15454 Park Perch Pl · Magnolia, TX 77354

$302,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,614 sqft · Land · 88 Days on market

Built 2026 5,330 sqft lot $188/sqft · at area comps Est $301k · at est. $154/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Paisley floor plan is a great option for a modern, easy-living home! The open concept layout really makes the space feel larger and more connected, which is ideal for hosting or just making everyday life more comfortable. Having the great room, kitchen, and dining area all in one flow makes it feel so spacious. The primary suite is massive and includes a private bath with dual vanity sink. Towards the front of the home are two bedrooms and a shared bath.

Key facts

• Open concept layout
• 5,330 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GREAT ROOM KITCHEN DINING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $303k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-111 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (23.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1621 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($285k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $230,536 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.57%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $301,346
• List price: $302,900
• Delta: 0.52%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $151,776
• Equity at exit: $272,876

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.20×
• Total profit: $441,400
• Equity at exit: $588,468

Cash invested: $84,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1621
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,305 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,588
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $764/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$154
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $-111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,446

Max offer price $283,283

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $60	-5% $-25	+0% $-111	+5% $-197	+10% $-283
Rent	-10% $-293	-5% $-202	+0% $-111	+5% $-20	+10% $71
Rate	-1.0pp $41	-0.5pp $-34	base $-111	+0.5pp $-190	+1.0pp $-269

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,725
• Closing costs: $9,087
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14727 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,700	$1.39	44d	1	0.40mi
14983 Clay Harvest Rdg Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2173	$2,375	$1.09	44d	1	0.55mi
39899 Mill Creek Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,726	$2.47	0d	40	0.64mi
40839 Hawthorne Glades St Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$2,100	$1.82	44d	1	0.80mi
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	44d	1	0.83mi
40558 Berylline Ln Unit NA Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,150	$1.43	25d	1	0.86mi
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	25d	1	1.30mi
937 Gentle Moss Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,635	$1.31	6d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $154 · $1,848/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $302,900 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $302,900 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $302,900 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $302,900 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $302,900 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $302,900 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $302,900 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $302,900 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $302,900 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $302,900 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $302,900 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $302,900 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $302,900 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $302,900 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-03-25
    listed $302,900 Active 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    The Paisley floor plan is a great option for a modern, easy-living home! The open concept layout really makes the space feel larger and more connected, which is ideal for hosting or just making everyday life more comfortable. Having the great room, kitchen, and dining area all in one flow makes it feel so spacious. The primary suite is massive and includes a private bath with dual vanity sink. Towards the front of the home are two bedrooms and a shared bath.

16. 2026-03-11
    listed $302,900 Active 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    The Paisley floor plan is a great option for a modern, easy-living home! The open concept layout really makes the space feel larger and more connected, which is ideal for hosting or just making everyday life more comfortable. Having the great room, kitchen, and dining area all in one flow makes it feel so spacious. The primary suite is massive and includes a private bath with dual vanity sink. Towards the front of the home are two bedrooms and a shared bath.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $764 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,543 · $462/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,779/yr (+$398/mo · 625.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,664
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,967
• − Property taxes: −$764
• − Insurance: −$1,514
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,213
• − Management: −$2,213
• − HOA: −$1,848
• − Depreciation: −$8,812
• Taxable loss: −$6,667
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,600
• After-tax cash flow: $267/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $302,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $302,900 Zillow

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $764 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.