26 Normanton Ave · Leisure Knoll, NJ 08759

$324,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,838 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1986 7,405 sqft lot $177/sqft · 21% below area Est $409k · 21% under $218/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this spacious and well-maintained home in a desirable 55+ community in Manchester, NJ! Offering over 1,800 square feet of comfortable living space, this charming residence features 2 generously sized bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, thoughtfully designed for easy, single-level living. The home boasts a bright and open layout with ample room for both relaxing and entertaining. A well-appointed kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining and living areas, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The primary suite includes a private bath and plenty of closet space, while the second bedroom is perfect for guests or a home office. Additional highlights include a convenient 1-car garage, plenty of storage throughout, and low-maintenance living.

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-195 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $291k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (10.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $291k (10.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.1% in Leisure Knoll — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#346 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manchester Township Elementary School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #642 of 1,303 statewide, top 50%, 514 students, 45% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 23% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 658 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $325k implies a 253% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $290,525 (10.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.57%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $409,067
• List price: $324,900
• Delta: -20.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23 Blackthorn Pl	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,942 (+6%)	2mo	$320,000	$165	78
4 Harrogate Ln	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,714 (-7%)	2mo	$310,000	$181	76
9 Romford Ln	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,616 (-12%)	1mo	$337,500	$209	73
41 Tarworth Ter	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,714 (-7%)	3mo	$305,000	$178	71
47 Sandhurst St	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,714 (-7%)	0mo	$340,000	$198	68
63 Red Hill Rd	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,714 (-7%)	2mo	$417,000	$243	67
18 Flintshire Ter	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,942 (+6%)	1mo	$450,000	$232	63
42 Twyford Ln	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,714 (-7%)	2mo	$390,000	$228	58
23 Twyford Ln	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,714 (-7%)	2mo	$445,000	$260	58
569B Mayfair Rd	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,602 (-13%)	2mo	$285,000	$178	55
707 Wooton Ct Unit C	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,602 (-13%)	0mo	$329,900	$206	46
708C Wooton Ct	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,602 (-13%)	3mo	$292,000	$182	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-64,847
• Equity at exit: $48,444

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-71,638
• Equity at exit: $28,091

Cash invested: $90,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 658
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,905 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$433 /mo · $5,193/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$218
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$610
• Net cashflow: $-195

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,152

Max offer price $290,525

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-11	-5% $-103	+0% $-195	+5% $-287	+10% $-379
Rent	-10% $-424	-5% $-309	+0% $-195	+5% $-80	+10% $35
Rate	-1.0pp $-31	-0.5pp $-112	base $-195	+0.5pp $-279	+1.0pp $-364

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,225
• Closing costs: $9,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19 Marlow Ave Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	1551	$2,400	$1.55	0d	1	0.48mi
2501 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1252	$3,468	$2.77	0d	6	0.84mi
52 Rockingham Way #1 Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.5	1848	$3,275	$1.77	45d	1	1.15mi
150 Farm Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1280	$3,000	$2.34	24d	1	1.21mi
616 Lawrence Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.5	1508	$3,100	$2.06	4d	1	1.35mi
2035 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,775	$2.02	0d	3	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $218 · $2,616/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 754-char remark

   Show marketing remark (754 chars)

   Welcome to this spacious and well-maintained home in a desirable 55+ community in Manchester, NJ! Offering over 1,800 square feet of comfortable living space, this charming residence features 2 generously sized bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, thoughtfully designed for easy, single-level living. The home boasts a bright and open layout with ample room for both relaxing and entertaining. A well-appointed kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining and living areas, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The primary suite includes a private bath and plenty of closet space, while the second bedroom is perfect for guests or a home office. Additional highlights include a convenient 1-car garage, plenty of storage throughout, and low-maintenance living.

2. 2026-04-08
   price $324,900 754-char remark

   Show marketing remark (754 chars)

   Welcome to this spacious and well-maintained home in a desirable 55+ community in Manchester, NJ! Offering over 1,800 square feet of comfortable living space, this charming residence features 2 generously sized bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, thoughtfully designed for easy, single-level living. The home boasts a bright and open layout with ample room for both relaxing and entertaining. A well-appointed kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining and living areas, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The primary suite includes a private bath and plenty of closet space, while the second bedroom is perfect for guests or a home office. Additional highlights include a convenient 1-car garage, plenty of storage throughout, and low-maintenance living.

3. 2026-03-17
   listed $349,900 Active 754-char remark

   Show marketing remark (754 chars)

   Welcome to this spacious and well-maintained home in a desirable 55+ community in Manchester, NJ! Offering over 1,800 square feet of comfortable living space, this charming residence features 2 generously sized bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, thoughtfully designed for easy, single-level living. The home boasts a bright and open layout with ample room for both relaxing and entertaining. A well-appointed kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining and living areas, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The primary suite includes a private bath and plenty of closet space, while the second bedroom is perfect for guests or a home office. Additional highlights include a convenient 1-car garage, plenty of storage throughout, and low-maintenance living.

4. 2023-09-07
   price $375,000
5. 2023-08-07
   price $385,900
6. 2023-07-21
   listed $399,900 Active
7. 1999-05-26
   soldstatus $92,000
8. 1999-01-07
   soldstatus $92,000
9. 1998-12-30
   soldstatus $92,000
10. 1998-11-09
    historical
11. 1998-07-15
    listed $98,500
12. 1986-08-15
    soldstatus $113,740

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,193 · $433/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,641 · $553/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,449/yr (+$121/mo · 27.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,866
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,199
• − Property taxes: −$5,193
• − Insurance: −$1,624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,789
• − Management: −$2,789
• − HOA: −$2,616
• − Depreciation: −$9,452
• Taxable loss: −$7,797
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,871
• After-tax cash flow: $-464/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Leisure Knoll

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #11285

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Knoll, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+185.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $324,900 MOMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $349,900 MOMLS
• 2023-09-07 Price Changed $375,000 MOMLS
• 2023-08-07 Price Changed $385,900 MOMLS
• 2023-07-21 Listed $399,900 MOMLS
• 1999-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records
• 1999-01-07 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records
• 1998-12-30 Sold (MLS) $92,000 MOMLS
• 1998-11-09 Delisted — MOMLS
• 1998-07-15 Listed $98,500 MOMLS
• 1986-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $113,740 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,193 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.