15 Derby Ln · Lugoff, SC 29078

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,317 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 2002 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Major price improvement! Move in ready! This spacious home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. Owner's bedroom features 2 walk-in closets. The kitchen has a newer refrigerator, dishwasher, microwave, and garbage disposal. Large sized backyard with shed that that backs up to wooded area. Located only minutes from shopping and restaurants. Easy access to I-20 and I-77. Disclaimer: CMLS has not reviewed and, therefore, does not endorse vendors who may appear in listings.

Key facts

• Walk-in closets
• Newer refrigerator
• Large sized backyard

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• NEWER REFRIGERATOR
• LARGE SIZED BACKYARD
• BACKS UP TO WOODED AREA
• EASY ACCESS TO I-20
• EASY ACCESS TO I-77

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 0.5 acre lot

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story property
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Paved road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Interior features: Central heating and central air conditioning

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $330 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#47 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Kershaw 01 (rural): math 38% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #25 of 80 in SC (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lugoff Elementary (math 44% / reading 51%, grade D, #199 of 597 statewide, top 35%, 526 students, 100% FRL); Lugoff-Elgin High (math 65% / reading 89%, grade A-, #28 of 196 statewide, top 16%, 1,744 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 49% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 62% at this address vs 44% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Kershaw 01 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 178 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 491 units permitted in Kershaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kershaw County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.07%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-11,440
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $16,902
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29078

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,017 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,588/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $330

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,600

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $443	-5% $386	+0% $330	+5% $273	+10% $216
Rent	-10% $170	-5% $250	+0% $330	+5% $409	+10% $489
Rate	-1.0pp $430	-0.5pp $380	base $330	+0.5pp $278	+1.0pp $225

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
43 Derby Ln Lugoff, SC	4.0	2.5	1818	$2,150	$1.18	15d	1	0.08mi
139 Triumph Ave Unit C Lugoff, SC	3.0	2.5	1485	$1,899	$1.28	15d	1	0.77mi
260 Pine Point Rd Unit C Lugoff, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$1,900	$1.42	12d	1	0.83mi
300 Pine Point Rd Unit D Lugoff, SC	3.0	2.5	1470	$1,750	$1.19	4d	1	0.87mi
1292 Champions Rest Rd Unit A Lugoff, SC	3.0	2.5	1383	$2,100	$1.52	24d	1	0.91mi
1302 Champions Rest Rd Unit C Lugoff, SC	3.0	2.5	1383	$2,000	$1.45	4d	1	0.91mi
1302 Champions Rest Rd Unit B Lugoff, SC	3.0	2.5	1383	$1,900	$1.37	4d	1	0.92mi
40 State Rd S-28-910 Lugoff, SC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	930	$1,249	$1.34	3d	3	0.93mi
186 State Rd S-28-743 Lugoff, SC	2.0–3.0	2.0	1025	$1,199	$1.17	3d	6	1.18mi
148 Standard Warehouse Rd Unit 148B Lugoff, SC	2.0	1.5	1190	$1,250	$1.05	24d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $199,900 Pending 84 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,900 Active - Contingent 83 DOM
3. 2026-05-18
   historical Active - Contingent
4. 2026-05-04
   price $199,900
5. 2026-03-09
   listed $210,000 Active
6. 2026-01-23
   status Pending
7. 2026-01-05
   listed $210,000 Active
8. 2024-05-22
   price $210,000
9. 2024-05-09
   listed $225,000 Active
10. 2023-03-29
    soldstatus $210,000
11. 2023-03-06
    status Active
12. 2023-03-01
    listed $215,000 Active
13. 2015-09-03
    soldstatus $90,000
14. 2004-07-21
    soldstatus $19,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,588 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,588 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,206
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,588
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,936
• − Management: −$1,936
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $733
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$176
• After-tax cash flow: $3,780/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kershaw 01
• NCES district ID: 4502550
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,585
• Composite: 37.66/100
• National rank: #4371
• State rank: #25 of 80 in SC

Livability — Lugoff

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #6636

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lugoff, SC
• County: Kershaw County · 47,655 people
• City population: 16,283
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• Population (ZIP): 16,283
• Household income: $67,727
• Rent vs Own: 12.4% rent · 87.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 61.0

Population outlook (Kershaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 67,683 people
• By 2030: 69,374 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 71,936 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 73,292 · +8.3%
• By 2075: 75,762 · +11.9%
• By 2100: 72,620 · +7.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Kershaw

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.2) · D 35.3% · R 63.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -18.7pp · 2024: -28.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.2 2020: R+23.1 2016: R+24.8 2012: R+18.6 2008: R+18.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.83%
• Current HPI: 211.3661
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

+952.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Contingent — Consolidated MLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $199,900 Consolidated MLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $210,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2026-01-23 Pending — Consolidated MLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $210,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2024-05-22 Price Changed $210,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2024-05-09 Listed $225,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2023-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 2023-03-06 Relisted — Consolidated MLS
• 2023-03-01 Listed $215,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2015-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2004-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,588 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.