196 Wilson Ave · Fitzgerald, GA 31750

$79,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 138 Days on market

Built 1952 0.75 ac lot $46/sqft · 50% below area Est $157k · 50% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming traditional home that needs TLC. This 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home. The property is located in a quiet neighborhood near town and local schools. This property has the potential to be a great home at a great location, it needs a great buyer.

Key facts

• Great location
• Local schools
• Quiet neighborhood

Tags

• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• LOCAL SCHOOLS
• GREAT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $392 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 5.0% in Fitzgerald — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#513 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Ben Hill County (rural): math 19% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #145 of 174 in GA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6 units permitted in Ben Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ben Hill County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 96% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.27%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $156,799
• List price: $79,000
• Delta: -43.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
124 N Main Street Ext	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,691 (-2%)	3mo	$149,900	$89	69
127 Carol Cir Unit -	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (-11%)	4mo	$177,665	$116	52
114 Braswell Way	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,594 (-7%)	22mo	$175,000	$110	51
112 Wilson Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,618 (-6%)	22mo	$50,000	$31	50
123 Blueberry Ln	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,479 (-14%)	6mo	$129,000	$87	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $12,165
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $42,738
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31750

• Home prices YoY: -8.0%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,149 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $822/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $392

Break-even live

Break-even rent $653

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $437	-5% $414	+0% $392	+5% $370	+10% $347
Rent	-10% $301	-5% $347	+0% $392	+5% $437	+10% $483
Rate	-1.0pp $432	-0.5pp $412	base $392	+0.5pp $372	+1.0pp $351

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
160 Wilson Ave Fitzgerald, GA	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1066	$1,149	$1.08	44d	4	0.21mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricestatusdays on market $79,000 Price Change 138 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 136 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 135 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 134 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 133 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,000 Active 131 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,000 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,000 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,000 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,000 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $89,000 Active 121 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,000 Active 120 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 119 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 118 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 117 DOM
17. 2026-04-07
    price $89,000 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Charming traditional home that needs TLC. This 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home. The property is located in a quiet neighborhood near town and local schools. This property has the potential to be a great home at a great location, it needs a great buyer.

18. 2026-03-27
    price $64,900 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Charming traditional home that needs TLC. This 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home. The property is located in a quiet neighborhood near town and local schools. This property has the potential to be a great home at a great location, it needs a great buyer.

19. 2026-02-02
    listed $89,900 New 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Charming traditional home that needs TLC. This 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home. The property is located in a quiet neighborhood near town and local schools. This property has the potential to be a great home at a great location, it needs a great buyer.

20. 2025-04-29
    historical
21. 2024-11-12
    price $79,000
22. 2024-11-01
    listed $89,900 New
23. 2005-10-04
    soldstatus $78,842
24. 2002-05-28
    soldstatus $72,000
25. 2002-04-24
    soldstatus $75,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $822 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $822 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 96% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,788
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$822
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,103
• − Management: −$1,103
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $3,642
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$874
• After-tax cash flow: $3,830/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ben Hill County
• NCES district ID: 1300360
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $30,617
• Composite: 16.47/100
• National rank: #9186
• State rank: #145 of 174 in GA

Livability — Fitzgerald

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #513
• US rank: #23277

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 18,582

Population outlook (Ben Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,426 people
• By 2030: 15,788 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 14,582 · -11.2%
• By 2050: 13,351 · -18.7%
• By 2075: 10,301 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 7,652 · -53.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ben Hill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.0) · D 33.8% · R 65.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -13.7pp · 2024: -32.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.0 2020: R+26.2 2016: R+27.6 2012: R+14.9 2008: R+13.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.36%
• Current HPI: 200.1257
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+17.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $89,000 GAMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $64,900 GAMLS
• 2026-02-02 Listed $89,900 GAMLS
• 2025-04-29 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2024-11-12 Price Changed $79,000 GAMLS
• 2024-11-01 Listed $89,900 GAMLS
• 2005-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $78,842 Public Records
• 2002-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2002-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $75,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $822 · +25.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.