121 Horse Ranch Rd · Prospect, OR 97536

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 230 Days on market

Built 1977 0.65 ac lot $108/sqft · 58% below area ↓ 37% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rare opportunity on a 2/3-acre lot in Evergreen Meadows! One of only two homes on the very short Horse Ranch Road, this property offers privacy, peace, and abundant wildlife. Just a short distance to HUNDREDS of acres of public land, enjoy endless hiking, trail riding, hunting, and year-round outdoor recreation just steps from your door. The 1977 manufactured home features 2-bedrooms, 1-Bath, and 924-sq. ft. , ready for renovations—perfect for a handy buyer, investor, or flipper. Build your dream home or remodel the existing home on this highly desirable lot just above Lost Creek Lake. Community water system and good septic are in place. Owner carry terms available with a large down payment, though cash is preferred. Do not enter the property or home without an agent present. A rare, private retreat with huge potential for outdoor enthusiasts or anyone searching to create their ideal mountain getaway!

Key facts

• 0.65 acre lot
• Built 1977
• Listed 230 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#346 in OR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Prospect SD 59 (rural): math 20% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #168 of 183 in OR (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $687 of equity ($691 loan paydown + $-4 appreciation (-0.0% local appreciation)).
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 230 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 230 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.60%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,000
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -58.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
115 Manzanita Dr	0.15mi	2/1.0	960 (+4%)	9mo	$211,500	$220	79

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $6,873
• Equity at exit: $28,985

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $31,751
• Equity at exit: $34,824

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97536

• Home prices YoY: -0.0%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,069 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $874

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 230 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 229 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 228 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 227 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 225 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,900 Active 224 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 221 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 220 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 219 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 218 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,900 Active 215 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 214 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 213 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 212 DOM
15. 2026-04-03
    price $99,900 920-char remark

    Show marketing remark (920 chars)

    Rare opportunity on a 2/3-acre lot in Evergreen Meadows! One of only two homes on the very short Horse Ranch Road, this property offers privacy, peace, and abundant wildlife. Just a short distance to HUNDREDS of acres of public land, enjoy endless hiking, trail riding, hunting, and year-round outdoor recreation just steps from your door. The 1977 manufactured home features 2-bedrooms, 1-Bath, and 924-sq. ft. , ready for renovations—perfect for a handy buyer, investor, or flipper. Build your dream home or remodel the existing home on this highly desirable lot just above Lost Creek Lake. Community water system and good septic are in place. Owner carry terms available with a large down payment, though cash is preferred. Do not enter the property or home without an agent present. A rare, private retreat with huge potential for outdoor enthusiasts or anyone searching to create their ideal mountain getaway!

16. 2025-10-31
    listed $125,000 Active 920-char remark

    Show marketing remark (920 chars)

    Rare opportunity on a 2/3-acre lot in Evergreen Meadows! One of only two homes on the very short Horse Ranch Road, this property offers privacy, peace, and abundant wildlife. Just a short distance to HUNDREDS of acres of public land, enjoy endless hiking, trail riding, hunting, and year-round outdoor recreation just steps from your door. The 1977 manufactured home features 2-bedrooms, 1-Bath, and 924-sq. ft. , ready for renovations—perfect for a handy buyer, investor, or flipper. Build your dream home or remodel the existing home on this highly desirable lot just above Lost Creek Lake. Community water system and good septic are in place. Owner carry terms available with a large down payment, though cash is preferred. Do not enter the property or home without an agent present. A rare, private retreat with huge potential for outdoor enthusiasts or anyone searching to create their ideal mountain getaway!

17. 2020-05-05
    historical
18. 2020-04-30
    historical
19. 2007-02-12
    listed $158,900
20. 2007-02-12
    listed $158,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥94°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,824
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,026
• − Management: −$1,026
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $272
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$65
• After-tax cash flow: $1,781/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prospect SD 59
• NCES district ID: 4110200
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $39,573
• Composite: 26.04/100
• National rank: #12739
• State rank: #168 of 183 in OR

Livability — Prospect

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #25082

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,230

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▬ -0.00%
• Current HPI: 246.1249
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-37.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $99,900 MLSCO
• 2025-10-31 Listed $125,000 MLSCO
• 2020-05-05 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2020-04-30 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2007-02-12 Listed $158,900 MLSCO
• 2007-02-12 Listed $158,900 MLSCO

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $138 · +71.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.