198 Neil Dr · Smithville, TN 37166

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured · 64 Days on market

Built 2001 Poor condition 0.32 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Motivated Seller!!!! Do not miss this opportunity to own a home near a beautiful lake. This home sits on a hill in a quiet neighborhood. You are minutes from Center Hill Lake! This could be a permanent residence or just a getaway from everyday life. You will have 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full baths and plenty of room to entertain with the large open concept living room and kitchen. The view from the front porch is perfect for relaxing! The roof is new, gutters cleaned, whole house has been pressure washed, all interior walls have fresh paint.

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• Built 2001
• Listed 63 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38 ($455/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (9.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.4% in Smithville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#164 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Dekalb County (rural): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #115 of 139 in TN (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Smithville Elementary (599 students, 0% FRL); Dekalb Middle School (math 13% / reading 19%, grade F, #223 of 333 statewide, top 68%, 526 students, 0% FRL); De Kalb County High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #163 of 332 statewide, top 51%, 807 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 56% district-wide (56 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 361 active listings in the ZIP; 143 units permitted in DeKalb County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeKalb County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $185k implies a 429% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $166,635 (9.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.88%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-27,537
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-20,767
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37166

• Home prices YoY: -6.8%
• Active inventory: 361
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,666 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,775/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,618

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $166	-5% $102	+0% $38	+5% $-26	+10% $-90
Rent	-10% $-94	-5% $-28	+0% $38	+5% $104	+10% $170
Rate	-1.0pp $131	-0.5pp $85	base $38	+0.5pp $-10	+1.0pp $-59

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   pricedays on market $185,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $195,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $195,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $195,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $195,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 43 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 42 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $195,000 Active 41 DOM
18. 2026-05-18
    price $195,000 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    Motivated Seller!!!! Do not miss this opportunity to own a home near a beautiful lake. This home sits on a hill in a quiet neighborhood. You are minutes from Center Hill Lake! This could be a permanent residence or just a getaway from everyday life. You will have 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full baths and plenty of room to entertain with the large open concept living room and kitchen. The view from the front porch is perfect for relaxing! The roof is new, gutters cleaned, whole house has been pressure washed, all interior walls have fresh paint.

19. 2026-04-20
    listed $200,000 Active 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    Motivated Seller!!!! Do not miss this opportunity to own a home near a beautiful lake. This home sits on a hill in a quiet neighborhood. You are minutes from Center Hill Lake! This could be a permanent residence or just a getaway from everyday life. You will have 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full baths and plenty of room to entertain with the large open concept living room and kitchen. The view from the front porch is perfect for relaxing! The roof is new, gutters cleaned, whole house has been pressure washed, all interior walls have fresh paint.

20. 2026-04-15
    historical $200,000 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    Motivated Seller!!!! Do not miss this opportunity to own a home near a beautiful lake. This home sits on a hill in a quiet neighborhood. You are minutes from Center Hill Lake! This could be a permanent residence or just a getaway from everyday life. You will have 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full baths and plenty of room to entertain with the large open concept living room and kitchen. The view from the front porch is perfect for relaxing! The roof is new, gutters cleaned, whole house has been pressure washed, all interior walls have fresh paint.

21. 2017-11-08
    soldstatus $35,000 130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (130 chars)

    Nice 2 bedroom trailer near lake, newly remodeled. All furniture in house staying. nice big lot, plenty of room for some lake FUN.

22. 2017-08-02
    listed $39,900 130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (130 chars)

    Nice 2 bedroom trailer near lake, newly remodeled. All furniture in house staying. nice big lot, plenty of room for some lake FUN.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,996
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,775
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,600
• − Management: −$1,600
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$2,648
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$635
• After-tax cash flow: $1,091/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including landscaping, exterior cleaning, and interior updates. Improvements in these areas would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Overgrown vegetation — Safety hazard and poor curb appeal
• Major Debris — Safety hazard and poor curb appeal
• Major Exterior siding — Needs cleaning and possibly repainting

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both Exterior cleaning and repainting — Improves curb appeal and property value
• Both Interior updates — Enhances living space and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Overgrown vegetation · Safety hazard and poor curb appeal	Major	$15,000–50,000
Debris · Safety hazard and poor curb appeal	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · Needs cleaning and possibly repainting	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Exterior cleaning and repainting — Improves curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Interior updates — Enhances living space and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dekalb County
• NCES district ID: 4700990
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,832
• Composite: 16.73/100
• National rank: #9165
• State rank: #115 of 139 in TN

Livability — Smithville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #164
• US rank: #14208

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,116

Population outlook (DeKalb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,289 people
• By 2030: 20,738 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 21,411 · +5.5%
• By 2050: 21,751 · +7.2%
• By 2075: 22,170 · +9.3%
• By 2100: 21,381 · +5.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · DeKalb

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.2% · R 80.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.0pp toward R · 2008: -17.7pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+57.8 2016: R+51.9 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.64%
• Current HPI: 324.0199
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+388.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $195,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Listed $200,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Coming Soon $200,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-08 Sold (MLS) $35,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-02 Listed $39,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid