34 Laurel Trl · Mountain Lodge Park, NY 10950

$223,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1960 0.51 ac lot Est $302k · 26% under ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Blooming Grove! SELLER IS VERY MOTIVATED. THE OWNER IS SEEKING A QUICK CLOSING. THIS PRESENTS AN EXCELLENT OPPORTUNITY FOR A GREAT DEAL. Fully available!! Affordable ranch with ADJOING LOT INCLLUDED! Great ranch featuring a welcoming interior and a good-sized living room. Very good condition with fresh paint. Eat in kitchen with door leading to the back deck. Other features: central air, shed, furnace replaced in 2014. Short ride to public transportation or Metro North Station with major highways and Stewart Airport only a few miles away. Award winning Washingtonville School District. Won't last!

Key facts

• Furnace replaced
• Eat in kitchen
• Back deck

Tags

• EAT IN KITCHEN
• BACK DECK
• CENTRAL AIR
• FURNACE REPLACED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $224k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $358 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $224k).
• Recommended offer: $210k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 5.3% in Mountain Lodge Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#308 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Washingtonville Central School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #288 of 590 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Round Hill Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 653 students, 38% FRL); Washingtonville Middle School (math 21% / reading 50%, grade F, #473 of 729 statewide, top 66%, 900 students, 35% FRL); Washingtonville Senior High School (math 92% / reading 89%, grade A+, #231 of 1,100 statewide, top 21%, 1,318 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools average 34% FRL vs 16% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 316 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,090 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.87%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $302,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39 Hillcrest Trl	0.03mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (+4%)	6mo	$295,000	$295	82
5 Orchard Trl	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	963 (+0%)	6mo	$264,500	$275	74
59 Orchard Trl	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	850 (-12%)	8mo	$217,500	$256	64
15 Herbst Dr	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	876 (-9%)	2mo	$339,000	$387	62
15 Arcadian Trl	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,008 (+5%)	0mo	$162,000	$161	61
19 Grandview Trl	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,050 (+9%)	2mo	$375,000	$357	60
15 Claremont Trl	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (+2%)	8mo	$265,000	$270	60
5 Beverly Trl	0.61mi	3/2.0	900 (-6%)	3mo	$315,000	$350	54
20 Windsor Rd	0.61mi	3/1.0	900 (-6%)	9mo	$284,000	$316	54
9 Ludwig Dr	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	838 (-13%)	2mo	$285,000	$340	54
27 Revere Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,048 (+9%)	9mo	$330,000	$315	46
22 Claremont Trl	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	836 (-13%)	10mo	$250,000	$299	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-17,183
• Equity at exit: $33,325

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-635
• Equity at exit: $19,324

Cash invested: $62,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10950

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 316
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,651 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,172
• Tax from tax record: −$471 /mo · $5,647/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$557
• Net cashflow: $358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,197

Max offer price $223,500

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,875
• Closing costs: $6,705
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
66 Higgins Trl Blooming Grove, NY	2.0	1.5	800	$1,700	$2.12	14d	1	0.19mi
12 Utopian Trl Monroe, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$2,150	$2.53	14d	1	0.23mi
32 Cedar Trl Monroe, NY	3.0	1.0	825	$2,200	$2.67	23d	1	0.25mi
357 Mountain Lodge Rd Monroe, NY	2.0	1.0	760	$2,000	$2.63	14d	1	0.30mi
14 Woodland Cir S Monroe, NY	3.0	1.0	750	$2,100	$2.80	14d	1	0.32mi
25 Gloria Trl Monroe, NY	3.0	1.0	835	$2,200	$2.63	14d	1	0.34mi
26 Oakwood Trl S Monroe, NY	2.0	1.0	696	$1,750	$2.51	14d	1	0.43mi
2 Edgewood Trl Monroe, NY	2.0	1.0	959	$2,400	$2.50	14d	1	0.70mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2025-12-24
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-29
   price $223,500
3. 2025-10-20
   listed $225,000 Active
4. 2025-08-13
   historical
5. 2025-07-22
   price $250,000
6. 2025-07-09
   price $252,000
7. 2025-05-22
   price $254,000
8. 2025-05-14
   status Active
9. 2025-05-02
   price $255,000
10. 2025-05-02
    status Active
11. 2025-02-16
    listed $260,000 Active
12. 2024-05-27
    price $260,000
13. 2024-05-27
    status Active
14. 2024-04-03
    status Pending
15. 2024-02-27
    listed $249,999 Active
16. 2022-10-20
    soldstatus $250,000
17. 2022-10-04
    soldstatus $250,000 Closed
18. 2022-09-07
    status Pending
19. 2022-07-25
    price $264,900
20. 2022-07-01
    listed $299,900 Active
21. 2022-06-24
    historical $299,900
22. 2014-02-06
    historical
23. 2011-09-29
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,647 · $471/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,647 · $471/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,808
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,519
• − Property taxes: −$5,647
• − Insurance: −$1,118
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,545
• − Management: −$2,545
• − Depreciation: −$6,502
• Taxable income: $933
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$224
• After-tax cash flow: $4,075/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Washingtonville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630030
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $89,379
• Composite: 48.15/100
• National rank: #2178
• State rank: #288 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mountain Lodge Park

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #308
• US rank: #5092

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mountain Lodge Park, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 68,136
• Household income: $78,931
• Rent vs Own: 38.6% rent · 61.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3149.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Scandinavian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 33% English-only · German/W. Germanic 52% Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -309.81%
• Current HPI: 314.2081
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.50%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-25.5% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-24 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $223,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-20 Listed $225,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-13 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $252,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $254,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-14 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $255,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-02 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-16 Listed $260,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-27 Price Changed $260,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-27 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-03 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-27 Listed $249,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2022-10-04 Sold (MLS) $250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-07 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-25 Price Changed $264,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-01 Listed $299,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-24 Coming Soon $299,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-02-06 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2011-09-29 Listed — HGMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,647 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.