The Waring III Plan · Weston Lakes, TX 77441

$348,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,738 sqft · SingleFamily · 375 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Waring III plan is a two-story home featuring five bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms, a formal dining room, and a second-story loft that can be used as a large game/media room. A covered porch greets you as you enter the Waring III. The dining room can be optioned as a study, and the kitchen, breakfast, and family room lend themselves to a ton of natural light, creating a sizeable open-concept gathering area. The primary suite is on the first floor at the back of the home for maximum privacy and includes an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. The second story offers three bedrooms and a huge loft. Walk-in closets in almost every bedroom provide storage space, making this the perfect two-story home for any family.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Formal dining room
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• SECOND STORY LOFT
• OPEN-CONCEPT GATHERING AREA
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• GENEROUS WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $348,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $379,715.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $349k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $28 ($335/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $336k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $307k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 1.5% in Weston Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,122 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1213 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 375 days — a 12% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $307,111 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 375 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.31%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $379,715
• List price: $348,990
• Delta: -8.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32452 Forktail Lake Dr	0.36mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,718 (-1%)	3mo	$545,990	$201	73
32350 Slender Spreadwing Dr	0.37mi	5/3.5	2,841 (+4%)	1mo	$412,945	$145	72
8235 Red Shiner Way	0.21mi	5/4.0	2,949 (+8%)	2mo	$414,990	$141	70
32402 Fly Fish Way	0.13mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,446 (-11%)	4mo	$388,490	$159	64
32438 Violet Dancer Ct	0.45mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,637 (-4%)	3mo	$550,940	$209	61
32441 Forktail Lake Dr	0.36mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,988 (+9%)	2mo	$549,990	$184	57
8023 River Bluet Pl	0.39mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,048 (+11%)	1mo	$870,000	$285	55
8006 River Bluet Pl	0.43mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,018 (+10%)	3mo	$560,990	$186	54
7814 River Bluet Pl	0.51mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,031 (+11%)	2mo	$579,990	$191	50
7914 Blue Dasher Park Pl	0.46mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,016 (+10%)	3mo	$629,990	$209	48
7914 River Bluet Pl	0.44mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,116 (+14%)	3mo	$585,990	$188	46
33026 School Hill Rd	0.58mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,399 (-12%)	0mo	$339,990	$142	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-69,541
• Equity at exit: $56,617

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-96,081
• Equity at exit: $32,831

Cash invested: $106,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77441

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1213
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,357 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,991
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$475 /mo · $5,696/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$705
• Net cashflow: $28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,322

Max offer price $379,715

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,929
• Closing costs: $11,391
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8106 Royal Palm Ct Fulshear, TX	5.0	4.0	2946	$2,950	$1.00	43d	1	1.33mi
8114 Royal Palm Ct Fulshear, TX	5.0	4.0	2960	$3,295	$1.11	43d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $348,990 Active 375 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $348,990 Active 374 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $348,990 Active 373 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $348,990 Active 372 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $348,990 Active 370 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $348,990 Active 366 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $348,990 Active 365 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $348,990 Active 364 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $348,990 Active 361 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $348,990 Active 360 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $348,990 Active 359 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $348,990 Active 358 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $348,990 Active 357 DOM
14. 2026-01-16
    price $348,990 738-char remark

    Show marketing remark (738 chars)

    The Waring III plan is a two-story home featuring five bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms, a formal dining room, and a second-story loft that can be used as a large game/media room. A covered porch greets you as you enter the Waring III. The dining room can be optioned as a study, and the kitchen, breakfast, and family room lend themselves to a ton of natural light, creating a sizeable open-concept gathering area. The primary suite is on the first floor at the back of the home for maximum privacy and includes an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. The second story offers three bedrooms and a huge loft. Walk-in closets in almost every bedroom provide storage space, making this the perfect two-story home for any family.

