6532 Hurley Rd · Grundy, VA 24620

$80,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,222 sqft · Manufactured public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1984 0.87 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Appreciation +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

ONE LEVEL LIVING! 3 BEDROOM 1-1/2 BATH LOCATED ON ALMOST ONE ACRE. THIS WELL LOVED HOME IS LOCATED WITHIN WALKING DISTANCE OF HURLEY ELEMENTARY AND HIGH SCHOOLS. BEAUTIFUL LEVEL YARD THAT HAS YELLOW FORSYNTHIABUSHES IN BLOOM AND A HEALTHY PATCH OF RED RASPBERRIES. IN THE SIDE YARD, THERE IS A BABBLING STREAM WITH THE PEACEFUL SOUND OF FLOWING WATER. OUT BACK THERE IS A COVERED GAZEBO AND REAR DECK SO YOU CAN SIP YOUR TEA OR JUST SIT AND PONDER:)

Key facts

• Covered gazebo
• Level yard
• One level living

Tags

• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• LEVEL YARD
• COVERED GAZEBO
• REAR DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $406 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#309 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Buchanan County Public School District (rural): math 52% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #76 of 131 in VA (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hurley Elementary/Middle (math 43% / reading 61%, grade C-, #696 of 1,108 statewide, top 66%, 357 students, 94% FRL); Hurley High (math 67% / reading 72%, grade B, #159 of 319 statewide, top 53%, 216 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 62% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Buchanan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Buchanan County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $77,600 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.74%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $12,847
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $44,325
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24620

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,107 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $195/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $406

Break-even live

Break-even rent $594

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $451	-5% $428	+0% $406	+5% $383	+10% $361
Rent	-10% $318	-5% $362	+0% $406	+5% $450	+10% $493
Rate	-1.0pp $446	-0.5pp $426	base $406	+0.5pp $385	+1.0pp $364

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-23
   listed $80,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $195 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $656 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$461/yr (+$38/mo · 237.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥96°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,289
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$195
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,063
• − Management: −$1,063
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $3,760
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$902
• After-tax cash flow: $3,967/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buchanan County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100510
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $29,669
• Composite: 47.84/100
• National rank: #2221
• State rank: #76 of 131 in VA

Livability — Grundy

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #309
• US rank: #11111

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,539

Population outlook (Buchanan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,160 people
• By 2030: 18,734 · -7.1%
• By 2040: 16,071 · -20.3%
• By 2050: 13,815 · -31.5%
• By 2075: 10,376 · -48.5%
• By 2100: 8,432 · -58.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Buchanan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.6) · D 14.5% · R 85.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -65.1pp toward R · 2008: -5.5pp · 2024: -70.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.6 2020: R+67.6 2016: R+60.4 2012: R+34.7 2008: R+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.23%
• Current HPI: 111.6007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — SWVAR
• 2026-03-23 Listed $80,000 SWVAR

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $195 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.