.5 acre lot

Tags

• HARDWOOD UNDER CARPET
• WOODED LOT
• PRIVATE
• NEAR PROXIMITY TO TOWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $435 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#92 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, commute F.
• Laurel School District (town): math 16% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #101 of 130 in MS (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 132 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 23 units permitted in Jones County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jones County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 96% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,659 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.41%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $103,686
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: 34.06%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
732 W 13th St	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,626 (-2%)	23mo	$106,000	$65	47
1136 N 13th Ave	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,427 (-14%)	21mo	$45,000	$32	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $5,193
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $40,279
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39440

• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,761 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,034/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $435

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,211

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $513	-5% $474	+0% $435	+5% $395	+10% $356
Rent	-10% $296	-5% $365	+0% $435	+5% $504	+10% $574
Rate	-1.0pp $505	-0.5pp $470	base $435	+0.5pp $399	+1.0pp $362

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3017 Old Amy Rd Laurel, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,761	$1.72	15d	3	1.35mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 43 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 42 DOM
17. 2026-04-19
    listed $139,000 Active 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    THIS HOUSE IS WELL BUILT AND SOUND. NEEDS UPDATES. HARDWAOOD UNDER CARPET. AND LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION. THERE WILL BE AN ESTATE SALE. BEAUTIFUL WOODED LOT PRIVATE WITH NEAR PROXIMITY TO TOWN.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,034 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,034 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 96% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,132
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,034
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,691
• − Management: −$1,691
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $3,192
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$766
• After-tax cash flow: $4,452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Laurel School District
• NCES district ID: 2802460
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $28,415
• Composite: 13.36/100
• National rank: #9535
• State rank: #101 of 130 in MS

Livability — Laurel

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #92
• US rank: #11413

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Laurel, MS
• City population: 20,111
• Population (ZIP): 20,111

Population outlook (Jones County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,800 people
• By 2030: 68,773 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 68,087 · -1.0%
• By 2050: 66,241 · -3.7%
• By 2075: 58,600 · -14.8%
• By 2100: 45,744 · -33.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 63% White 30% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Jones

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.8) · D 26.2% · R 73.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.2pp toward R · 2008: -38.6pp · 2024: -46.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.8 2020: R+42.2 2016: R+43.6 2012: R+38.2 2008: R+38.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.63%
• Current HPI: 126.2541
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Listed $139,000 LBOR

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,034 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.