15. 2025-10-21
    status Active 738-char remark

    Show marketing remark (738 chars)

    The Waring III plan is a two-story home featuring five bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms, a formal dining room, and a second-story loft that can be used as a large game/media room. A covered porch greets you as you enter the Waring III. The dining room can be optioned as a study, and the kitchen, breakfast, and family room lend themselves to a ton of natural light, creating a sizeable open-concept gathering area. The primary suite is on the first floor at the back of the home for maximum privacy and includes an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. The second story offers three bedrooms and a huge loft. Walk-in closets in almost every bedroom provide storage space, making this the perfect two-story home for any family.

16. 2025-10-18
    historical 738-char remark

    Show marketing remark (738 chars)

    The Waring III plan is a two-story home featuring five bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms, a formal dining room, and a second-story loft that can be used as a large game/media room. A covered porch greets you as you enter the Waring III. The dining room can be optioned as a study, and the kitchen, breakfast, and family room lend themselves to a ton of natural light, creating a sizeable open-concept gathering area. The primary suite is on the first floor at the back of the home for maximum privacy and includes an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. The second story offers three bedrooms and a huge loft. Walk-in closets in almost every bedroom provide storage space, making this the perfect two-story home for any family.

17. 2025-10-17
    status Active 738-char remark

    Show marketing remark (738 chars)

    The Waring III plan is a two-story home featuring five bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms, a formal dining room, and a second-story loft that can be used as a large game/media room. A covered porch greets you as you enter the Waring III. The dining room can be optioned as a study, and the kitchen, breakfast, and family room lend themselves to a ton of natural light, creating a sizeable open-concept gathering area. The primary suite is on the first floor at the back of the home for maximum privacy and includes an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. The second story offers three bedrooms and a huge loft. Walk-in closets in almost every bedroom provide storage space, making this the perfect two-story home for any family.

18. 2025-10-17
    historical 738-char remark

    Show marketing remark (738 chars)

    The Waring III plan is a two-story home featuring five bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms, a formal dining room, and a second-story loft that can be used as a large game/media room. A covered porch greets you as you enter the Waring III. The dining room can be optioned as a study, and the kitchen, breakfast, and family room lend themselves to a ton of natural light, creating a sizeable open-concept gathering area. The primary suite is on the first floor at the back of the home for maximum privacy and includes an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. The second story offers three bedrooms and a huge loft. Walk-in closets in almost every bedroom provide storage space, making this the perfect two-story home for any family.

19. 2025-08-01
    price $346,990 738-char remark

    Show marketing remark (738 chars)

    The Waring III plan is a two-story home featuring five bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms, a formal dining room, and a second-story loft that can be used as a large game/media room. A covered porch greets you as you enter the Waring III. The dining room can be optioned as a study, and the kitchen, breakfast, and family room lend themselves to a ton of natural light, creating a sizeable open-concept gathering area. The primary suite is on the first floor at the back of the home for maximum privacy and includes an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. The second story offers three bedrooms and a huge loft. Walk-in closets in almost every bedroom provide storage space, making this the perfect two-story home for any family.

20. 2025-06-04
    listed $344,990 Active 738-char remark

    Show marketing remark (738 chars)

    The Waring III plan is a two-story home featuring five bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms, a formal dining room, and a second-story loft that can be used as a large game/media room. A covered porch greets you as you enter the Waring III. The dining room can be optioned as a study, and the kitchen, breakfast, and family room lend themselves to a ton of natural light, creating a sizeable open-concept gathering area. The primary suite is on the first floor at the back of the home for maximum privacy and includes an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. The second story offers three bedrooms and a huge loft. Walk-in closets in almost every bedroom provide storage space, making this the perfect two-story home for any family.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,284
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,270
• − Property taxes: −$5,696
• − Insurance: −$1,899
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,223
• − Management: −$3,223
• − Depreciation: −$11,046
• Taxable loss: −$6,072
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,457
• After-tax cash flow: $1,792/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a spacious floor plan with five bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from minor exterior painting and landscaping improvements to further enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase property value
• Both Install smart thermostat — Saves energy and can increase property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase property value ↑
• Both Install smart thermostat — Saves energy and can increase property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Weston Lakes

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1122
• US rank: #19641

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,324
• Household income: $184,390
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
• Current HPI: 275.8798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $348,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-21 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-18 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-17 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-17 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $346,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-04 Listed $344,990 Zillow