216 W Lincolnway St · Osceola, IN 46561

$180,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,824 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1930 9,075 sqft lot $99/sqft · at area comps Est $216k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Unapproved short sale * Check out this charming 3-bedroom home full of potential! With a little TLC, this property can truly shine. This home is being sold As-Is, Where Is. —don’t miss the opportunity to make it your own or add it to your investment portfolio.

Key facts

• 9,075 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1930

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-14 ($-173/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (21.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.4% in Osceola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#144 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Penn-Harris-Madison School Corporation (suburban): math 54% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #19 of 301 in IN (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 113 active listings in the ZIP; 754 units permitted in St. Joseph County in 2024 (460 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $141,547 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.34%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $216,424
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -16.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
418 W Superior St	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,752 (-4%)	5mo	$237,000	$135	76
310 E Adams St	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,818 (-0%)	6mo	$259,000	$142	71
502 W Adams St	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,016 (+10%)	5mo	$264,000	$131	62
304 S Beech Rd	0.37mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,588 (-13%)	9mo	$250,000	$157	46
10249 Charles St	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,899 (+4%)	9mo	$299,000	$157	46
56449 Eastvue Dr	0.74mi	2/1.0	1,714 (-6%)	10mo	$475,000	$277	43
1404 Wilderness Trl	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,635 (-10%)	2mo	$382,000	$234	42
56934 Ash Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,000 (+10%)	4mo	$150,000	$75	42
10425 Appletree Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,641 (-10%)	11mo	$195,000	$119	39
10310 Lindwood Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,636 (-10%)	11mo	$315,000	$193	35
536 Garfield St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,080 (+14%)	10mo	$300,000	$144	31
1409 Wilderness Trl	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,580 (-13%)	10mo	$375,000	$237	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-30,135
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-27,617
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46561

• Home prices YoY: -27.2%
• Active inventory: 113
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,415 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,365/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $-14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,434

Max offer price $177,448

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $87	-5% $36	+0% $-14	+5% $-65	+10% $-116
Rent	-10% $-126	-5% $-70	+0% $-14	+5% $41	+10% $97
Rate	-1.0pp $76	-0.5pp $31	base $-14	+0.5pp $-61	+1.0pp $-109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $180,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $180,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $180,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $180,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $180,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $180,000 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-05-03
    historical Active Under Contract 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    * Unapproved short sale * Check out this charming 3-bedroom home full of potential! With a little TLC, this property can truly shine. This home is being sold As-Is, Where Is. —don’t miss the opportunity to make it your own or add it to your investment portfolio.

17. 2026-05-03
    price $155,000 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    * Unapproved short sale * Check out this charming 3-bedroom home full of potential! With a little TLC, this property can truly shine. This home is being sold As-Is, Where Is. —don’t miss the opportunity to make it your own or add it to your investment portfolio.

18. 2026-04-24
    price $175,000 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    * Unapproved short sale * Check out this charming 3-bedroom home full of potential! With a little TLC, this property can truly shine. This home is being sold As-Is, Where Is. —don’t miss the opportunity to make it your own or add it to your investment portfolio.

19. 2026-04-16
    listed $190,000 Active 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    * Unapproved short sale * Check out this charming 3-bedroom home full of potential! With a little TLC, this property can truly shine. This home is being sold As-Is, Where Is. —don’t miss the opportunity to make it your own or add it to your investment portfolio.

20. 2024-11-05
    status Active
21. 2024-07-02
    status Pending
22. 2024-06-03
    status Active
23. 2024-05-01
    historical
24. 2023-09-10
    price $199,900
25. 2023-09-01
    price $202,500
26. 2023-08-21
    listed $205,000 Active
27. 2022-11-29
    soldstatus $185,000 Closed
28. 2022-09-09
    status Pending
29. 2022-09-06
    price $185,000
30. 2022-08-16
    price $189,900
31. 2022-07-01
    listed $199,900 Active
32. 2014-07-24
    soldstatus $69,000
33. 2013-10-09
    listed $75,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,365 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,447 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$83/yr (+$7/mo · 6.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,986
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$1,365
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,359
• − Management: −$1,359
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$3,316
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$796
• After-tax cash flow: $622/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Penn-Harris-Madison School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1808760
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,421
• Composite: 51.11/100
• National rank: #1764
• State rank: #19 of 301 in IN

Livability — Osceola

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #144
• US rank: #7375

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Osceola, IN
• City population: 14,499
• Population (ZIP): 14,499

Population outlook (St. Joseph County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 273,186 people
• By 2030: 273,594 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 271,641 · -0.6%
• By 2050: 269,187 · -1.5%
• By 2075: 263,136 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 245,659 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Joseph

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 48.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.1pp · 2024: 1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.5 2020: D+5.8 2016: D+0.2 2012: D+3.5 2008: D+17.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.38%
• Current HPI: 217.644
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+105.3% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Contingent — IRMLS
• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $155,000 IRMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $175,000 IRMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $190,000 IRMLS
• 2024-11-05 Relisted — IRMLS
• 2024-07-02 Pending — IRMLS
• 2024-06-03 Relisted — IRMLS
• 2024-05-01 Coming Soon — IRMLS
• 2023-09-10 Price Changed $199,900 IRMLS
• 2023-09-01 Price Changed $202,500 IRMLS
• 2023-08-21 Listed $205,000 IRMLS
• 2022-11-29 Sold (MLS) $185,000 IRMLS
• 2022-09-09 Pending — IRMLS
• 2022-09-06 Price Changed $185,000 IRMLS
• 2022-08-16 Price Changed $189,900 IRMLS
• 2022-07-01 Listed $199,900 IRMLS
• 2014-07-24 Sold (MLS) $69,000 IRMLS
• 2013-10-09 Listed $75,500 IRMLS

Property tax history

-2.6%/yr

Latest (2023): $1,365 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.