2500 Centennial Rd #618 · Bismarck, ND 58503

$199,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,960 sqft · Manufactured · 140 Days on market

Built 2013 Est $174k · 15% over ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.9/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Daylight windows
• Spacious kitchen
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• FULLY FINISHED GARAGE
• DAYLIGHT WINDOWS
• TWO SEPARATE LIVING AREAS
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• PRIVATE FULLY FENCED YARD
• LAUNDRY NEAR PRIMARY BEDROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Rented lot
• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Centennial Park); Association amenities include a playground and storage

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with 2 spaces; Heated garage; Oversized garage with storage; Garage door opener; Driveway
• Security: Security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available and connected; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); One level; Entry located at one level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; No basement
• Exterior features: Private yard; Private entrance; Deck; Patio; Fenced backyard with wood privacy fencing; Located on a cul-de-sac; Landscaped

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Accessible bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fan(s); Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Pantry; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Security system; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $260 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.1% in Bismarck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#5 in ND, #2,213 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Bismarck 1 (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #25 of 53 in ND (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Simle Middle School (math 34% / reading 39%, grade F, #22 of 35 statewide, top 62%, 1,040 students, 20% FRL); Legacy High School (math 20% / reading 37%, grade F, #104 of 144 statewide, top 72%, 1,418 students, 16% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.8%/yr); 481 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 259 units permitted in Burleigh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burleigh County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $175,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.57%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $174,440
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2500 Centennial Rd #520	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-14%)	1mo	$70,000	$42	60
4124 Arlington Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,848 (-6%)	8mo	$94,900	$51	57
4251 Claridge Loop	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,782 (-9%)	5mo	$160,000	$90	50
2500 Centennial Rd #624	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-14%)	18mo	$164,900	$98	45
4333 Hale Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,708 (-13%)	2mo	$99,900	$58	42
3706 Jericho Rd	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,801 (-8%)	19mo	$260,000	$144	38
4422 Arlington Drive Dr N	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-14%)	8mo	$149,900	$89	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,847
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $67,167
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58503

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Rents YoY: 11.8%
• Active inventory: 481
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,077 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1511 Sharloh Loop Bismarck, ND	3.0	2.5	1728	$2,050	$1.19	21d	1	0.73mi
3103 E Calgary Ave Bismarck, ND	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1079	$1,860	$1.72	21d	6	1.02mi
1834 E Capitol Ave Bismarck, ND	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1116	$1,770	$1.59	21d	13	1.39mi
3009 43rd Ave NE Bismarck, ND	3.0	1.0–2.0	1051	$2,024	$1.93	21d	22	1.47mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,900 Active 140 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 137 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 136 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 134 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 131 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 130 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 129 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 128 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,900 Active 125 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 124 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 123 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 122 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 121 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,900 Active 120 DOM
18. 2026-04-09
    price $199,900
19. 2026-01-30
    listed $214,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,928
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,994
• − Management: −$1,994
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$71
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$17
• After-tax cash flow: $3,133/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bismarck 1
• NCES district ID: 3800014
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,649
• Composite: 36.76/100
• National rank: #4577
• State rank: #25 of 53 in ND

Livability — Bismarck

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #2213

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bismarck, ND
• County: Burleigh County · 97,300 people
• City population: 97,300
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• Population (ZIP): 37,683
• Household income: $102,333
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 814.0

Population outlook (Burleigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,359 people
• By 2030: 133,047 · +11.5%
• By 2040: 161,545 · +35.3%
• By 2050: 191,960 · +60.8%
• By 2075: 274,569 · +130.0%
• By 2100: 350,910 · +194.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 17% Scotch-Irish 4% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burleigh

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.5% · R 70.7% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.7pp toward R · 2008: -23.6pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+40.2 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+32.1 2008: R+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.96%
• Current HPI: 223.9683
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.79%
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $199,900 GNMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $214,900 GNMLS