11 Spinet Dr #11 · Brighton, NY 14625

$138,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 110 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $103/sqft · 71% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

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Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 109 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 3.9% in Brighton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#89 in NY, #1,379 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools B+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D-.
• Penfield Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #67 of 590 in NY (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $960 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $126,399 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.93%
• DSCR: 2.64
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $81,061
• List price: $138,900
• Delta: 71.35%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
36 Sebastian Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,387 (+3%)	10mo	$130,000	$94	80
34 Ewald Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,387 (+3%)	11mo	$130,000	$94	77
1 Beatrice Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,387 (+3%)	13mo	$132,000	$95	72
2 Penview Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (+4%)	9mo	$155,000	$110	69
23 Ewald Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,387 (+3%)	20mo	$136,000	$98	68
26 Fondiller Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-11%)	5mo	$71,000	$59	65
27 Elderberry Cir	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-3%)	24mo	$90,000	$69	64
7 Skyway Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+8%)	8mo	$134,000	$92	62
8 Harway Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,173 (-13%)	7mo	$73,500	$63	60
6 Patio Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,177 (-12%)	18mo	$86,000	$73	58
2 Beatrice	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,143 (-15%)	9mo	$90,000	$79	56
11 Bittersweet Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,150 (-14%)	11mo	$77,000	$67	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $53,764
• Equity at exit: $20,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.73×
• Total profit: $145,144
• Equity at exit: $12,010

Cash invested: $38,892 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14625

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,730 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$728
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$174 /mo · $2,084/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $1,197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,215

Max offer price $138,900

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,293	-5% $1,245	+0% $1,197	+5% $1,149	+10% $1,101
Rent	-10% $981	-5% $1,089	+0% $1,197	+5% $1,305	+10% $1,413
Rate	-1.0pp $1,267	-0.5pp $1,232	base $1,197	+0.5pp $1,161	+1.0pp $1,124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,725
• Closing costs: $4,167
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3540 East Ave Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1261	$4,123	$3.27	3d	10	0.73mi
278 Penn Ln Rochester, NY	2.0	2.0	1184	$2,100	$1.77	4d	1	0.86mi
18 Brook Hill Ln Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	841	$1,915	$2.28	3d	1	0.88mi
3765 East Ave Rochester, NY	2.0	1.5	1826	$2,900	$1.59	3d	1	1.03mi
214 Magnolia Ave East Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $138,900 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $138,900 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $138,900 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $138,900 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $138,900 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-04-29
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7. 2026-04-29
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8. 2026-04-23
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9. 2026-03-31
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10. 2026-03-27
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11. 2026-03-27
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12. 2026-03-05
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13. 2026-03-05
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14. 2026-01-27
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15. 2026-01-27
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16. 2026-01-23
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ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,762
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,781
• − Property taxes: −$2,084
• − Insurance: −$694
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,621
• − Management: −$2,621
• − Depreciation: −$4,041
• Taxable income: $12,920
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,101
• After-tax cash flow: $11,262/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a cosmetic rehab level, featuring a clean and modern kitchen and bathrooms. Potential buyers and tenants can appreciate the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can enhance the kitchen's functionality and appeal to potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern fixtures can enhance the bathrooms' functionality and appeal to potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can enhance the kitchen's functionality and appeal to potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern fixtures can enhance the bathrooms' functionality and appeal to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Penfield Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3622710
• Math proficiency: 77% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $74,802
• Composite: 68.37/100
• National rank: #347
• State rank: #67 of 590 in NY

Livability — Brighton

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #89
• US rank: #1379

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute B- Cost of living C+ Crime D+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,667

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Subsaharan African 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.69%
• Current HPI: 275.9721
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-29 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-23 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-27 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-27 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-05 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-05 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-27 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-27 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-23 Listed $138,900 Zillow