1213 W County Rd 125 · Midland, TX 79706

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,160 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 95 Days on market

Built 1940 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

WOW! Renovated and designed for comfort and space, this 3-bedroom home features two beautifully remodeled bathrooms, new carpet, and fresh exterior paint. The oversized primary suite offers a true retreat. Set on acre with two water wells, giving you space, freedom, and long-term value. Turnkey, refreshed, and ready for what's next.

Key facts

• Renovated
• New carpet
• Fresh exterior paint

Tags

• RENOVATED
• REMODELED BATHROOMS
• NEW CARPET
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT
• OVERSIZED PRIMARY SUITE
• TWO WATER WELLS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Wood siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built as residential single family
• Exterior features: Patio; Shed(s); Lot approximately 0.5 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Gas range
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Pantry; Built-in bookcases
• Laundry & utility: Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $337 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Scharbauer El (math 25% / reading 24%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 696 students, 69% FRL); Abell J H (math 32% / reading 43%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 1,095 students, 46% FRL); Legacy H S (math 37% / reading 3%, grade F, #1,397 of 1,632 statewide, top 87%, 2,504 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 379 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,250 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.25%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-23,847
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $3,870
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79706

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 379
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,583 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,764/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $337

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,157

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $492	-5% $415	+0% $337	+5% $259	+10% $181
Rent	-10% $133	-5% $235	+0% $337	+5% $439	+10% $541
Rate	-1.0pp $475	-0.5pp $407	base $337	+0.5pp $265	+1.0pp $193

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1405 W County Road 130 Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	2500	$2,500	$1.00	21d	1	0.58mi
3114 S County Road 1193 Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1957	$2,500	$1.28	14d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-02-25
   price $275,000
4. 2026-02-25
   price $275,000
5. 2026-02-12
   listed $281,000 Active
6. 2025-12-10
   soldstatus
7. 2023-02-01
   price $220,000
8. 2022-11-29
   price $232,000
9. 2007-10-25
   soldstatus
10. 1989-06-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,764 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,032 · $419/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,268/yr (+$272/mo · 185.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,994
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$1,764
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,480
• − Management: −$2,480
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$509
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$122
• After-tax cash flow: $4,163/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,281
• Household income: $108,059
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 303.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 44% Two or more races 13% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Swedish 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 30%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.42%
• Current HPI: 212.6467
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.75%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+18.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — PBBOR
• 2026-04-15 Contingent — PBBOR
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $275,000 ODMLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $275,000 PBBOR
• 2026-02-12 Listed $281,000 PBBOR
• 2025-12-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-02-01 Price Changed $220,000 PBBOR
• 2022-11-29 Price Changed $232,000 PBBOR
• 2007-10-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-06-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,764 · -6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.