2809 Acorn Dr · Violet, LA 70092

$195,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,473 sqft · SingleFamily · 91 Days on market

Built 1981 0.28 ac lot Est $188k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

JUST REDUCED!! 4 Bedroom / 3.5 Bath Stately Home located in Oak Ridge subdivision on Double Lot! On the exterior, the home features a double car garage with bathroom, carport, covered patio, and fenced yard. The interior features a marbled entry into the spacious family room with fireplace, and separate dining room and breakfast bar. The primary suite is spacious and includes a jetted tub and separate shower. The other bedrooms are also large and have plenty of closet space. Sold in As-Is condition. Electric and gas will not be connected for inspections due to permit and repair requirements. Won't last long! Call your agent today to schedule your private showing.

Key facts

• Double car garage
• Fenced yard
• Double lot

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• DOUBLE CAR GARAGE
• COVERED PATIO
• FENCED YARD
• MARBLED ENTRY
• FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $662 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $177k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#269 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 112 units permitted in St. Bernard Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Bernard County population projected at +89% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.00%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $187,948
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2816 Oak Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,583 (+4%)	2mo	$195,267	$76	85
2300 Kenneth Dr	0.45mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,257 (-9%)	17mo	$165,787	$73	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $10,661
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $64,024
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70092

• Home prices YoY: -3.7%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$301 /mo · $3,612/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $662

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,862

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12801 River Rd New Orleans, LA	3.0	2.0	2218	$2,700	$1.22	1d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-03-21
   status Pending 671-char remark

   Show marketing remark (671 chars)

   JUST REDUCED!! 4 Bedroom / 3.5 Bath Stately Home located in Oak Ridge subdivision on Double Lot! On the exterior, the home features a double car garage with bathroom, carport, covered patio, and fenced yard. The interior features a marbled entry into the spacious family room with fireplace, and separate dining room and breakfast bar. The primary suite is spacious and includes a jetted tub and separate shower. The other bedrooms are also large and have plenty of closet space. Sold in As-Is condition. Electric and gas will not be connected for inspections due to permit and repair requirements. Won't last long! Call your agent today to schedule your private showing.

2. 2026-03-21
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (671 chars)

   JUST REDUCED!! 4 Bedroom / 3.5 Bath Stately Home located in Oak Ridge subdivision on Double Lot! On the exterior, the home features a double car garage with bathroom, carport, covered patio, and fenced yard. The interior features a marbled entry into the spacious family room with fireplace, and separate dining room and breakfast bar. The primary suite is spacious and includes a jetted tub and separate shower. The other bedrooms are also large and have plenty of closet space. Sold in As-Is condition. Electric and gas will not be connected for inspections due to permit and repair requirements. Won't last long! Call your agent today to schedule your private showing.

3. 2026-02-27
   price $195,000 671-char remark

   Show marketing remark (671 chars)

   JUST REDUCED!! 4 Bedroom / 3.5 Bath Stately Home located in Oak Ridge subdivision on Double Lot! On the exterior, the home features a double car garage with bathroom, carport, covered patio, and fenced yard. The interior features a marbled entry into the spacious family room with fireplace, and separate dining room and breakfast bar. The primary suite is spacious and includes a jetted tub and separate shower. The other bedrooms are also large and have plenty of closet space. Sold in As-Is condition. Electric and gas will not be connected for inspections due to permit and repair requirements. Won't last long! Call your agent today to schedule your private showing.

4. 2026-02-27
   price $195,000

   Show marketing remark (671 chars)

   JUST REDUCED!! 4 Bedroom / 3.5 Bath Stately Home located in Oak Ridge subdivision on Double Lot! On the exterior, the home features a double car garage with bathroom, carport, covered patio, and fenced yard. The interior features a marbled entry into the spacious family room with fireplace, and separate dining room and breakfast bar. The primary suite is spacious and includes a jetted tub and separate shower. The other bedrooms are also large and have plenty of closet space. Sold in As-Is condition. Electric and gas will not be connected for inspections due to permit and repair requirements. Won't last long! Call your agent today to schedule your private showing.

