817 Oak Forest Dr · The Villages, FL 32162

$450,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,048 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2000 7,437 sqft lot Est $463k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. NO BOND | HEATED POOL + HOT TUB | PRIVATE BACKYARD OASIS This beautiful Belmont floor plan offers the perfect blend of comfort, upgrades, and Florida lifestyle living. Featuring a heated pool, hot tub, and cozy fireplace, this home is designed for both relaxation and entertaining. Step outside to your exceptional outdoor retreat, complete with a tiled, screened-in patio and expansive birdcage enclosure, all surrounded by mature landscaping for enhanced privacy and curb appeal. Ideally located across from the Polo Fields and just minutes to Saddlebrook Recreation Center, community pools, and amenities, this home combines tranquility with con

Key facts

• Separate birdcage
• Hot tub
• Heated pool

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD OASIS
• HEATED POOL
• HOT TUB
• TILED SCREENED IN PATIO
• SEPARATE BIRDCAGE
• BLOCK STUCCO EXTERIOR

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is homesteaded and within a CDD; Irrigation equipment installed
• HOA & community: Community pool and recreational facilities included in association fee; Community mailbox; Deed restrictions; Golf and golf-cart friendly community; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs, with limits)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Sprinkler meter
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; West-facing; Completed condition; Belmont Designer Model
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on less than 1/4 acre lot (approx. 0.17 acres, 67 x 111)
• Exterior features: Rear screened porch; Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Near golf course

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Range; Refrigerator; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Gas fireplace in living room
• Interior features: High ceilings; Open floorplan; Programmable thermostat; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-163 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $421k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $332k (26.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $332k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 550 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,316/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 987% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($443k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $331,620 (26.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.56%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $462,848
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3153 Gooding Pl	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,911 (-7%)	5mo	$420,000	$220	78
3177 Williams Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,894 (-8%)	2mo	$420,000	$222	70
3024 Bridgefield Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,920 (-6%)	5mo	$560,000	$292	68
2967 Saint Thomas Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	2,032 (-1%)	2mo	$460,000	$226	65
3328 Archer Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,812 (-12%)	3mo	$415,000	$229	64
3141 Roswell Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	2,216 (+8%)	9mo	$517,500	$234	62
1217 Oak Forest Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	2,021 (-1%)	9mo	$375,000	$186	62
1185 Oak Forest Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,968 (-4%)	8mo	$380,000	$193	60
3065 Batally Ct	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,906 (-7%)	1mo	$275,000	$144	59
3141 Mansfield St	0.46mi	3/2.0	2,340 (+14%)	3mo	$661,000	$282	52
1252 Weaton Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,905 (-7%)	2mo	$330,000	$173	52
342 Mccormick Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,838 (-10%)	10mo	$579,000	$315	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-80,381
• Equity at exit: $67,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-71,058
• Equity at exit: $38,908

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 550
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,316 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$236 /mo · $2,830/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$696
• Net cashflow: $-163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,523

Max offer price $421,130

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $91	-5% $-36	+0% $-163	+5% $-291	+10% $-418
Rent	-10% $-425	-5% $-294	+0% $-163	+5% $-32	+10% $99
Rate	-1.0pp $63	-0.5pp $-49	base $-163	+0.5pp $-280	+1.0pp $-399

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3301 Archer Ave The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	2117	$5,000	$2.36	21d	1	0.31mi
6367 NE 118th Ave The Villages, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1645	$1,925	$1.17	21d	10	0.48mi
3057 Saint Thomas Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	2044	$2,850	$1.39	21d	1	0.69mi
424 Bowman Ter The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$5,400	$2.70	21d	1	0.84mi
12362 NE 50th Vw Oxford, FL	4.0	4.0	1929	$2,300	$1.19	21d	1	1.17mi
12580 NE 49th Dr Oxford, FL	3.0	2.0	1940	$2,400	$1.24	21d	1	1.21mi
12388 NE 48th Loop Oxford, FL	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,700	$1.19	21d	1	1.39mi
2126 Sansores St Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1748	$3,700	$2.12	21d	1	1.40mi
2137 Gerardo Ave Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1940	$5,600	$2.89	21d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $450,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $450,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $450,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $450,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $450,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $450,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $450,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $450,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $450,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $450,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $450,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,830 · $236/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,735 · $311/mo
• Expected delta: +$905/yr (+$75/mo · 32.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,794
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$2,830
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,184
• − Management: −$3,184
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$9,951
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,388
• After-tax cash flow: $427/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Listed $450,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,830 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.