The Waring III Plan · Fulshear, TX 77441

$348,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,694 sqft · SingleFamily · 426 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Waring III plan is a two-story home featuring five bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms, a formal dining room, and a second-story loft that can be used as a large game/media room. A covered porch greets you as you enter the Waring III. The dining room can be optioned as a study, and the kitchen, breakfast, and family room lend themselves to a ton of natural light, creating a sizeable open-concept gathering area. The primary suite is on the first floor at the back of the home for maximum privacy and includes an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. The second story offers three bedrooms and a huge loft. Walk-in closets in almost every bedroom provide storage space, making this the perfect two-story home for any family.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Formal dining room
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• SECOND STORY LOFT
• OPEN-CONCEPT GATHERING AREA
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• GENEROUS WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $348,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $380,005.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $349k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $26 ($311/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $336k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $307k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.5% in Fulshear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Huggins El (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 893 students, 23% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lamar CISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1601 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 426 days — a 12% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $307,111 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 426 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.29%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $380,005
• List price: $348,990
• Delta: -8.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8434 Calico Pennant Way	0.15mi	5/3.5	2,841 (+6%)	1mo	$413,085	$145	79
8239 Red Shiner Way	0.22mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,725 (+1%)	2mo	$384,990	$141	79
32332 Bluetipped Dancer	0.36mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,673 (-1%)	2mo	$424,900	$159	76
32452 Forktail Lake Dr	0.36mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,718 (+1%)	5mo	$545,990	$201	71
32350 Slender Spreadwing Dr	0.37mi	5/3.5	2,841 (+6%)	2mo	$412,945	$145	68
8235 Red Shiner Way	0.21mi	5/4.0	2,949 (+10%)	4mo	$414,990	$141	65
32441 Forktail Lake Dr	0.36mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,988 (+11%)	4mo	$549,990	$184	53
8023 River Bluet Pl	0.39mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,048 (+13%)	2mo	$870,000	$285	51
8006 River Bluet Pl	0.43mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,018 (+12%)	4mo	$560,990	$186	50
7927 River Bluet Pl	0.41mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,016 (+12%)	1mo	$664,990	$220	49
7814 River Bluet Pl	0.51mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,031 (+12%)	4mo	$579,990	$191	45
33026 School Hill Rd	0.58mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,399 (-11%)	2mo	$339,990	$142	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-69,716
• Equity at exit: $56,660

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-96,398
• Equity at exit: $32,856

Cash invested: $106,401 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 87 active · 33 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.0 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $484,000 ($170/sqft)
• Median days on market: 59 d
• This list price: 8% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -17.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77441

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1601
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,357 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,993
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$475 /mo · $5,700/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$705
• Net cashflow: $26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,324

Max offer price $380,005

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $289	-5% $157	+0% $26	+5% $-105	+10% $-237
Rent	-10% $-239	-5% $-107	+0% $26	+5% $158	+10% $291
Rate	-1.0pp $217	-0.5pp $123	base $26	+0.5pp $-73	+1.0pp $-173

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $95,001
• Closing costs: $11,400
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8106 Royal Palm Ct Fulshear, TX	5.0	4.0	2946	$2,950	$1.00	93d	1	1.33mi
8114 Royal Palm Ct Fulshear, TX	5.0	4.0	2960	$3,295	$1.11	93d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $348,990 Active 426 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $348,990 Active 424 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $348,990 Active 423 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $348,990 Active 422 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $348,990 Active 421 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $348,990 Active 418 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $348,990 Active 416 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $348,990 Active 415 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $348,990 Active 413 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $348,990 Active 411 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $348,990 Active 410 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $348,990 Active 409 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $348,990 Active 408 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $348,990 Active 407 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $348,990 Active 404 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $348,990 Active 403 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $348,990 Active 402 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $348,990 Active 401 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $348,990 Active 400 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $348,990 Active 399 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $348,990 Active 398 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $348,990 Active 397 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $348,990 Active 396 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $348,990 Active 394 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $348,990 Active 393 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $348,990 Active 392 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $348,990 Active 391 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $348,990 Active 390 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $348,990 Active 389 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $348,990 Active 388 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $348,990 Active 387 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $348,990 Active 386 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $348,990 Active 385 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $348,990 Active 384 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $348,990 Active 383 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $348,990 Active 381 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $348,990 Active 379 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $348,990 Active 378 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $348,990 Active 375 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $348,990 Active 374 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $348,990 Active 373 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $348,990 Active 372 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $348,990 Active 370 DOM
44. 2026-06-10
    days on market $348,990 Active 366 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $348,990 Active 365 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $348,990 Active 364 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $348,990 Active 361 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $348,990 Active 360 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $348,990 Active 359 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $348,990 Active 358 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,284
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,286
• − Property taxes: −$5,700
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,223
• − Management: −$3,223
• − Depreciation: −$11,055
• Taxable loss: −$6,103
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,465
• After-tax cash flow: $1,775/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a spacious floor plan with five bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from minor exterior painting and landscaping improvements to further enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase property value ↑
• Both Install smart thermostat — Saves energy and can increase property value ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 63/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Huggins El B TX #321/4,322 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle Dean Leaman J H School B TX #206/1,662 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Foster H S B TX #141/1,632 Nat'l #2,354/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Fulshear

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 41,324
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,324
• Household income: $184,390
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
• Current HPI: 275.8798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $348,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-21 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-18 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-17 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-17 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $346,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-04 Listed $344,990 Zillow