2016 Main St Ph 6 · Houston, TX 77002

$399,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 4,021 sqft · Condo public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1965 $99/sqft · 35% below area Est $617k · 35% under $4683/mo HOA · 70% of rent ↓ 45% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4,021 Sq. Ft. Top-floor Penthouse! Step into one of Downtown’s most expansive residences. Elevated Living in the Heart of Downtown, perfectly designed for those who love to host and crave the pulse of city life. A massive 1-bedroom footprint featuring an oversized entertainment wing with panoramic skyline views from the 26th floor. The monthly maintenance fee is truly all-inclusive, covering all utilities (electricity, water, trash, cable) plus building insurance and amenities. Enjoy 24/7 porter service, a fitness center, and a resort-style pool—all without leaving the building Steps from the METRORail, world-class dining, and the Toyota Center.

Key facts

• Fitness center
• 24/7 porter service
• Top-floor penthouse

Tags

• TOP-FLOOR PENTHOUSE
• PANORAMIC SKYLINE VIEWS
• ENTERTAINMENT WING
• FITNESS CENTER
• RESORT-STYLE POOL
• 24/7 PORTER SERVICE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-32k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $76k (80.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $400k).
• Recommended offer: $76k (80.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate -1.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 105 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,681/mo this rent would consume 93% of the median local household income ($86k/yr) (locally 1116% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 70% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $76,485 (80.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: -1.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -27.80%
• DSCR: -0.24
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $616,576
• List price: $399,900
• Delta: -35.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.74% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -48.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.89×
• Total profit: $-211,207
• Equity at exit: $101,481

10-year hold

• IRR: -53.7%
• Equity multiple: -2.81×
• Total profit: $-427,019
• Equity at exit: $110,842

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77002

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,681 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$925 /mo · $11,104/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$4,683
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,403
• Net cashflow: $-2,661

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,049

Max offer price $76,485

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3300 Main St Unit 3165 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2861	$7,461	$2.61	3d	1	0.67mi
3300 Main St Unit 3333 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2861	$7,493	$2.62	11d	1	0.67mi
3010 Chenevert St Unit 3010 Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	3203	$8,000	$2.50	44d	1	0.72mi
3010 Chenevert St Unit 1019638P Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	3196	$7,988	$2.50	8d	1	0.72mi
808 Crawford St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	1740	$12,645	$7.27	1d	30	0.88mi
3411 Yoakum Blvd Unit 3165 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	3110	$12,272	$3.95	3d	1	1.31mi
3411 Yoakum Blvd Unit 510 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	3110	$12,304	$3.96	11d	1	1.31mi
1211 Marconi St Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	3020	$4,500	$1.49	44d	1	1.34mi
4606 Austin St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2950	$3,000	$1.02	44d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $4,683 · $56,196/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashelectriccableinsurancepoolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on marketlisting id $399,900 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,900 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,900 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,900 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,900 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $399,900 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,900 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,900 Active 93 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $399,900 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,900 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,900 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-03-06
    listed $399,900 Active 665-char remark

    Show marketing remark (665 chars)

    4,021 Sq. Ft. Top-floor Penthouse! Step into one of Downtown’s most expansive residences. Elevated Living in the Heart of Downtown, perfectly designed for those who love to host and crave the pulse of city life. A massive 1-bedroom footprint featuring an oversized entertainment wing with panoramic skyline views from the 26th floor. The monthly maintenance fee is truly all-inclusive, covering all utilities (electricity, water, trash, cable) plus building insurance and amenities. Enjoy 24/7 porter service, a fitness center, and a resort-style pool—all without leaving the building Steps from the METRORail, world-class dining, and the Toyota Center.

13. 2010-10-05
    historical
14. 2009-12-07
    listed $399,000
15. 2009-12-03
    historical
16. 2008-11-11
    listed $550,000
17. 2008-11-06
    historical
18. 2008-05-21
    listed $750,000
19. 2007-12-01
    historical
20. 2006-12-05
    listed $625,000
21. 2006-05-15
    historical
22. 2005-11-15
    listed $750,000
23. 2004-11-18
    historical
24. 2004-05-18
    listed $995,000
25. 1998-05-27
    soldstatus
26. 1998-05-26
    soldstatus $725,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $11,104 · $925/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,104 · $925/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $80,173
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$11,104
• − Insurance: −$2,797
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,414
• − Management: −$6,414
• − HOA: −$56,196
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable loss: −$36,787
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,829
• After-tax cash flow: $-23,098/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,015
• Household income: $86,394
• Rent vs Own: 91.8% rent · 8.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1116.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 35% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 16% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.74%
• Current HPI: 152.5126
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-44.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $399,900 HARMLS
• 2010-10-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-12-07 Listed $399,000 HARMLS
• 2009-12-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-11-11 Listed $550,000 HARMLS
• 2008-11-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-05-21 Listed $750,000 HARMLS
• 2007-12-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-12-05 Listed $625,000 HARMLS
• 2006-05-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-11-15 Listed $750,000 HARMLS
• 2004-11-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-05-18 Listed $995,000 HARMLS
• 1998-05-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $725,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,104 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.