12109 La Padera Ln · Black Jack, MO 63033

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,042 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1973 9,513 sqft lot $153/sqft · at area comps Est $168k · at est. $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This spacious ranch features 3 bedroom and 2 bath and tons of updates. Basement is full, partially finished and walks out to a great yard. Did I mention this home is near public transportation, parks, schools, shops and restaurants? The home you've dreamed of with the price you wished for. Make an appointment today

Key facts

• Spacious level lot
• Lower tax rates
• Generous backyard

Tags

• BRICK AND SIDING EXTERIOR
• SPACIOUS LEVEL LOT
• DEDICATED DINING SPACE
• GENEROUS BACKYARD
• LOWER TAX RATES
• HAZELWOOD SCHOOL DISTRICT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Pennyrich Farms HOA; Annual HOA fee of $150; Association provides other amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Off-street parking available; Total parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service: Other
• Home design: Single-family house; One story; Entry level: Main level; Residential property
• Construction: Composition roof; Construction materials: Other; Slab foundation; Built year from public records
• Exterior features: Level lot; Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 71 x 134

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances: Other
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Partially finished basement; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer details not provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $250 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 6.2% in Black Jack — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#132 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Townsend Elem. (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,007 of 1,115 statewide, top 91%, 371 students, 78% FRL); Hazelwood East High (math 5% / reading 21%, grade F, #495 of 521 statewide, top 95%, 1,264 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 53% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,501 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.70%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $168,136
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -4.90%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12136 La Padera Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,060 (+2%)	4mo	$165,000	$156	89
12095 El Camara Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,088 (+4%)	0mo	$154,900	$142	87
6530 Farm Pond Ct	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,060 (+2%)	2mo	$219,900	$207	81
12113 La Padera Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,144 (+10%)	4mo	$149,000	$130	79
12166 La Padera Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,136 (+9%)	2mo	$200,000	$176	77
12178 El Camara Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,144 (+10%)	4mo	$204,900	$179	72
11623 Arroyo Dr	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,042 (0%)	1mo	$174,900	$168	72
6250 Pennyrich Ct	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,186 (+14%)	2mo	$149,000	$126	70
11835 El Camara Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	936 (-10%)	5mo	$124,900	$133	64
11632 Las Ladera Dr	0.53mi	3/1.5	936 (-10%)	1mo	$115,500	$123	55
12045 Victorian Village Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,096 (+5%)	3mo	$104,900	$96	54
30 Tarpon Ct	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,096 (+5%)	2mo	$124,900	$114	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $111,119
• Equity at exit: $144,051

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.47×
• Total profit: $334,406
• Equity at exit: $310,651

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,705 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$179 /mo · $2,146/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,389

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11592 Las Ladera Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	986	$1,616	$1.64	8d	1	0.60mi
11969 Continental Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0–3.0	1.5	1075	$1,325	$1.23	2d	3	0.84mi
1911 Redman Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1454	$1,495	$1.03	2d	1	0.95mi
11321 Amboy Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1182	$1,756	$1.49	2d	1	1.09mi
12810 Verwood Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,026	$1.44	44d	1	1.10mi
12887 Fox Haven Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1135	$1,750	$1.54	44d	1	1.32mi
1708 San Remo Ct St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1053	$1,300	$1.23	2d	9	1.37mi
11470 Latonka Trl Florissant, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	843	$1,050	$1.25	44d	3	1.46mi
4872 Bristol Rock Rd Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,061	$1.42	2d	1	1.47mi
11635 Hazeloak Dr Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,728	$1.54	17d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $159,900 Pending 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $159,900 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $159,900 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $159,900 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $159,900 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $159,900 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-05-06
   listed $159,900 Active 1065-char remark
8. 2021-08-04
   soldstatus $10,788,741
9. 2016-02-22
   soldstatus $70,000
10. 2016-02-18
    soldstatus Closed 316-char remark

    Show marketing remark (316 chars)

    This spacious ranch features 3 bedroom and 2 bath and tons of updates. Basement is full, partially finished and walks out to a great yard. Did I mention this home is near public transportation, parks, schools, shops and restaurants? The home you've dreamed of with the price you wished for. Make an appointment today

11. 2016-02-05
    historical 316-char remark

    Show marketing remark (316 chars)

    This spacious ranch features 3 bedroom and 2 bath and tons of updates. Basement is full, partially finished and walks out to a great yard. Did I mention this home is near public transportation, parks, schools, shops and restaurants? The home you've dreamed of with the price you wished for. Make an appointment today

12. 2016-01-06
    listed $89,000 Active 316-char remark

    Show marketing remark (316 chars)

    This spacious ranch features 3 bedroom and 2 bath and tons of updates. Basement is full, partially finished and walks out to a great yard. Did I mention this home is near public transportation, parks, schools, shops and restaurants? The home you've dreamed of with the price you wished for. Make an appointment today

13. 2012-05-23
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (547 chars)

    This home has great potential you will love the open floor plan great for gatherings and the finished basement is perfect for entertaining. The 2car garage has plenty of space for parking and storage HUD homes are sold as is. Please note utilities are off at this property so bring a flashlight. HUD home. Property to be sold as is with seller doing no repairs or inspections. See agent remarks for bidding instructions. Bidding open to owner occupants, government agencies, and non-profits through 3/2/2012 . Investors may bid after that date.

14. 2012-02-02
    listed $35,000

    Show marketing remark (547 chars)

    This home has great potential you will love the open floor plan great for gatherings and the finished basement is perfect for entertaining. The 2car garage has plenty of space for parking and storage HUD homes are sold as is. Please note utilities are off at this property so bring a flashlight. HUD home. Property to be sold as is with seller doing no repairs or inspections. See agent remarks for bidding instructions. Bidding open to owner occupants, government agencies, and non-profits through 3/2/2012 . Investors may bid after that date.

15. 2005-03-29
    soldstatus $120,000
16. 1987-03-01
    soldstatus
17. 1979-02-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,146 · $179/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,146 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,146
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,637
• − Management: −$1,637
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $477
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$115
• After-tax cash flow: $2,886/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Black Jack

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #7706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 69,104
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+33.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Listed $159,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $10,788,741 Public Records
• 2016-02-22 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2016-02-18 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-05 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-06 Listed $89,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-23 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-02 Listed $35,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 1987-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1979-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,146 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.