519 Wales Ct #519 · Saw Creek, PA 18324

$220,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,225 sqft · Townhouse · 84 Days on market

Built 1987 Good condition 2,178 sqft lot $180/sqft · 56% above area $167/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Searching for a cute place or investment opportunity? Look no further! Welcome to this charming contemporary townhome, offering a perfect blend of convenience and style. Inside, you'll find a cozy yet modern living space, with ample natural light streaming in through the slider doors that lead to the large back deck. While not actually attached via a wall, you will still manage to enjoy your own home and not be connected to someone else's. Imagine enjoying your morning coffee on the sweet back deck or hosting summer barbecues. With a little creative touch and vision, this townhome has the potential to become your dream home or a lucrative investment opportunity. Come see it today!

Key facts

• Large back deck
• Natural light
• $167 HOA

Tags

• LARGE BACK DECK
• NATURAL LIGHT
• CONTEMPORARY TOWNHOME
• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $220k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $51 ($608/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $207k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.5% in Saw Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,538 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• East Stroudsburg Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #413 of 539 in PA (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Middle Smithfield El Sch (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,049 of 1,518 statewide, top 71%, 429 students, 66% FRL); Lehman Intermediate Sch (math 11% / reading 44%, grade F, #399 of 512 statewide, top 79%, 603 students, 59% FRL); East Stroudsburg Shs North (math 29% / reading 24%, grade F, #371 of 437 statewide, top 85%, 940 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 42% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 293 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $206,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.99%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $141,046
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: 55.98%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
503 English Ct	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-2%)	2mo	$160,000	$133	91
159 Stream Ct	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,090 (-11%)	2mo	$141,130	$129	77
518 Wales Ct	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,379 (+13%)	2mo	$175,000	$127	76
320 Crewe Ct	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-2%)	17mo	$170,000	$142	74
254 Bristol Way	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,071 (-13%)	17mo	$129,000	$120	62
140 English Ct	0.13mi	2/3.0	1,090 (-11%)	13mo	$210,000	$193	61
40 Delaware Ct W	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,168 (-5%)	18mo	$365,000	$313	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.51% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $35,811
• Equity at exit: $105,249

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $115,972
• Equity at exit: $167,303

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18324

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 293
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,300/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$167
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,136

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $203	-5% $127	+0% $51	+5% $-25	+10% $-101
Rent	-10% $-123	-5% $-36	+0% $51	+5% $138	+10% $224
Rate	-1.0pp $161	-0.5pp $107	base $51	+0.5pp $-6	+1.0pp $-64

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
272 Stafford Dr Bushkill, PA	3.0	2.0	1218	$2,200	$1.81	0d	1	0.59mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $167 · $2,004/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $220,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $220,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $220,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $220,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $220,000 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $220,000 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $220,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $220,000 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 63 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 62 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $220,000 Active 61 DOM
19. 2026-03-30
    listed $220,000 Active 689-char remark

    Show marketing remark (689 chars)

    Searching for a cute place or investment opportunity? Look no further! Welcome to this charming contemporary townhome, offering a perfect blend of convenience and style. Inside, you'll find a cozy yet modern living space, with ample natural light streaming in through the slider doors that lead to the large back deck. While not actually attached via a wall, you will still manage to enjoy your own home and not be connected to someone else's. Imagine enjoying your morning coffee on the sweet back deck or hosting summer barbecues. With a little creative touch and vision, this townhome has the potential to become your dream home or a lucrative investment opportunity. Come see it today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,300
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − HOA: −$2,004
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$2,951
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$708
• After-tax cash flow: $1,316/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming contemporary townhome is in good condition with minor cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Stroudsburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4208670
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $57,142
• Composite: 30.13/100
• National rank: #6332
• State rank: #413 of 539 in PA

Livability — Saw Creek

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1538
• US rank: #20241

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saw Creek, PA
• Population (ZIP): 9,591

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 21% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 3% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Estonian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.51%
• Current HPI: 243.6754
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $220,000 PWMLS