Canal Square Oakhill Plan · New Haven, IN 46774

$243,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,467 sqft · Townhouse · 397 Days on market

Good condition $154/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS IS A SAMPLE PLAN - THIS IS NOT A HOME FOR SALE. Lancia's Oakhill is a Modern Single Family Multi-Level Villa with a 1-Car Garage. Open plan great room with patio off of nook. Owner suite has a walk-in closet. 2-story foyer. Carefree Low Maintenance Homeownership.

Key facts

• 2-story foyer
• Walk-in closet
• Open plan great room

Tags

• OPEN PLAN GREAT ROOM
• PATIO OFF OF NOOK
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• 2-STORY FOYER

🏗️ New construction. The $243,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $260,503.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $244k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-425 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (18.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#149 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• East Allen County Schools (suburban): math 36% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #122 of 301 in IN (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Haven Intermediate School (math 28% / reading 29%, grade F, #727 of 994 statewide, top 73%, 589 students, 64% FRL); New Haven Jr/Sr High School (math 21% / reading 50%, grade F, #263 of 369 statewide, top 72%, 1,494 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 43% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 269 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,861 units permitted in Allen County in 2024 (576 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allen County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 397 days — a 12% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $193,522 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 397 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.00%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,503
• List price: $243,900
• Delta: -6.37%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3583 Canal Square Dr	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,467 (0%)	10mo	$200,000	$136	92
10410 Chesterhills Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,493 (+2%)	4mo	$273,000	$183	71
10209 Buckshire Ct	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+0%)	13mo	$278,900	$189	71
10365 Chesterhills Ct	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,458 (-1%)	12mo	$243,000	$167	68
10253 Chesterhills Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,429 (-3%)	9mo	$255,000	$178	68
10396 Buckshire Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,462 (-0%)	18mo	$260,000	$178	65
10421 Buckshire Ct	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+3%)	17mo	$299,900	$198	62
10650 Bookcliff Cv	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,345 (-8%)	6mo	$209,999	$156	57
3720 Thyme Ct	0.56mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,349 (-8%)	13mo	$235,000	$174	44
3727 Thyme Ct	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,253 (-15%)	10mo	$229,900	$183	36
3588 Westport Dr	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,289 (-12%)	5mo	$232,500	$180	35
3530 Thyme Ct	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,285 (-12%)	16mo	$229,500	$179	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-69,186
• Equity at exit: $38,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-94,635
• Equity at exit: $22,524

Cash invested: $72,941 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 2.4 mo (42%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $265,000 ($179/sqft)
• Median days on market: 54 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -0.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 46774

• Active inventory: 269
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,935 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,366
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$326 /mo · $3,908/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$154
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $-425

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,474

Max offer price $198,939

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-245	-5% $-335	+0% $-425	+5% $-515	+10% $-605
Rent	-10% $-578	-5% $-502	+0% $-425	+5% $-349	+10% $-273
Rate	-1.0pp $-294	-0.5pp $-359	base $-425	+0.5pp $-493	+1.0pp $-562

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,126
• Closing costs: $7,815
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3565 Canal Square Dr New Haven, IN	3.0	2.5	1832	$1,895	$1.03	1d	1	0.02mi
3591 Canal Square Dr New Haven, IN	3.0	1.5	1467	$1,695	$1.16	139d	1	0.02mi
3559 Canal Square Dr New Haven, IN	3.0	2.5	1832	$1,990	$1.09	1d	1	0.02mi
3561 Canal Square Dr New Haven, IN	3.0	2.5	1832	$1,990	$1.09	1d	1	0.02mi
3599 Canal Square Dr New Haven, IN	3.0	2.5	1832	$2,295	$1.25	117d	1	0.12mi
3589 Canal Square Dr New Haven, IN	3.0	2.5	1437	$1,795	$1.25	1d	1	0.13mi
10390 Silver Rock Chase New Haven, IN	4.0	2.5	1767	$2,250	$1.27	139d	1	0.20mi
1135 Summit St New Haven, IN	2.0	1.0	1061	$1,025	$0.97	117d	1	1.40mi
522 Sara Dr New Haven, IN	3.0	1.0	1248	$1,399	$1.12	6d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $243,900 Active 397 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $243,900 Active 396 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $243,900 Active 395 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $243,900 Active 394 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $243,900 Active 393 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $243,900 Active 391 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $243,900 Active 390 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $243,900 Active 389 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $243,900 Active 388 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $243,900 Active 387 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $243,900 Active 386 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $243,900 Active 385 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $243,900 Active 384 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $243,900 Active 378 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $243,900 Active 377 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $243,900 Active 376 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $243,900 Active 373 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $243,900 Active 372 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $243,900 Active 371 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $243,900 Active 370 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $243,900 Active 369 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $243,900 Active 368 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $243,900 Active 367 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $243,900 Active 366 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $243,900 Active 365 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $243,900 Active 364 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $243,900 Active 363 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $243,900 Active 362 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $243,900 Active 361 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $243,900 Active 360 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $243,900 Active 359 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $243,900 Active 358 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $243,900 Active 357 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $243,900 Active 356 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $243,900 Active 355 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $243,900 Active 354 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $243,900 Active 353 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $243,900 Active 352 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $243,900 Active 351 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $243,900 Active 350 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $243,900 Active 349 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $243,900 Active 348 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $243,900 Active 347 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $243,900 Active 346 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $243,900 Active 345 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $243,900 Active 342 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $243,900 Active 341 DOM
48. 2026-07-29
    days on market $243,900 Active 340 DOM
49. 2026-07-27
    days on market $243,900 Active 338 DOM
50. 2026-07-25
    days on market $243,900 Active 336 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,223
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,592
• − Property taxes: −$3,908
• − Insurance: −$1,303
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,858
• − Management: −$1,858
• − HOA: −$1,848
• − Depreciation: −$7,578
• Taxable loss: −$9,722
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,333
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,772/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern townhouse is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bedrooms — Carpet can be replaced with hardwood or tile to increase value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can enhance curb appeal and attract more buyers and renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary New Haven Primary School High New Haven Jr/sr High School F IN #263/369 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Allen County Schools
• NCES district ID: 1802850
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,524
• Composite: 35.75/100
• National rank: #4849
• State rank: #122 of 301 in IN

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — New Haven

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #7499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Haven, IN
• County: Allen · 394,020 people
• Metro: Fort Wayne, IN
• Population (ZIP): 17,066
• Household income: $70,758
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Allen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 394,020 people
• By 2030: 405,128 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 423,476 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 435,137 · +10.4%
• By 2075: 450,293 · +14.3%
• By 2100: 424,101 · +7.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · German/W. Germanic 6% Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Allen

• 2024 margin: R (+12.5) · D 42.9% · R 55.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.1pp toward R · 2008: -4.3pp · 2024: -12.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.5 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+19.6 2012: R+16.8 2008: R+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -185.27%
• Current HPI: 241.5333
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+5.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $239,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $236,200 Zillow
• 2025-08-23 Listed $227,900 Zillow