1040 Chestnut Rd · Ashland City, TN 37015

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1995 1.59 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BUYER HAS OPTIONS~this property provides options to any potential buyers~a large single wide mobile home with an addition boasts a rare 1725sqft~a mostly flat lot with almost 400' of road frontage~it is a blessing to have city water, electric, septic and high speed internet~live in the current home while you build your dream home OR buy it to build your rental portfolio and then watch the property appreciate just because they don't make land anymore~Property is not located in a flood zone according to maps~located with a short drive to Nashville West, maybe take a scenic drive over to Dickson but with choices on the various ways to road trip you can travel as far as you can dream, LVP Floors throughout~creek touches corner of lot

Key facts

• Master suite
• Master bath
• Two closets

Tags

• MASTER SUITE
• TWO CLOSETS
• MASTER BATH
• DOUBLE VANITIES
• FLAT LOT
• ROAD FRONTAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximate living area 1,725 square feet; Lot size approximately 1.59 acres

Exterior

• Parking: No covered spaces indicated; No total parking spaces indicated
• Utilities: Public water available; Septic tank; Electricity available
• Home design: Residential mobile home; One story
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof; Existing structure
• Exterior features: Covered porch; On a property with creek frontage; Lot is level to sloped

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level); Bedroom sizes approximately 15x12, 15x10, and 11x8
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Master bathroom with double vanity
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room (approximately 7x4)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $436 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 3.4% in Ashland City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#138 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cheatham County (rural): math 24% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #74 of 139 in TN (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ashland City Elementary (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #496 of 952 statewide, top 55%, 443 students, 0% FRL); Cheatham Co Central (math 2% / reading 32%, grade F, #215 of 332 statewide, top 67%, 581 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 40% district-wide (40 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 271 units permitted in Cheatham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.05%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-625
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $28,541
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37015

• Home prices YoY: -21.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,864 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $429/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $436

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-19
   remarks 699-char remark

   Show marketing remark (739 chars)

   BUYER HAS OPTIONS~this property provides options to any potential buyers~a large single wide mobile home with an addition boasts a rare 1725sqft~a mostly flat lot with almost 400' of road frontage~it is a blessing to have city water, electric, septic and high speed internet~live in the current home while you build your dream home OR buy it to build your rental portfolio and then watch the property appreciate just because they don't make land anymore~Property is not located in a flood zone according to maps~located with a short drive to Nashville West, maybe take a scenic drive over to Dickson but with choices on the various ways to road trip you can travel as far as you can dream, LVP Floors throughout~creek touches corner of lot

2. 2026-06-19
   listed $165,000 Active 1 DOM

   Show marketing remark (739 chars)

   BUYER HAS OPTIONS~this property provides options to any potential buyers~a large single wide mobile home with an addition boasts a rare 1725sqft~a mostly flat lot with almost 400' of road frontage~it is a blessing to have city water, electric, septic and high speed internet~live in the current home while you build your dream home OR buy it to build your rental portfolio and then watch the property appreciate just because they don't make land anymore~Property is not located in a flood zone according to maps~located with a short drive to Nashville West, maybe take a scenic drive over to Dickson but with choices on the various ways to road trip you can travel as far as you can dream, LVP Floors throughout~creek touches corner of lot

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $429 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,172 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: +$742/yr (+$62/mo · 173.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,362
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$429
• − Insurance: −$1,622
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,789
• − Management: −$1,789
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $2,690
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$646
• After-tax cash flow: $4,586/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cheatham County
• NCES district ID: 4700570
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,027
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7949
• State rank: #74 of 139 in TN

Livability — Ashland City

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #12483

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cheatham County · 18,988 people
• City population: 18,988
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 18,988
• Household income: $79,092
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 396.0

Population outlook (Cheatham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,312 people
• By 2030: 41,739 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 41,726 · +1.0%
• By 2050: 40,413 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 37,125 · -10.1%
• By 2100: 31,619 · -23.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Cheatham

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.3% · R 72.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.2pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+44.0 2016: R+46.9 2012: R+37.0 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.06%
• Current HPI: 313.8358
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.13%
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Listed $165,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-19 Listed $165,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $429 · +11.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.