Clayton Oakstead 48 (24x48) Plan · Ghent, KY 41045

$89,585

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,136 sqft · Manufactured · 30 Days on market

Poor condition $450/mo HOA · 30% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks

The Clayton Clear Choice Oakstead 48 offers approximately 1,136 square feet of living space with a bright open layout designed for comfort, connection, and flexibility. This multi-section home creates a more spacious residential feel while still maintaining an inviting and practical everyday layout. The large living room and open kitchen create a welcoming gathering space with room to spread out and entertain. The split-bedroom design provides additional privacy for the primary suite, while features like stainless steel appliances, recessed LED lighting, durable cabinetry, and energy-efficient design including 2x6 exterior wall construction help create a modern and comfortable home environm

Key facts

• Open layout
• Large living room
• Split-bedroom design

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• OPEN KITCHEN
• SPLIT-BEDROOM DESIGN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• RECESSED LED LIGHTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing is new construction plan; List price $92,548 (as of last update)
• HOA & community: Association fee: $450

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric service; Heat pump; Central air
• Home design: Clayton Oakstead 48 (24x48) model/plan; Single-story (plan)
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open interior layout (model/plan home)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $116 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#384 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Carroll County (town): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #163 of 165 in KY (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($620 loan paydown + $519 appreciation (0.6% local appreciation)).
• Carroll County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,241 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.54%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.58% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $7,528
• Equity at exit: $28,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $31,887
• Equity at exit: $36,596

Cash invested: $25,084 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41045

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$470
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,344/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$450
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,353

Max offer price $89,585

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $178	-5% $147	+0% $116	+5% $85	+10% $54
Rent	-10% $-3	-5% $57	+0% $116	+5% $175	+10% $234
Rate	-1.0pp $161	-0.5pp $139	base $116	+0.5pp $93	+1.0pp $69

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,396
• Closing costs: $2,688
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
516 Pearl St Apt 2 Vevay, IN	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	45d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $450 · $5,400/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,585 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,585 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,585 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,585 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,585 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,585 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $89,585 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $92,548 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $92,548 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $92,548 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $92,548 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $92,548 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $92,548 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $92,548 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $92,548 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $92,548 Active 9 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $92,548 Active 8 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,018
• − Property taxes: −$1,344
• − Insurance: −$448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − HOA: −$5,400
• − Depreciation: −$2,606
• Taxable income: $304
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$73
• After-tax cash flow: $1,318/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive repairs and updates to its roof, exterior, flooring, interior walls, and systems. Significant investment is needed to bring it up to a livable condition.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — No visible roof in the satellite image.
• Major exterior — No visible exterior in the satellite image.
• Major flooring — No visible flooring in the satellite image.
• Major interior walls/paint — No visible interior walls or paint in the satellite image.
• Major systems — No visible systems in the satellite image.

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and functionality.
• Both exterior siding and paint — A fresh exterior would enhance curb appeal and increase the home's value.
• Both flooring replacement — New flooring would improve the home's condition and make it more attractive to potential buyers or renters.
• Both interior wall and paint work — Fresh paint and possibly new walls would make the interior more appealing and functional.
• Both system upgrades — Upgrading systems like HVAC and electrical would improve the home's functionality and energy efficiency, enhancing its value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · No visible roof in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior · No visible exterior in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · No visible flooring in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · No visible interior walls or paint in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
systems · No visible systems in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Both exterior siding and paint — A fresh exterior would enhance curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both flooring replacement — New flooring would improve the home's condition and make it more attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both interior wall and paint work — Fresh paint and possibly new walls would make the interior more appealing and functional. ↑
• Both system upgrades — Upgrading systems like HVAC and electrical would improve the home's functionality and energy efficiency, enhancing its value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carroll County
• NCES district ID: 2100990
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $41,646
• Composite: 15.0/100
• National rank: #9361
• State rank: #163 of 165 in KY

Livability — Ghent

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #384
• US rank: #18633

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ghent, KY
• Population (ZIP): 1,222

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,359 people
• By 2030: 10,058 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 9,465 · -8.6%
• By 2050: 8,788 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 7,079 · -31.7%
• By 2100: 5,066 · -51.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 7% Romanian 5% English 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 23.9% · R 74.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+44.4 2016: R+38.5 2012: R+10.1 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.58%
• Current HPI: 215.636
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B