640 Elmwood Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14301

$55,000

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1930 5,280 sqft lot Est $69k · 20% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

640 Elmwood Ave is a duplex in the Airbnb zone of Niagara Falls. The property is in need of a complete rehab and is priced for a cash sale. Each unit has three bedrooms, living room, formal dining room, kitchen and a bathroom. There is a full attic and a full basement. It is well worth the effort of bringing life back into a property that is nestled right in between operating Airbnb's. Located at Whirlpool and Elmwood Ave, just moments away from the Rainbow & Whirlpool bridges into Canada. Seller financing available.

Key facts

• Airbnb zone
• Full basement
• Duplex

Tags

• DUPLEX
• AIRBNB ZONE
• FULL ATTIC
• FULL BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive. Per door: $778/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $52k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 40.2% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,510/mo this rent would consume 87% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 954% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $51,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 40.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 121.23%
• DSCR: 6.39
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $69,120
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
814 Willow Ave	0.31mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,072 (+8%)	2mo	$140,000	$68	66
466 6th St	0.55mi	7/3.0 (+1)	1,901 (-1%)	16mo	$120,000	$63	51
1402 Walnut Ave	0.61mi	6/2.0	2,033 (+6%)	21mo	$135,000	$66	44
514 15th St	0.71mi	6/2.0	1,992 (+4%)	20mo	$50,000	$25	44
1514 Whitney Ave	0.61mi	5/2.0 (-1)	1,824 (-5%)	19mo	$55,000	$30	42
466 4th St	0.58mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,114 (+10%)	16mo	$58,000	$27	38
445 6th St	0.59mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,016 (+5%)	22mo	$72,000	$36	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.25×
• Total profit: $142,374
• Equity at exit: $49,548

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 25.31×
• Total profit: $374,340
• Equity at exit: $106,853

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14301

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,510 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,389/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $1,556

Break-even live

Break-even rent $541

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,587	-5% $1,571	+0% $1,556	+5% $1,540	+10% $1,525
Rent	-10% $1,357	-5% $1,457	+0% $1,556	+5% $1,655	+10% $1,754
Rate	-1.0pp $1,583	-0.5pp $1,570	base $1,556	+0.5pp $1,542	+1.0pp $1,527

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1	$2,510
Total (2 units)			$2,510

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2025-08-13
   status Pending
2. 2025-06-11
   listed $55,000 Active
3. 2024-09-25
   historical
4. 2024-09-16
   status Active
5. 2024-09-05
   status Pending
6. 2024-06-25
   listed $59,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,389 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,389 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,120
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$1,389
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,410
• − Management: −$2,410
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $18,956
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,549
• After-tax cash flow: $14,120/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,923
• Household income: $34,549
• Rent vs Own: 54.1% rent · 45.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 25% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.41%
• Current HPI: 266.1457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.79%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-8.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-13 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-06-11 Listed $55,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-09-25 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2024-09-16 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2024-09-05 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2024-06-25 Listed $59,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,389 · -5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.