944 5th St · Lyons, OR 97358

$284,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 946 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1958 8,276 sqft lot $301/sqft · 14% below area Est $329k · 14% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Quaint and comfortable, this nicely designed cottage offers hardwood floors, efficient kitchen, an oversized detached, car port with storage space. Enjoy the mountain views from front yard and proximity to canyon recreation areas and great fishing on the Santiam river. This property is eligible under the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative through 05/30/2026.

Key facts

• Efficient kitchen
• Hardwood floors
• Mountain views

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• EFFICIENT KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED DETACHED CAR PORT
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Level lot on a paved, public road; Irregular lot dimensions; Approximately 0.19 acre lot; Territorial view
• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Gas fuel
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Territorial view; Unattached property; Main level living area
• Construction: Built in 1958; Metal roof; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Yard; Lap and wood siding; Other exterior materials

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (main level); Second bedroom (main level); Third bedroom (main level)
• Flooring: Wood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Wood floors; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas hot water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-189 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (11.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (30.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (30.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#176 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• North Santiam SD 29J (town): math 75% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #1 of 58 in OR (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Mari-Linn Elementary School (184 students, 70% FRL); Stayton Middle School (450 students, 71% FRL); Stayton High School (697 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 46% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 311 units permitted in Linn County in 2024 (60 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Linn County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,520 (30.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.85%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $329,392
• List price: $284,900
• Delta: -8.95%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
905 Front St	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	910 (-4%)	7mo	$299,900	$330	51
345 Cedar St	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,035 (+9%)	10mo	$310,000	$300	50
21765 Ferry Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,068 (+13%)	4mo	$345,000	$323	46
11363 Branch Ln	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,018 (+8%)	15mo	$350,000	$344	43
286 9th St	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	876 (-7%)	23mo	$247,500	$283	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-58,339
• Equity at exit: $42,480

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-66,767
• Equity at exit: $24,633

Cash invested: $79,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97358

• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,975 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,646/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-189

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,215

Max offer price $251,426

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-28	-5% $-109	+0% $-189	+5% $-270	+10% $-351
Rent	-10% $-346	-5% $-268	+0% $-189	+5% $-111	+10% $-33
Rate	-1.0pp $-46	-0.5pp $-117	base $-189	+0.5pp $-263	+1.0pp $-338

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,225
• Closing costs: $8,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $284,900 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $284,900 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $284,900 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on marketlisting id $284,900 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $299,900 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,900 Active under Contract 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active under Contract 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active under Contract 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,900 Active under Contract 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active under Contract 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active under Contract 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active under Contract 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active under Contract 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,900 Active under Contract 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    historical Active under Contract 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (360 chars)

    Quaint and comfortable, this nicely designed cottage offers hardwood floors, efficient kitchen, an oversized detached, car port with storage space. Enjoy the mountain views from front yard and proximity to canyon recreation areas and great fishing on the Santiam river. This property is eligible under the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative through 05/30/2026.

17. 2026-04-30
    listed $299,900 Active 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (360 chars)

    Quaint and comfortable, this nicely designed cottage offers hardwood floors, efficient kitchen, an oversized detached, car port with storage space. Enjoy the mountain views from front yard and proximity to canyon recreation areas and great fishing on the Santiam river. This property is eligible under the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative through 05/30/2026.

18. 2026-02-13
    historical
19. 2025-12-06
    price $276,675
20. 2025-11-29
    listed $100,000 Active
21. 2022-01-10
    soldstatus $267,000 Sold
22. 2022-01-10
    soldstatus $267,000
23. 2021-12-14
    historical Active under Contract
24. 2021-12-10
    status Active
25. 2021-12-03
    historical Active under Contract
26. 2021-11-22
    listed $275,900 Active
27. 2014-05-09
    soldstatus $60,300 Sold
28. 2014-05-09
    soldstatus $60,300 Sold
29. 2014-04-15
    status Pending
30. 2014-04-15
    status Pending
31. 2014-04-07
    listed $56,000 Active
32. 2014-04-03
    listed $56,000 Active
33. 2006-05-26
    soldstatus $136,900
34. 1994-01-31
    soldstatus $53,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,646 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,764 · $230/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,118/yr (+$93/mo · 67.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,702
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,959
• − Property taxes: −$1,646
• − Insurance: −$1,424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,896
• − Management: −$1,896
• − Depreciation: −$8,288
• Taxable loss: −$7,407
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,778
• After-tax cash flow: $-496/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Santiam SD 29J
• NCES district ID: 4100020
• Math proficiency: 75% ▲ 37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▲ 18.00%
• Median HH income: $54,619
• Composite: 63.96/100
• National rank: #584
• State rank: #1 of 58 in OR

Livability — Lyons

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #176
• US rank: #10624

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lyons, OR
• Population (ZIP): 2,502

Population outlook (Linn County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 127,026 people
• By 2030: 129,540 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 132,780 · +4.5%
• By 2050: 133,614 · +5.2%
• By 2075: 129,061 · +1.6%
• By 2100: 112,224 · -11.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Linn

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.4) · D 36.2% · R 60.6% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.4pp · 2024: -24.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.4 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.8 2012: R+17.2 2008: R+11.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -196.89%
• Current HPI: 219.0268
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+437.5% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $284,900 WVMLS
• 2026-06-15 Listed $284,900 RMLS
• 2026-06-11 Relisted — WVMLS
• 2026-05-06 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $299,900 WVMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $276,675 WVMLS
• 2025-11-29 Listed $100,000 WVMLS
• 2022-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $267,000 Public Records
• 2022-01-10 Sold (MLS) $267,000 WVMLS
• 2021-12-14 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2021-12-10 Relisted — WVMLS
• 2021-12-03 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2021-11-22 Listed $275,900 WVMLS
• 2014-05-09 Sold (MLS) $60,300 WVMLS
• 2014-05-09 Sold (MLS) $60,300 RMLS
• 2014-04-15 Pending — WVMLS
• 2014-04-15 Pending — RMLS
• 2014-04-07 Listed $56,000 RMLS
• 2014-04-03 Listed $56,000 WVMLS
• 2006-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $136,900 Public Records
• 1994-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,646 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.