The Emma (212) Plan · Austin, TX 78610

$338,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,127 sqft · SingleFamily · 85 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Start your day with a cup of coffee on the Emma's covered patio. The expansive upstairs loft is perfect for hosting game night or movie nights. Retreat to the downstairs primary suite when you need quiet space.

Key facts

• Upstairs loft
• Covered patio
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• UPSTAIRS LOFT
• DOWNSTAIRS PRIMARY SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $338,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $434,414.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $339k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-970 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (24.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 1.8% in Austin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#16 in TX, #1,208 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1002 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($319k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,261 (24.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.57%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $434,414
• List price: $338,990
• Delta: -21.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6507 Velvet Leaf Ln	0.01mi	4/3.0	2,043 (-4%)	2mo	$390,990	$191	89
6511 Velvet Leaf Ln	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,029 (-5%)	5mo	$364,990	$180	88
6503 Velvet Leaf Ln	0.03mi	4/3.0	2,043 (-4%)	4mo	$365,990	$179	86
6509 Mallord Brook Bnd	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,103 (-1%)	2mo	$359,000	$171	84
6513 Velvet Leaf Ln	0.01mi	4/3.0	2,043 (-4%)	9mo	$384,900	$188	84
6400 Velvet Leaf Ln	0.12mi	4/2.0	2,020 (-5%)	7mo	$397,150	$197	78
6809 Rounded Pebble Ln	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,201 (+4%)	9mo	$411,825	$187	75
6514 Velvet Leaf Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,927 (-9%)	3mo	$399,900	$208	74
6806 Quiet Stream Way	0.31mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,168 (+2%)	9mo	$479,290	$221	68
13100 Dairywork Rd	0.33mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,034 (-4%)	8mo	$399,000	$196	66
12700 Brave Tenderfoot Trl	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,021 (-5%)	10mo	$454,000	$225	62
6822 Rounded Pebble Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,844 (-13%)	9mo	$419,691	$228	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-139,660
• Equity at exit: $64,773

10-year hold

• IRR: -74.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.89×
• Total profit: $-230,125
• Equity at exit: $37,560

Cash invested: $121,636 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78610

• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1002
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,573 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,278
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$543 /mo · $6,516/yr
• Insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $-970

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,800

Max offer price $294,086

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,604
• Closing costs: $13,032
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12603 Purple Prairie Ln Buda, TX	4.0	3.0	2691	$2,995	$1.11	4d	1	0.12mi
6501 Dragride Rd Buda, TX	5.0	3.0	2585	$2,595	$1.00	16d	1	0.14mi
6400 Rounded Pebble Ln Buda, TX	5.0	3.0	2812	$2,997	$1.07	10d	1	0.17mi
12309 Dairywork Rd Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1688	$2,300	$1.36	43d	1	0.24mi
6401 Mallord Brook Bnd Buda, TX	4.0	2.5	2072	$2,900	$1.40	43d	1	0.27mi
13013 Barrister Ln Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1591	$2,050	$1.29	43d	1	0.27mi
13107 Barrister Ln Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1591	$2,200	$1.38	43d	1	0.29mi
12809 Village Spun Plz Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1755	$2,000	$1.14	24d	1	0.36mi
11633 Lago de Garda Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1513	$1,995	$1.32	43d	1	1.06mi
11628 Lago de Garda Dr Austin, TX	5.0	2.5	2637	$2,695	$1.02	4d	1	1.07mi
11620 Comano Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1547	$2,600	$1.68	4d	1	1.10mi
11416 Milano Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1698	$2,050	$1.21	43d	1	1.22mi
11701 Domenico Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,995	$1.32	16d	1	1.25mi
5705 Respinto Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$2,150	$1.40	20d	1	1.26mi
5604 Respinto Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,920	$1.33	3d	1	1.27mi
11612 Domenico Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1668	$2,400	$1.44	17d	1	1.28mi
4907 Escape Rivera Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1718	$2,350	$1.37	17d	1	1.31mi
11513 Murano Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1468	$2,100	$1.43	43d	1	1.34mi
11802 Hurricane Haze Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2146	$2,845	$1.33	20d	1	1.43mi
11313 County Down Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	2334	$2,900	$1.24	14d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $338,990 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $338,990 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $338,990 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $338,990 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $338,990 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $338,990 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $338,990 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $338,990 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $338,990 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $338,990 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $338,990 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $338,990 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $338,990 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-03-25
    listed $338,990 Active 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    Start your day with a cup of coffee on the Emma's covered patio. The expansive upstairs loft is perfect for hosting game night or movie nights. Retreat to the downstairs primary suite when you need quiet space.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,871
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,334
• − Property taxes: −$6,516
• − Insurance: −$2,172
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,470
• − Management: −$2,470
• − Depreciation: −$12,638
• Taxable loss: −$19,728
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,735
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,903/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Austin

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #1208

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 1,066,854
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,319
• Household income: $119,698
• Rent vs Own: 21.2% rent · 78.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 611.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.50%
• Current HPI: 220.6824
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.80%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $338,990 Zillow