5. 2026-01-24
   price $205,000 671-char remark

   Show marketing remark (671 chars)

   JUST REDUCED!! 4 Bedroom / 3.5 Bath Stately Home located in Oak Ridge subdivision on Double Lot! On the exterior, the home features a double car garage with bathroom, carport, covered patio, and fenced yard. The interior features a marbled entry into the spacious family room with fireplace, and separate dining room and breakfast bar. The primary suite is spacious and includes a jetted tub and separate shower. The other bedrooms are also large and have plenty of closet space. Sold in As-Is condition. Electric and gas will not be connected for inspections due to permit and repair requirements. Won't last long! Call your agent today to schedule your private showing.

6. 2026-01-24
   price $205,000

   Show marketing remark (671 chars)

   JUST REDUCED!! 4 Bedroom / 3.5 Bath Stately Home located in Oak Ridge subdivision on Double Lot! On the exterior, the home features a double car garage with bathroom, carport, covered patio, and fenced yard. The interior features a marbled entry into the spacious family room with fireplace, and separate dining room and breakfast bar. The primary suite is spacious and includes a jetted tub and separate shower. The other bedrooms are also large and have plenty of closet space. Sold in As-Is condition. Electric and gas will not be connected for inspections due to permit and repair requirements. Won't last long! Call your agent today to schedule your private showing.

7. 2025-12-18
   listed $215,000 Active 671-char remark

   Show marketing remark (671 chars)

   JUST REDUCED!! 4 Bedroom / 3.5 Bath Stately Home located in Oak Ridge subdivision on Double Lot! On the exterior, the home features a double car garage with bathroom, carport, covered patio, and fenced yard. The interior features a marbled entry into the spacious family room with fireplace, and separate dining room and breakfast bar. The primary suite is spacious and includes a jetted tub and separate shower. The other bedrooms are also large and have plenty of closet space. Sold in As-Is condition. Electric and gas will not be connected for inspections due to permit and repair requirements. Won't last long! Call your agent today to schedule your private showing.

8. 2025-12-18
   listed $215,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (671 chars)

   JUST REDUCED!! 4 Bedroom / 3.5 Bath Stately Home located in Oak Ridge subdivision on Double Lot! On the exterior, the home features a double car garage with bathroom, carport, covered patio, and fenced yard. The interior features a marbled entry into the spacious family room with fireplace, and separate dining room and breakfast bar. The primary suite is spacious and includes a jetted tub and separate shower. The other bedrooms are also large and have plenty of closet space. Sold in As-Is condition. Electric and gas will not be connected for inspections due to permit and repair requirements. Won't last long! Call your agent today to schedule your private showing.

9. 2019-08-02
   soldstatus $250,000
10. 2019-07-31
    soldstatus $250,000 Closed
11. 2019-06-01
    status Pending
12. 2018-12-04
    listed $289,000
13. 2018-12-04
    listed $289,000 Active
14. 2018-08-22
    historical
15. 2018-05-08
    price $289,000
16. 2018-03-06
    listed $299,000 Active
17. 2018-03-06
    listed $289,000
18. 2007-05-29
    soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,612 · $301/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,612 · $301/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 60% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$3,612
• − Insurance: −$1,772
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,592
• − Management: −$2,592
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $5,236
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,257
• After-tax cash flow: $6,684/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Violet

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #269
• US rank: #19722

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Violet, LA
• City population: 6,784
• Population (ZIP): 6,784

Population outlook (St. Bernard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,513 people
• By 2030: 77,768 · +16.9%
• By 2040: 101,296 · +52.3%
• By 2050: 125,770 · +89.1%
• By 2075: 188,160 · +182.9%
• By 2100: 239,339 · +259.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Black 43% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Iranian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Bernard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.3) · D 34.5% · R 63.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.1pp toward D · 2008: -45.4pp · 2024: -29.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.3 2020: R+28.5 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+24.7 2008: R+45.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.36%
• Current HPI: 218.6728
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+95.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-03-21 Pending — GSREIN
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $195,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $195,000 GSREIN
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $205,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $205,000 GSREIN
• 2025-12-18 Listed $215,000 GSREIN
• 2025-12-18 Listed $215,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2019-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2019-07-31 Sold (MLS) $250,000 GSREIN
• 2019-06-01 Pending — GSREIN
• 2018-12-04 Listed $289,000 GSREIN
• 2018-12-04 Listed $289,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2018-08-22 Listing Removed — GSREIN
• 2018-05-08 Price Changed $289,000 GSREIN
• 2018-03-06 Listed $289,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2018-03-06 Listed $299,000 GSREIN
• 2007-05-29 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,612 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.