7018 Lost Thicket Dr · Houston, TX 77085

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,415 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1985 5,776 sqft lot $134/sqft · 22% below area Est $245k · 22% under $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful home in a great neighborhood! Great investment opportunity or perfect home for a family. Garage has been converted into an additional bedroom. Long driveway and quiet neighborhood. Home sold as is.

Key facts

• 5,776 sq ft lot
• Built 1985
• Listed 25 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Managed by High Sierra Management; Association fee $450 annually

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (first-floor living areas)
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 1985; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Lot includes miscellaneous/other features

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor) — approx. 14 x 12; Bedroom (first floor) — approx. 12 x 12; Bedroom (first floor) — approx. 10 x 12; Bedroom (first floor) — approx. 10 x 10
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: One fireplace; 6 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-272 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (25.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fondren El (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 301 students, 96% FRL); Lawson Middle (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 1,274 students, 96% FRL); Madison H S (math 9% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,537 of 1,632 statewide, top 94%, 1,924 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 18% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 37 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,886 (25.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.14%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,058
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -22.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7019 River Bluff Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,588 (+12%)	8mo	$217,000	$137	72
13511 Titus Pt	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+7%)	6mo	$245,000	$162	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.21% appreciation · 1.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-35,597
• Equity at exit: $43,911

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-48,123
• Equity at exit: $44,466

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77085

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,550 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$384 /mo · $4,603/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $-272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,895

Max offer price $141,886

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-165	-5% $-219	+0% $-272	+5% $-326	+10% $-380
Rent	-10% $-395	-5% $-334	+0% $-272	+5% $-211	+10% $-150
Rate	-1.0pp $-177	-0.5pp $-224	base $-272	+0.5pp $-322	+1.0pp $-372

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13939 Hillcroft Ave Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	985	$2,254	$2.29	5d	22	0.40mi
13939 Hillcroft Ave Unit 13976 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1089	$1,703	$1.56	22d	1	0.40mi
13939 Hillcroft Ave Unit 13972 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,164	$1.54	22d	1	0.40mi
12800 Dunlap St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	851	$1,199	$1.41	1d	63	0.44mi
13960 Hillcroft St Unit 425 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1332	$1,540	$1.16	9d	1	0.58mi
13960 Hillcroft St Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1332	$1,524	$1.14	0d	1	0.58mi
13960 Hillcroft St Unit 14017 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1332	$1,540	$1.16	18d	1	0.58mi
12202 Ormandy St Unit 12202 Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1352	$1,200	$0.89	5d	1	0.83mi
12214 Ormandy St Unit 12214 Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1352	$1,200	$0.89	5d	1	0.86mi
20 Alvarado Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	938	$997	$1.06	45d	1	0.89mi
20 Alvarado Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	938	$997	$1.06	22d	1	0.89mi
12500 Dunlap St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	907	$1,220	$1.34	0d	59	0.89mi
5751 Firenza Dr Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	1777	$5,750	$3.24	0d	1	0.95mi
12351 Bob White Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$987	$0.99	15d	1	1.06mi
12351 Bob White Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$987	$0.99	45d	1	1.06mi
14550 Fonmeadow Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1057	$1,350	$1.28	45d	2	1.10mi
12500 Sandpiper Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	1018	$1,094	$1.07	45d	6	1.13mi
6363 W Airport Blvd Apt 721 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	940	$875	$0.93	45d	1	1.14mi
6363 W Airport Blvd Unit 2224 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1033	$985	$0.95	18d	1	1.14mi
6363 W Airport Blvd Apt 1823 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	875	$790	$0.90	45d	1	1.14mi
6363 W Airport Blvd Unit 622 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	946	$974	$1.03	18d	1	1.17mi
6023 Heatherbrook Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,899	$1.29	1d	1	1.17mi
6038 W Airport Blvd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1617	$1,755	$1.09	15d	1	1.20mi
6363 W Airport Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	744	$985	$1.32	9d	1	1.21mi
12115 Hillcroft Ave Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1837	$1,961	$1.07	45d	1	1.26mi
6007 Dryad Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1769	$2,175	$1.23	0d	1	1.32mi
6633 W Airport Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1063	$1,200	$1.13	45d	2	1.32mi
12245 Sunset Meadow Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1257	$1,515	$1.21	45d	1	1.35mi
12247 Sunset Meadow Ln Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$1,895	$1.91	5d	1	1.35mi
6633 W Airport Blvd #902 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1063	$1,200	$1.13	1d	1	1.36mi
6392 Peacock Hills Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1244	$1,400	$1.13	45d	1	1.40mi
6319 Southwood Ct N Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1102	$1,450	$1.32	45d	1	1.49mi
12271 Fondren Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1007	$1,050	$1.04	20d	1	1.49mi
12271 Fondren Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1007	$1,050	$1.04	24d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $190,000 Pending 25 DOM
2. 2026-05-05
   listed $190,000 Active 207-char remark
3. 2007-09-21
   soldstatus
4. 1993-05-27
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,603 · $384/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,603 · $384/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,604
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$4,603
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,488
• − Management: −$1,488
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$6,552
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,572
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,696/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,513
• Household income: $68,470
• Rent vs Own: 31.6% rent · 68.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 519.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Black 28% Two or more races 19% Native American 6% White 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Vietnam, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 38% English-only · Spanish 57% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.21%
• Current HPI: 254.3084
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.54%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2007-09-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-05-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,603 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.