21508 Weinberger Rd · Ponchatoula, LA 70454

$137,800

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,018 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 406 Days on market

Built 1939 3.05 ac lot $135/sqft · 36% below area Est $233k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOOKING FOR A FIXER UPPER ON LAND? THIS HOME OFFERS THE OPPORTUNITY TO CREATE YOUR DREAM COTTAGE OR INVESTMENT PROPERTY. LOCATED ON 3 ACRES PLUS A WORKSHOP. GREAT BONES JUST NEEDS SOME TLC TO BRING IT BACK TO IT'S FULL POTENTIAL.

Key facts

• Workshop
• 3 acres
• 3.05 acre lot

Tags

• 3 ACRES
• WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $389 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $138k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 5.1% in Ponchatoula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#91 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Tangipahoa Parish (rural): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #63 of 98 in LA (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 526 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,085 units permitted in Tangipahoa Parish in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $953 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tangipahoa County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 406 days — a 12% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,264 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 406 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.10%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $233,045
• List price: $137,800
• Delta: -40.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,198
• Equity at exit: $20,546

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $16,572
• Equity at exit: $11,914

Cash invested: $38,584 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70454

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 526
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,569 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$723
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $846/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,077

Max offer price $137,800

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,450
• Closing costs: $4,134
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20276 Weinberger Rd Ponchatoula, LA	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,200	$0.93	44d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $137,800 Active 406 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $137,800 Active 405 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $137,800 Active 404 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $137,800 Active 403 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $137,800 Active 402 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $137,800 Active 400 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $137,800 Active 399 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $137,800 Active 397 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $137,800 Active 396 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $137,800 Active 395 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $137,800 Active 394 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $137,800 Active 391 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $137,800 Active 390 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $137,800 Active 389 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $137,800 Active 388 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $137,800 Active 387 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $137,800 Active 386 DOM
18. 2025-11-10
    status Active 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    LOOKING FOR A FIXER UPPER ON LAND? THIS HOME OFFERS THE OPPORTUNITY TO CREATE YOUR DREAM COTTAGE OR INVESTMENT PROPERTY. LOCATED ON 3 ACRES PLUS A WORKSHOP. GREAT BONES JUST NEEDS SOME TLC TO BRING IT BACK TO IT'S FULL POTENTIAL.

19. 2025-11-10
    historical 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    LOOKING FOR A FIXER UPPER ON LAND? THIS HOME OFFERS THE OPPORTUNITY TO CREATE YOUR DREAM COTTAGE OR INVESTMENT PROPERTY. LOCATED ON 3 ACRES PLUS A WORKSHOP. GREAT BONES JUST NEEDS SOME TLC TO BRING IT BACK TO IT'S FULL POTENTIAL.

20. 2025-05-08
    listed $145,000 Active 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    LOOKING FOR A FIXER UPPER ON LAND? THIS HOME OFFERS THE OPPORTUNITY TO CREATE YOUR DREAM COTTAGE OR INVESTMENT PROPERTY. LOCATED ON 3 ACRES PLUS A WORKSHOP. GREAT BONES JUST NEEDS SOME TLC TO BRING IT BACK TO IT'S FULL POTENTIAL.

21. 2025-05-08
    listed $145,000 Active 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    LOOKING FOR A FIXER UPPER ON LAND? THIS HOME OFFERS THE OPPORTUNITY TO CREATE YOUR DREAM COTTAGE OR INVESTMENT PROPERTY. LOCATED ON 3 ACRES PLUS A WORKSHOP. GREAT BONES JUST NEEDS SOME TLC TO BRING IT BACK TO IT'S FULL POTENTIAL.

22. 2002-01-22
    soldstatus $95,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $846 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $846 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,830
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,719
• − Property taxes: −$846
• − Insurance: −$689
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,506
• − Management: −$1,506
• − Depreciation: −$4,009
• Taxable income: $2,554
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$613
• After-tax cash flow: $4,056/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tangipahoa Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201680
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $41,283
• Composite: 19.94/100
• National rank: #8676
• State rank: #63 of 98 in LA

Livability — Ponchatoula

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #91
• US rank: #9755

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tangipahoa Parish · 85,958 people
• City population: 34,564
• Metro: Hammond, LA
• Population (ZIP): 34,564
• Household income: $71,611
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 479.0

Population outlook (Tangipahoa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,204 people
• By 2030: 151,413 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 164,374 · +14.0%
• By 2050: 175,427 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 195,165 · +35.3%
• By 2100: 201,641 · +39.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Tangipahoa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.6% · R 68.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -30.9pp · 2024: -37.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+32.6 2012: R+27.7 2008: R+30.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.55%
• Current HPI: 129.6069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.66%
• Metro: Hammond, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+52.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-10 Relisted — GSREIN
• 2025-11-10 Listing Removed — GSREIN
• 2025-05-08 Listed $145,000 GSREIN
• 2025-05-08 Listed $145,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2002-01-22 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $846 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.