2811 Gulf Ave · Gulfport, MS 39501

$72,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,110 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 279 Days on market

Built 1940 6,969 sqft lot $65/sqft · 38% below area Est $116k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Would be a great investment property but needs TLC. Has good roof. 2801 Gulf also available for sale pkg price for both is $130K. Part of a 28 home pkg.

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1940

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $72k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $449 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $72k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#15 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Gulfport School District (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #37 of 130 in MS (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Central Elem (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #217 of 375 statewide, top 58%, 480 students, 100% FRL); Gulfport Central Middle School (math 20% / reading 23%, grade F, #109 of 179 statewide, top 62%, 585 students, 100% FRL); Gulfport High School (math 42% / reading 36%, grade F, #54 of 197 statewide, top 28%, 1,728 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 67% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Gulfport School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.5%/yr); 254 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $498 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 279 days — a 12% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $72k implies a 289% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 279 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.72%
• DSCR: 2.19
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $115,658
• List price: $72,000
• Delta: -37.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
807 27th St	0.10mi	2/1.0	1,028 (-7%)	4mo	$102,000	$99	80
2305 Roberts Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,110 (0%)	3mo	$129,990	$117	69
2509 6th Ave	0.34mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,100 (-1%)	8mo	$145,500	$132	69
714 Tennessee St	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,187 (+7%)	5mo	$129,900	$109	68
1021 27th St	0.34mi	2/1.0	1,000 (-10%)	4mo	$142,500	$143	64
1305 29th St	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,118 (+1%)	6mo	$136,000	$122	56
2515 East Ave	0.41mi	2/1.0	972 (-12%)	7mo	$98,500	$101	54
623 23rd St	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+8%)	2mo	$169,999	$142	54
2705 Kelly Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (-10%)	3mo	$125,000	$125	52
1233 25th St	0.65mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,144 (+3%)	7mo	$98,000	$86	52
2205 Oak Ave	0.75mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,144 (+3%)	8mo	$139,900	$122	49
2905 Audubon Dr	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	949 (-14%)	1mo	$84,000	$89	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $22,974
• Equity at exit: $10,735

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.18×
• Total profit: $84,355
• Equity at exit: $6,225

Cash invested: $20,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39501

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Rents YoY: 10.5%
• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,146 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$378
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $586/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $449

Break-even live

Break-even rent $578

Max offer price $72,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $490	-5% $469	+0% $449	+5% $429	+10% $408
Rent	-10% $358	-5% $404	+0% $449	+5% $494	+10% $539
Rate	-1.0pp $485	-0.5pp $467	base $449	+0.5pp $430	+1.0pp $411

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,000
• Closing costs: $2,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2823 6th Ave Unit A Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	23d	1	0.17mi
2706 6th Ave Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1217	$1,300	$1.07	23d	1	0.19mi
832 24th St Gulfport, MS	2.0	1.0	800	$950	$1.19	45d	1	0.36mi
2313 5th Ave Gulfport, MS	2.0	1.0	750	$1,000	$1.33	45d	1	0.37mi
2311 5th Ave Gulfport, MS	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,300	$1.18	45d	1	0.38mi
2233 5th Ave Gulfport, MS	3.0	1.0	1215	$1,300	$1.07	45d	1	0.43mi
1224 29th St Gulfport, MS	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,155	$1.10	15d	1	0.54mi
941 22nd St Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,600	$1.10	15d	1	0.58mi
124 30th 1/2 St Gulfport, MS	2.0	1.5	1007	$1,100	$1.09	45d	1	0.68mi
3209 F Ave Gulfport, MS	2.0	1.0	1000	$850	$0.85	45d	1	0.71mi
3333 12th Ave Gulfport, MS	2.0	2.0	1000	$899	$0.90	45d	1	0.80mi
3333 12th Ave Unit 6 Gulfport, MS	2.0	2.5	1000	$899	$0.90	45d	1	0.80mi
1400 28th St Gulfport, MS	2.0–3.0	2.0	1101	$943	$0.86	15d	1	0.84mi
2414 15th Ave Gulfport, MS	2.0	1.0	818	$1,000	$1.22	45d	1	0.93mi
2207 16th Ave Gulfport, MS	2.0	1.0	1325	$1,425	$1.08	15d	1	1.10mi
1605 20th St Gulfport, MS	3.0	3.0	1350	$1,095	$0.81	45d	1	1.10mi
3503 Hancock Ave Gulfport, MS	2.0	2.5	1100	$1,100	$1.00	23d	1	1.11mi
2227 17th Ave Gulfport, MS	2.0	1.0	1000	$850	$0.85	45d	1	1.14mi
1511 2nd St Gulfport, MS	3.0	1.5	1030	$2,000	$1.94	45d	1	1.16mi
2110 30th St Gulfport, MS	2.0	2.0	950	$950	$1.00	23d	1	1.40mi
200 Commerce St Gulfport, MS	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	23d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $72,000 Active 279 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $72,000 Active 276 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $72,000 Active 275 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $72,000 Active 274 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $72,000 Active 273 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $72,000 Active 271 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $72,000 Active 270 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $72,000 Active 268 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $72,000 Active 267 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $72,000 Active 266 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $72,000 Active 265 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $72,000 Active 262 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $72,000 Active 260 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $72,000 Active 259 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $72,000 Active 258 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $72,000 Active 257 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    price $72,000 155-char remark

    Show marketing remark (155 chars)

    Would be a great investment property but needs TLC. Has good roof. 2801 Gulf also available for sale pkg price for both is $130K. Part of a 28 home pkg.

18. 2025-11-10
    price $80,000 155-char remark

    Show marketing remark (155 chars)

    Would be a great investment property but needs TLC. Has good roof. 2801 Gulf also available for sale pkg price for both is $130K. Part of a 28 home pkg.

19. 2025-09-13
    listed $112,000 Active 155-char remark

    Show marketing remark (155 chars)

    Would be a great investment property but needs TLC. Has good roof. 2801 Gulf also available for sale pkg price for both is $130K. Part of a 28 home pkg.

20. 2023-11-15
    historical
21. 2022-10-07
    listed $115,000 Active
22. 2013-04-09
    soldstatus $18,500
23. 2013-04-08
    soldstatus
24. 2013-02-26
    listed $29,900
25. 2008-11-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $586 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $586 · $49/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,752
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,033
• − Property taxes: −$586
• − Insurance: −$360
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,100
• − Management: −$1,100
• − Depreciation: −$2,095
• Taxable income: $4,478
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,075
• After-tax cash flow: $4,312/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gulfport School District
• NCES district ID: 2801710
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $35,712
• Composite: 34.38/100
• National rank: #5213
• State rank: #37 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gulfport

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #5010

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulfport, MS
• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• City population: 96,188
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 22,565
• Household income: $34,758
• Rent vs Own: 60.3% rent · 39.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1516.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 29% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.16%
• Current HPI: 208.998
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.49%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+140.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $72,000 MLSU
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $80,000 MLSU
• 2025-09-13 Listed $112,000 MLSU
• 2023-11-15 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2022-10-07 Listed $115,000 MLSU
• 2013-04-09 Sold (Public Records) $18,500 Public Records
• 2013-04-08 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2013-02-26 Listed $29,900 MLSU
• 2008-11-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $586 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.