1333 Lower Jackstown Rd · Carlisle, KY 40311

$100,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,087 sqft · Other · 134 Days on market

Built 1998 1.01 ac lot $48/sqft · 36% below area Est $156k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy comfortable one-level living just minutes from town in this 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath home offering 2,087 square feet of living space on a generous one acre lot. The home features an open floor plan that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining area, and family room; ideal for everyday living and entertaining. An oversized (690 sq/ft) attached two car garage offers ample space for vehicles, storage, or workshop. Built on a slab foundation, the one story design delivers easy accessibility and low maintenance living. Plenty of outdoor space surrounds the home, providing room for gardening, recreation, or future improvements. Whether you're looking for a peaceful country setting close to town or a functional, spacious home with room to grow, this property checks all the boxes. Additional acreage available.

Key facts

• Slab foundation
• Open floor plan
• Outdoor space

Tags

• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ATTACHED TWO CAR GARAGE
• SLAB FOUNDATION
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• PEACEFUL COUNTRY SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $321 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.7% in Carlisle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#349 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Nicholas County (rural): math 22% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #132 of 165 in KY (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Nicholas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nicholas County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.75%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,534
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -35.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $74,910
• Equity at exit: $90,088

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.31×
• Total profit: $204,572
• Equity at exit: $194,278

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40311

• Home prices YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,281 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $321

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 134 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $100,000 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $200,000 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 117 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 116 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 115 DOM
17. 2026-02-04
    listed $200,000 Active 819-char remark

    Show marketing remark (819 chars)

    Enjoy comfortable one-level living just minutes from town in this 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath home offering 2,087 square feet of living space on a generous one acre lot. The home features an open floor plan that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining area, and family room; ideal for everyday living and entertaining. An oversized (690 sq/ft) attached two car garage offers ample space for vehicles, storage, or workshop. Built on a slab foundation, the one story design delivers easy accessibility and low maintenance living. Plenty of outdoor space surrounds the home, providing room for gardening, recreation, or future improvements. Whether you're looking for a peaceful country setting close to town or a functional, spacious home with room to grow, this property checks all the boxes. Additional acreage available.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,369
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,230
• − Management: −$1,230
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $2,400
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$576
• After-tax cash flow: $3,273/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nicholas County
• NCES district ID: 2104470
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $39,178
• Composite: 22.65/100
• National rank: #8056
• State rank: #132 of 165 in KY

Livability — Carlisle

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #349
• US rank: #16526

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,676

Population outlook (Nicholas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,953 people
• By 2030: 6,815 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 6,489 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 6,119 · -12.0%
• By 2075: 5,449 · -21.6%
• By 2100: 4,901 · -29.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nicholas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.0) · D 24.8% · R 73.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.2pp · 2024: -49.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.0 2020: R+42.8 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+24.6 2008: R+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.72%
• Current HPI: 282.0093
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Listed $200,000 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

-5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $48 · -14.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.