16101 N EL Mirage Rd #358 · El Mirage, AZ 85335

$66,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 100 Days on market

Built 2001 Average condition $55/sqft · 27% below area Est $91k · 27% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this lovely home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms! What are you waiting for? Make it yours before it's gone! Any and all furniture can be included in sale price.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 2001

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $66k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $983 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $66k).
• Recommended offer: $60k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.2% vs local median 4.5% in El Mirage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#112 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 132 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $456 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($60k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $60,060 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.83%
• DSCR: 3.84
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $90,780
• List price: $66,000
• Delta: -27.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16101 N EL Mirage Rd #424	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,200 (0%)	19mo	$100,000	$83	83
16101 N EL Mirage Rd #371	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+12%)	0mo	$64,000	$48	76
16101 N EL Mirage Rd #369	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,326 (+10%)	8mo	$85,000	$64	76
16101 N EL Mirage Rd #354	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,326 (+10%)	11mo	$90,000	$68	71
16101 N EL Mirage Rd #378	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,377 (+15%)	4mo	$112,000	$81	69
16101 N EL Mirage Rd #445	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,351 (+13%)	22mo	$92,000	$68	59
15632 N Greasewood St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+13%)	20mo	$315,000	$233	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 59.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $46,740
• Equity at exit: $9,841

10-year hold

• IRR: 63.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.48×
• Total profit: $101,300
• Equity at exit: $5,706

Cash invested: $18,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85335

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,822 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$346
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$82 /mo · $990/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $983

Break-even live

Break-even rent $577

Max offer price $66,000

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,500
• Closing costs: $1,980
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15620 N El Mirage Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1310	$1,599	$1.22	24d	2	0.27mi
15427 N Jerry St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	920	$1,450	$1.58	5d	1	0.37mi
16520 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1267	$1,850	$1.46	1d	17	0.50mi
16629 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1052	$1,462	$1.39	1d	3	0.51mi
12741 W Tasha Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,275	$1.70	24d	1	0.68mi
12817 W Cottonwood St Unit 1 Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.0	725	$1,300	$1.79	5d	1	0.77mi
14809 N El Frio Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1459	$2,199	$1.51	21d	1	0.78mi
12438 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,595	$1.22	23d	1	0.82mi
11759 W Banff Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	1495	$2,000	$1.34	43d	1	0.92mi
12945 W Greenway Rd El Mirage, AZ	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,300	$1.23	23d	4	0.99mi
12574 W Lisbon Ln El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1058	$1,700	$1.61	4d	1	1.03mi
11417 W Amber Trl Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,750	$1.55	5d	1	1.09mi
15426 N Cactus Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	1.0	1376	$1,634	$1.19	43d	1	1.09mi
11345 W Loma Blanca Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,930	$1.41	43d	1	1.11mi
11755 W Thompson Ranch Rd El Mirage, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,771	$2.96	1d	1	1.23mi
14005 N Palm St Unit 4 El Mirage, AZ	2.0	1.0	830	$1,200	$1.45	43d	1	1.24mi
13913 N Palm St Unit 12 El Mirage, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	1d	1	1.27mi
13913 N Palm St Unit 14 El Mirage, AZ	2.0	1.0	830	$1,200	$1.45	43d	1	1.27mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 2 Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,732	$1.61	24d	1	1.38mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 3 Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,822	$1.54	24d	1	1.38mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,813	$1.68	12d	1	1.44mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,981	$1.67	1d	1	1.44mi
13342 W Canyon Creek Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,750	$1.23	24d	1	1.45mi
12022 W Ash St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,800	$1.73	24d	1	1.45mi
14417 N Gil Balcome Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,900	$1.31	5d	1	1.49mi
12430 W Willow Ave El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$5,900	$4.99	4d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $66,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $66,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $66,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $66,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $66,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $66,000 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $66,000 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $66,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $66,000 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $66,000 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $66,000 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    price $66,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,000 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,000 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-04-04
    price $79,000 177-char remark

    Show marketing remark (177 chars)

    Welcome to this lovely home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms! What are you waiting for? Make it yours before it's gone! Any and all furniture can be included in sale price.

16. 2026-03-21
    price $89,000 177-char remark

    Show marketing remark (177 chars)

    Welcome to this lovely home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms! What are you waiting for? Make it yours before it's gone! Any and all furniture can be included in sale price.

17. 2026-03-10
    listed $90,000 Active 177-char remark

    Show marketing remark (177 chars)

    Welcome to this lovely home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms! What are you waiting for? Make it yours before it's gone! Any and all furniture can be included in sale price.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,860
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,697
• − Property taxes: −$990
• − Insurance: −$330
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,749
• − Management: −$1,749
• − Depreciation: −$1,920
• Taxable income: $11,425
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,742
• After-tax cash flow: $9,054/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate repairs and updates to improve its condition and value. Fresh paint, new flooring, and modernizing the kitchen and bathrooms can significantly enhance its appeal.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Exterior siding — Some discoloration and wear
• Minor Carpeted flooring — Worn and needs replacement
• Minor Paint — Chipped and worn in some areas

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Flooring — New flooring can improve comfort and value
• Both Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to modern appliances can increase appeal and value
• Both Bathroom fixtures — Modernizing bathrooms can improve functionality and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Some discoloration and wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Carpeted flooring · Worn and needs replacement	Minor	$500–3,000
Paint · Chipped and worn in some areas	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Flooring — New flooring can improve comfort and value ↑
• Both Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to modern appliances can increase appeal and value ↑
• Both Bathroom fixtures — Modernizing bathrooms can improve functionality and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — El Mirage

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #15164

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Mirage, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 36,088
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 36,088
• Household income: $78,050
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 669.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 35% Two or more races 28% Black 6% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.81%
• Current HPI: 342.6503
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.08%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-12.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $79,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $89,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $90,000 ARMLS