338 Blair Ave · St. Paul, MN 55103

$225,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,016 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1924 6,577 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special! Excellent opportunity to build equity. New deck installed in 2021 and brand new furnace and a/c. Great front porch and fully fenced yard. Bring your ideas and make it shine!

Key facts

• Near downtown
• Natural light
• Near parks

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• NEAR DOWNTOWN
• NEAR PARKS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water (in street); City sewer (in street); Natural gas
• Home design: Residential single-story home; Main entry and living areas on main level
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Stone and vinyl exterior; Lot approximately 0.151 acres (110 x 60)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (mix of main and lower levels)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Basement (block foundation)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $621 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $222k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 44 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,649/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 787% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $221,625 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.83%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $5,907
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $67,879
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55103

• Home prices YoY: -9.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,649 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$198 /mo · $2,376/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $621

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,863

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $748	-5% $685	+0% $621	+5% $557	+10% $494
Rent	-10% $412	-5% $516	+0% $621	+5% $726	+10% $830
Rate	-1.0pp $734	-0.5pp $678	base $621	+0.5pp $563	+1.0pp $503

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
255 Western Ave N Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$3,700	$3.53	2d	23	0.84mi
101 10th St E Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	887	$2,490	$2.81	2d	25	1.12mi
253 Kellogg Blvd W Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	1208	$3,198	$2.65	3d	12	1.17mi
330 9th St E St Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	978	$2,495	$2.55	3d	3	1.41mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-13
   historical Contingent - Other
2. 2026-05-08
   listed $225,000 Active
3. 2025-04-01
   soldstatus $200,000
4. 2022-11-28
   soldstatus $105,000
5. 2022-11-23
   soldstatus $105,000 Sold 191-char remark

   Show marketing remark (191 chars)

   Investor special! Excellent opportunity to build equity. New deck installed in 2021 and brand new furnace and a/c. Great front porch and fully fenced yard. Bring your ideas and make it shine!

6. 2022-11-01
   status Pending 191-char remark

   Show marketing remark (191 chars)

   Investor special! Excellent opportunity to build equity. New deck installed in 2021 and brand new furnace and a/c. Great front porch and fully fenced yard. Bring your ideas and make it shine!

7. 2022-10-26
   listed $110,000 Active 191-char remark

   Show marketing remark (191 chars)

   Investor special! Excellent opportunity to build equity. New deck installed in 2021 and brand new furnace and a/c. Great front porch and fully fenced yard. Bring your ideas and make it shine!

8. 2022-10-26
   historical

   Show marketing remark (191 chars)

   Investor special! Excellent opportunity to build equity. New deck installed in 2021 and brand new furnace and a/c. Great front porch and fully fenced yard. Bring your ideas and make it shine!

9. 2022-10-10
   price $130,000
10. 2022-09-27
    status Active
11. 2022-09-26
    historical Contingent - Inspection
12. 2022-09-14
    listed $140,000 Active
13. 2012-08-09
    soldstatus $75,000
14. 2012-08-03
    soldstatus $75,000
15. 2012-06-07
    historical
16. 2012-05-07
    listed $94,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,376 · $198/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,448 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: +$72/yr (+$6/mo · 3.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,787
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,376
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,543
• − Management: −$2,543
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $4,051
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$972
• After-tax cash flow: $6,479/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 13,125
• Household income: $48,390
• Rent vs Own: 58.3% rent · 41.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 787.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 28% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Vietnam, Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 16% Spanish 5% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.28%
• Current HPI: 327.7672
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+139.4% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Listed $225,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2022-11-28 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2022-11-23 Sold (MLS) $105,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-01 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-26 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-26 Listed $110,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-10 Price Changed $130,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-27 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-26 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-14 Listed $140,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2012-08-03 Sold (MLS) $75,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-07 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-07 Listed $94,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,376 · +23.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.