Turnbull Plan · Maineville, OH 45039

$396,495

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,774 sqft · SingleFamily · 59 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your new Smart Series home, the Turnbull! Enter from the covered front porch to find 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full baths.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 59 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 8009 Zoar Rd, Maineville, OH 45039
• Financial info: List price $392,995

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached garage with 2 spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Turnbull)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,774

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Turnbull; Active listing

🏗️ New construction. The $396,495 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $419,039.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $396k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-967 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (29.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (38.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (38.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#529 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Little Miami Local (rural): math 67% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #140 of 656 in OH (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Little Miami Primary School (math 76% / reading 65%, grade A-, #376 of 1,584 statewide, top 24%, 855 students, 18% FRL); Little Miami Middle School (math 67% / reading 72%, grade A, #143 of 654 statewide, top 23%, 1,279 students, 16% FRL); Little Miami High School (math 52% / reading 81%, grade B, #150 of 781 statewide, top 20%, 1,445 students, 14% FRL) — zoned schools at 16% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,224 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (474 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$72k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($385k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $244,190 (38.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.89%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $419,039
• List price: $396,495
• Delta: -5.38%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1607 Kilbarron Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,788 (+1%)	4mo	$378,304	$212	82
1625 Kilbarron Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,666 (-6%)	3mo	$382,500	$230	76
1491 Wexler Ct	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,733 (-2%)	1mo	$497,732	$287	74
1391 Brookchase Cir	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,884 (+6%)	2mo	$499,000	$265	70
1675 Mounts Rd	0.10mi	3/3.5 (+1)	1,713 (-3%)	10mo	$394,200	$230	70
1538 Wexler Ct	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,733 (-2%)	6mo	$460,000	$265	69
1382 Brookchase Cir	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,882 (+6%)	3mo	$485,000	$258	68
1497 Wexler Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,842 (+4%)	2mo	$499,840	$271	65
1058 Wood Duck Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,762 (-1%)	8mo	$400,000	$227	60
1367 Huntwick Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,686 (-5%)	10mo	$488,440	$290	58
7682 Crystal Cove Pointe	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,604 (-10%)	4mo	$330,000	$206	55
7783 Crystal Cove Pointe	0.58mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,917 (+8%)	9mo	$455,000	$237	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $178,025
• Equity at exit: $377,503

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.12×
• Total profit: $600,221
• Equity at exit: $814,100

Cash invested: $117,331 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45039

• Home prices YoY: 7.3%
• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,442 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,197
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$524 /mo · $6,286/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $-967

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,666

Max offer price $279,144

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-677	-5% $-822	+0% $-967	+5% $-1,112	+10% $-1,256
Rent	-10% $-1,160	-5% $-1,063	+0% $-967	+5% $-870	+10% $-774
Rate	-1.0pp $-756	-0.5pp $-860	base $-967	+0.5pp $-1,075	+1.0pp $-1,186

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,760
• Closing costs: $12,571
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1624 Rosemore Ln Morrow, OH	3.0	2.5	1900	$2,601	$1.37	14d	1	0.11mi
7831 Healy Dr Maineville, OH	3.0	2.5	2084	$2,671	$1.28	45d	1	1.21mi
330 Heftner Cir Maineville, OH	3.0	2.5	1588	$2,056	$1.29	9d	1	1.35mi
311 Heftner Cir Maineville, OH	3.0	2.5	1442	$2,200	$1.53	14d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $396,495 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $396,495 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $396,495 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $396,495 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $396,495 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $396,495 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $396,495 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $396,495 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $392,995 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $392,995 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $392,995 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $392,995 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $392,995 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-04-23
    listed $392,995 Active 133-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,303
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,473
• − Property taxes: −$6,286
• − Insurance: −$2,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,344
• − Management: −$2,344
• − Depreciation: −$12,190
• Taxable loss: −$19,429
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,663
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,938/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Little Miami Local
• NCES district ID: 3905044
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $74,949
• Composite: 60.5/100
• National rank: #844
• State rank: #140 of 656 in OH

Livability — Maineville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #529
• US rank: #9001

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maineville, OH
• County: Warren County · 196,906 people
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 28,335
• Household income: $108,794
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,603 people
• By 2030: 259,345 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 277,666 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 289,599 · +16.5%
• By 2075: 311,681 · +25.4%
• By 2100: 302,738 · +21.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.5) · D 33.8% · R 65.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: -36.1pp · 2024: -31.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.5 2020: R+30.8 2016: R+37.6 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.63%
• Current HPI: 568.09
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.42%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B